There's been some confusion out there about how @CookPolitical PVI works. A PVI score of R+10, for example, means that an R candidate should expect to get ~60% in a district if Trump won 50% of the vote nationally. Read our full explainer: https://t.co/qEWB5dxAjf
A common misconception! Cook PVI measures the partisanship of the district relative to the nation as a whole — not the margin between the two parties in the past presidential election. So a district that Trump won, on average, by about 20 points in the past two elections, is R+10
Hours after voting to defy President Donald Trump on his signature “One Big Beautiful Bill” legislation, NC GOP Sen. Thom Tillis announced he wasn’t running again in 2026.
#NCSEN moves to Toss Up
Read the analysis by @JessicaTaylor.
https://t.co/6MLTKuzc93
Learn more about our race ratings from the team of editors making these decisions. Watch our new CPR race ratings explainer.
And then check them out for yourself: https://t.co/ylJ1v6YHPW
@mattyglesias Recommend @CookPolitical tools. Recently realized a lot of folks weren't aware of the National Polling Average tool we launched in 2024. More to come in the weeks ahead. https://t.co/xeK3bgm6tJ
Trump's political interests align directly with the impact on his voters. The greatest risk of losing their support arises when his disruptive actions affect their day-to-day lives.
Read @amyewalter's latest: https://t.co/XETqIQDdY1
Molly is one of the smartest and most clear-eyed political reporters out there. I always learn something from her. We also talk about why writing/reading political profiles - not relying only on process/models - is critical to understanding politics.
Despite Trump’s win and Senate Republicans' four-seat gain, the race for the House was basically a wash.
Read @ercovey's analysis on how Republicans maintained narrow control + a look ahead to 2026: https://t.co/jdExcL0LWk
It’s easy to fall for all of the “what happened?” hot takes. Resist that urge & inform yourself with the best in the business: @amyewalter of @CookPolitical.
If you were surprised by the results of the election, don’t blame the polls.
Polling accurately captured the challenges facing the Harris campaign; namely falling support from younger voters, Latino voters and men.
https://t.co/bcSjBWmUBq
If you were surprised by the results of the election, don’t blame the polls.
Polling accurately captured the challenges facing the Harris campaign; namely falling support from younger voters, Latino voters and men.
https://t.co/bcSjBWmUBq
If you were surprised by the outcome of this election, it’s not because the polls led you astray.
Don't miss @amyewalter's latest column: https://t.co/cyLhfhHVvL
Republicans inched closer to control of the House over the weekend after crucial races out west were called in their favor.
Read @ercovey's latest on where the battle for the House stands:
https://t.co/P7Yf33ZuJl
Bacon once again outperforms the top of the ticket, beating Tony Vargas (D) by 2 points as Harris wins NE-02 by 4.
Dems were confident about their chances of flipping this seat, in part because polls showed Harris winning by a larger margin (Biden won by 6 points in 2020)
NEW @CookPolitical: our 2024 national popular vote tracker is live. With over 143 million votes counted, Trump out to a 50.9%-47.6% lead, though that will narrow considerably. https://t.co/TOY7uUrExj