@Tesla quarterly operating income by each general business line out to 2030.
Many WS analysts forecast revenue figures for EV sales only.
Tesla is setting the foundation for 4 behemoth businesses:
-EV sales 🚘
-Battery storage 🔋
-Robotaxi 🚕
-Optimus 🤖
$TSLA @elonmusk
@FLOWKINGOPTIONS Good morning Flow King trust you had a wonderful weekend and Happy Father's day. Appreciate heatmap of NBIS, NVDA and MSTR at your convenient. Thanks very much.
$NVDA SOLD $ARM & $APLD IN 2026, AND BETTING SO BIG ON THESE COMPANIES:
1. $GLW | $3.2B
2. $IREN | Secured a 5y right to invest $2.1B + Selected for $NVDA DSX AI Infrastructure
3. $CRWV | $2B
4. $NBIS | $2B
5. $MRVL | $2B + Jensen’s next trillion dollar company.
6. $LITE | $2B
7. $COHR | $2B
JPMorgan strategists estimated up to $165 billion in global equity selling before the end of June (i.e., the “next week” from the post’s June 19 timestamp) due to standard quarter-end portfolio rebalancing.
Breakdown of the estimated selling (after strong equity gains pushed many portfolios above target allocations):
• U.S. defined benefit pensions (~$9.6T AUM): ~$55 billion
• Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) (~$1.9T AUM): ~$60 billion
• Norway’s Norges Bank (sovereign wealth fund, ~$2.1T): ~$40 billion
• Swiss National Bank (SNB): ~$25 billion (could be lower depending on final equity weight targets)
Partial offset: Balanced mutual funds are expected to provide some net equity buying (~$15 billion), as their month-to-date equity returns were roughly flat while bonds were modestly positive. https://t.co/e1y4jLn7TQ
Context and Impact
This is mechanical rebalancing (restoring target stock/bond mixes, e.g., 60/40), not a bearish call or forced liquidation from fear. It happens every quarter-end but stands out this time due to the strong equity rally earlier in 2026.
Market size perspective:
• Global equities are worth well over $100 trillion.
• The S&P 500 alone has a market cap of roughly $60 trillion.
• $165 billion represents a very small fraction (~0.2–0.3% even if heavily U.S.-focused).
JPMorgan views this as anticipated and typically well-absorbed by ongoing buybacks, inflows, and other demand. It could add short-term pressure or volatility near month-end, but the bank remains constructive on equities for the rest of 2026. @i
Bottom Line
The post is factually correct — JPMorgan did issue this warning with those exact figures and reasoning. Whether it leads to a “broader market correction” is more speculative; history shows these flows are usually digested without major disruption, though they can contribute to choppiness.
JP Morgan warns of $165,000,000,000 in global stocks selling in the next week.
The reason is rebalancing the portfolio, but it could be big enough to create a broader market correction.
$NBIS Current status
• Stock : ~$286
• Market cap: ~$73 billion.
• Shares outstanding: ~220 million (implied ~254 million including certain classes).
• Explosive growth: Revenue up 684% YoY in Q1 2026 to $399 million (AI cloud core up 841%). ARR reached $1.92 billion. Adjusted EBITDA margin strong and improving (AI cloud ~45% in Q1; targeting ~40% overall for 2026). Positive operating cash flow and ~$9.3 billion cash on hand. https://t.co/yAwp3ArSoM
• Recent catalysts: Added to Nasdaq-100 (effective June 22, 2026), major NVIDIA partnership/investment, big customer wins.
Capacity Assumptions: 7.5 GW by 2030 — Ambitious but Plausible
Company + NVIDIA guidance (most relevant benchmark):
• March 2026 NVIDIA partnership announcement: Enables deployment of more than 5 GW of NVIDIA systems by end of 2030.
• Q1 2026 shareholder letter: Raised 2026 contracted power guidance to >4 GW by YE 2026 (from prior >3 GW). Operational/connected capacity targeted at 800 MW–1 GW by YE 2026.
• Owned capacity is already >75% of contracted; multiple large sites in development (e.g., 1.2 GW Pennsylvania AI factory phased from late 2027, plus sites in Finland, Missouri, etc.).
• Long-term trajectory has accelerated rapidly (guidance multiples have increased several times in recent quarters). https://t.co/zjqjyvzDJK
Assessment: 7.5 GW is ~50% above the stated >5 GW NVIDIA-enabled target. It is bullish but credible if Nebius continues its recent pace of power deal acceleration, secures additional grid connections, and executes on owned gigawatt-scale sites. Data center builds often face delays (power procurement, construction, equipment), so the base/bear cases in the forecast (which allow for slower ramps) are prudent. Industry-wide power constraints make any multi-GW ramp challenging but highly rewarded if successful.
Revenue and Unit Economics Support High Upside
• Current intensity: Roughly $4–5 million ARR per MW on active/connected power (implying strong early monetization).
• 2026 guidance: $7–9 billion ARR (on ramping but still-partial capacity) and $3.0–3.4 billion revenue.
• Forward models from analysts/investors commonly project rising intensity ($9M+/MW or $9–18B ARR per GW) due to:
• Higher utilization.
• Newer hardware (Blackwell → Rubin generations).
• Full-stack software/platform attach (inference, agentic AI, etc.).
• Premium pricing for scarce high-density AI capacity.
For 5 GW operational by 2030 at conservative-to-optimistic intensity, ARR could reach $50–90+ billion. Scaling to the forecast’s 7.5 GW pushes this higher (potentially $75–110B+ ARR in aggressive scenarios). Margins are on a strong trajectory toward 20–30%+ EBIT. https://t.co/p8QVM66TiZ
Valuation Math and Price Plausibility in 2030
By 2030 (≈4.5 years from now), assume:
• Significant but manageable dilution (they’ve already raised billions via equity, convertibles, customer prepayments, and have diversified funding options; heavy dilution is a key bear risk).
• High-teens to low-30s% margins once scaled.
• Valuation multiples that compress from today’s growth-stock levels but remain elevated for a scaled AI infrastructure leader (e.g., 15–30x EV/EBIT or sales multiples depending on growth/margin profile).
Rough scenarios aligning with the forecast:
• Bear ($600–900): Slower capacity (e.g., 3–5 GW), utilization/compression issues, heavier dilution → lower ARR and multiple. Still implies meaningful upside from today but reflects execution or macro risks.
• Base ($1,500–2,000): Hits or exceeds ~5–7.5 GW with solid utilization and monetization. Market cap in the hundreds of billions to low trillions range is plausible for a leading AI cloud/infra player amid sustained demand (compare to current hyperscaler or semiconductor valuations scaled appropriately).
• Bull/Everything-right ($2,500–4,000+): Dominant position, high margins, scarcity premium, platform moat. Market cap $1T+ territory becomes realistic.