KirkLabs Wx - Spring Hill

American Meteorological Society - National Weather Association - SkyWarn Advanced Storm Spotter - Serving the Columbia/Spring Hill area - NOT a meteorologist.

[KirkLabs Wx - Spring Hill @kirklabs]

One thing we need to watch out for in tonight's storms… There may be significant tree damage to trees that were already weakened by the ice storm. I have already seen where a fallen tree in Maury County this afternoon has caused power outages for 40 residents.

[KirkLabs Wx - Spring Hill @kirklabs]

Graupel in Columbia.

[Tennessee Freedom @TNFreedom21]

@NashSevereWx Ice dams over the sewer drains. If it’s safe, everyone should clear if you can!

[Spring Hill Police @SHPDTN]

Several trees blocking the roadway on city streets. Please avoid traveling if you can.

[KirkLabs Wx - Spring Hill @kirklabs]

This is when you know the situation is catastrophic.

[Charlie @LionsHeartMedia]

Word is our local @WaffleHouse closed at 5pm. #WinterStorm #BraceYourselves

@ryanhallyall @MboroSevereWx @RuthSevereWx @NashSevereWx

[BobbyBoyd1946 ⛪️ @bobby_boyd1946]

12z mornings H-triple-R has 1 inch total ice accretion for Nashville.🙏 #TNwx #KYwx #ALwx #MSwx

[KirkLabs Wx - Spring Hill @kirklabs]

Starting to look like freezing rain in Spring Hill…
#tSpotter

[KirkLabs Wx - Spring Hill @kirklabs]

@BamaGirlwx @THPNashville AMEN!! 🙏 🙏🙏

[KirkLabs Wx - Spring Hill @kirklabs]

@nikkimorosca @NashSevereWx I think exploding trees is a real thing, but this looks more like trees just breaking from the ice weight. This is typical of an ice storm in a wooded area. We might hear this kind of thing tonight.

[KirkLabs Wx - Spring Hill @kirklabs]

All sleet now in Columbia and Spring Hill.

[KirkLabs Wx - Spring Hill @kirklabs]

@NashSevereWx Would sleet/freezing rain compact down what has already accumulated? The pre-mix snow seems to have a higher ratio than what we usually get.

[KirkLabs Wx - Spring Hill @kirklabs]

Already looking sleet-y in the southern areas.

[KirkLabs Wx - Spring Hill @kirklabs]

@CoryM2424 This morning they are still saying about a half inch of ice, which is a lot.

[KirkLabs Wx - Spring Hill @kirklabs]

TRUTH! I am sure (hoping anyway) they don't mean it literally, but I keep hearing "they're moving the storm north".

[BGWX @BradyBGWX]

THE STORM IS NOT MOVING NORTH OR SOUTH!

Model guidance is.

Problem is we have an epidemic of relying on them now in weather community as if they’re supposed to be our forecast and relying on them when in reality as forecasters we are the ones that are supposed to see through that and make our own forecasts.

Giving weather models that much power in unnecessary and takes away from the years of hard work you did to understand the atmosphere imo.

They are a fantastic tool and should be used often for forecasting.

But they don’t and shouldn’t define how you see a storm happening.

A 10 year old can tell you what changed in a weather model run the same way he can tell you what happened in the football game.

That’s not meteorology or true forecasting.

Begging for a change back to where there wasn’t this reliance on model guidance to show with often times confidence in the tine of voice this is what the forecast is.

How often I see it for snow maps now Is discouraging as well.

It’s why imo we still have so many great forecasters over 50-60 years old because they didn’t have model guidance to rely on for forecasting the same way we do know.

Weather models are amazing but they are simply a tool. And the messaging should shift away from *if models do this, then this will happen*…

When in reality models are designed to play from behind with forecasts in their nature because it’s impossible for them to perfectly predict the result.

Every model run is going to be wrong believe it or not. It’s just how wrong, not if.

The storm never shifted and isn’t going to shift again. Model guidance will though.

IMO it takes from true forecasting and it’s a little lazy and unfair to yourself as a forecaster who took all of that time to understand the global weather patterns, atmospheric dynamics, physics, the math, all of that.

I took Met classes but never got the degree. I had to self teach myself with who I could find as the best influences. I don’t hide it or try to as you all know.

Applying what we learn though is critical and using it to make the next forecast better so we can try to improve upon our mistakes.

Thank you for listening and just know the tone is to hammer home a point. Not any actual hate towards anybody.

✌️

[KirkLabs Wx - Spring Hill @kirklabs]

@BrandonNbminc No legit meteorologist ever said 18-24". You must have seen apps days ago before the system ever materialized. They relied on models which meteorologists know are notoriously bad at predicting snow totals until a day or two out.

[DK🇺🇸🦅🇺🇸 @1Nicdar]

Florida won the coin toss, and has elected not to receive.

🤷🏻‍♂️ 😬 😎 🤣 🤣 🤣

[BGWX @BradyBGWX]

THE STORM IS NOT MOVING NORTH OR SOUTH!

Model guidance is.

Problem is we have an epidemic of relying on them now in weather community as if they’re supposed to be our forecast and relying on them when in reality as forecasters we are the ones that are supposed to see through that and make our own forecasts.

Giving weather models that much power in unnecessary and takes away from the years of hard work you did to understand the atmosphere imo.

They are a fantastic tool and should be used often for forecasting.

But they don’t and shouldn’t define how you see a storm happening.

A 10 year old can tell you what changed in a weather model run the same way he can tell you what happened in the football game.

That’s not meteorology or true forecasting.

Begging for a change back to where there wasn’t this reliance on model guidance to show with often times confidence in the tine of voice this is what the forecast is.

How often I see it for snow maps now Is discouraging as well.

It’s why imo we still have so many great forecasters over 50-60 years old because they didn’t have model guidance to rely on for forecasting the same way we do know.

Weather models are amazing but they are simply a tool. And the messaging should shift away from *if models do this, then this will happen*…

When in reality models are designed to play from behind with forecasts in their nature because it’s impossible for them to perfectly predict the result.

Every model run is going to be wrong believe it or not. It’s just how wrong, not if.

The storm never shifted and isn’t going to shift again. Model guidance will though.

IMO it takes from true forecasting and it’s a little lazy and unfair to yourself as a forecaster who took all of that time to understand the global weather patterns, atmospheric dynamics, physics, the math, all of that.

I took Met classes but never got the degree. I had to self teach myself with who I could find as the best influences. I don’t hide it or try to as you all know.

Applying what we learn though is critical and using it to make the next forecast better so we can try to improve upon our mistakes.

Thank you for listening and just know the tone is to hammer home a point. Not any actual hate towards anybody.

✌️

[Jeff Huffman @HuffmanHeadsUp]

A 20-point sermon. Amen!

[KirkLabs Wx - Spring Hill @kirklabs]

@BamaGirlwx Wow, what country is this? Maybe I'll start a kill-switch bypass circuit business.

[KirkLabs Wx - Spring Hill @kirklabs]

@BamaGirlwx LOL I'm just filling a bathtub and then dipping it out into a Brita filter as needed.