Khurram Ghufran, CFA

Student of the Markets / Investing for the Long-term. All tweets are personal. *Investment Philosophy + Disclaimers in Pinned Tweet*

[Khurram Ghufran, CFA @kghufran]

1) Investment Philosophy: I do not want to box myself into any category (value/growth) but consider myself a bottom-up stock picker. In my view, the best strategy to build long-term wealth is to identify / hold the best companies long-term.

[Khurram Ghufran, CFA @kghufran]

Was driving in Karachi today, and as I navigated the impossible road between the Liaquatabad flyover and underpass, the only thought on my mind was that this should be the ultimate test for Tesla FSD … for me to believe @elonmusk

[Khurram Ghufran, CFA @kghufran]

@DecadeInvestor What about the withholding tax on dividends?

[Khurram Ghufran, CFA @kghufran]

The return to normal is on shaky grounds:

Fed - higher for longer
Earnings - ex-Growth
Valuations - above mean
Liquidity - tightening
Technicals - overbought driven by retail fomo, 0dte options & short covering
Inflation - probably not going anywhere after those nfp numbers

[Khurram Ghufran, CFA @kghufran]

As the markets transition to a world of slower growth and lower liquidity, asset managers responsibility shifts from maximizing returns to preserving capital and ensuring clients long-term goals continue to be met - which can now be done by taking lower risk.

[Khurram Ghufran, CFA @kghufran]

$TSLA has is now 25% of the market cap of all other OEM’s vs 100% in the bubble. Still not there yet but getting there.

[Khurram Ghufran, CFA @kghufran]

@Yg35835 @Tom___Web @lhamtil @NoonSixCap @mycroftcap @dalibali2 “It’s different this time” - Genghis Khan

[Khurram Ghufran, CFA @kghufran]

When tailwinds become headwinds…

[One Bubble to Rule Them All @shortl2021]

I have always found Japanese end-of-century population forecasts pretty amazing, but they are nothing compared with the new estimates coming out for China. The decline is just jaw-dropping.

https://t.co/Gzrq4SPo90

[Khurram Ghufran, CFA @kghufran]

This is the only chart that matters. Prices follow earnings.

[Markets & Mayhem @Mayhem4Markets]

Earnings estimates continue to be revised lower for Q3 and Q4. 👀

@ayeshatariq

[Khurram Ghufran, CFA @kghufran]

Not hard to see why consensus is this is a bear market rally ie Two leaders where earnings estimates falling but stocks keep rising $AAPL $NVDA

[Khurram Ghufran, CFA @kghufran]

Had to fly 16 hours to confirm if the bull was still standing!

[Khurram Ghufran, CFA @kghufran]

@buccocapital Price is a distraction as there is no valuation/cash flow support.

In this environment it is un-investable at ANY price.

When the Fed turns, may consider an entry.

[Khurram Ghufran, CFA @kghufran]

@RedDogT3 Still in denial, some hints of fear

[Khurram Ghufran, CFA @kghufran]

@davidgokhshtein Probably an indication of how far the bottom is

[Collab Fund @collabfund]

Confidence without arrogance.

Optimism without complacency.

Independence without isolation.

Skepticism without cynicism.

Respect without idolizing.

Loyalty without fealty.

Open-minded without gullibility.

Opportunistic without FOMO.

https://t.co/dKjFr1C8LS

[Khurram Ghufran, CFA @kghufran]

For some reason, I had placed a bid to buy #bitcoin at USD 3,800 a month ago.

Just took it off. Don’t think I would even buy it there. Can’t think of one reason to own a vehicle for speculation in this environment - regardless of price.

[Khurram Ghufran, CFA @kghufran]

@ValueAnalyst1 @JoshMoe7 Choose a multiple you like. Go as far out for estimates as you like. 🤷🏻‍♂️

[Khurram Ghufran, CFA @kghufran]

◦A day of reckoning has arrived for startups and VC funds. Growth at all costs has ceased to be a strategy.

We will at some point get over this. But at what level that will be and how long it will take is anybody’s guess. Be wary of anyone telling you definitively.

/end

[Khurram Ghufran, CFA @kghufran]

Random observations on ~Day 215 since the ‘FED Pivot’:

◦High-fiving, black slapping fintwit have turned on each other
◦Stocks splits have been embraced in a desperate bid to save valuations $AMZN $GOOG $SHOP $TSLA

1/n

[Khurram Ghufran, CFA @kghufran]

◦If you are looking for a xx% drop to buy, you are the exit liquidity. I would know, I invest in a market that trades 4x and it still falls
◦Crypto is still trying to prove it has utility other than a vehicle for speculation. If it disappears tomorrow, we won’t miss much

4/n