Kirill Shamiev

Civ-mil relations, monitoring & evaluation, and RU affairs. Now in @kennaninstitute, @ResearchUI. Ex @ecfr, Verian Group. In personal capacity only.

[Kirill Shamiev @kirlant]

My book on Russian civil-military relations under Putin has been sent to the press. It will be published in Europe next month. American and Canadian customers will be able to buy it from Oxford University Press in July. New endorsements: 1/6 https://t.co/aZ38IDDKIV

[Kirill Shamiev @kirlant]

"Manners are not like bonbons, Nina. You may not choose the ones that suit you best; and you certainly cannot put the half-bitten ones back in the box."

[Joe Mulhall @JoeMulhall_]

Can't be absolutely certain but it very much looks like Tommy Robinson is in the Shalyapin Bar of the Hotel Metropol in Moscow with Errol Musk.

[Pavel Bacherikov @pbacherikov]

@ThatchEffendi >Armenia's economic growth is impressive
Ah yes, about that: https://t.co/Us6w5iEanl

[CEU Democracy Institute @CEUDemInst]

🗞️ Journalists from @nytimes visited Hungary to draw lessons from the Hungarian elections, and they spoke with our researchers, Balint Magyar and Balint Madlovics.

Details:
👉 https://t.co/Aj0KteXkjn

📷 Máté Bartha, The New York Times

[Country Regio @countryregio]

La selección de España llegando a México.

[Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy]

I'm old enough to remember when cyber was the next big thing, the cyber-nuclear nexus was the hottest issue in town, and cyber capabilities were the deus ex machina of every wargame...

[Konrad Muzyka - Rochan Consulting @konrad_muzyka]

There have been no changes in Belarus messaging. They have been "warning" about the NATO build-up and the possibility of war for years (even before 2022).

[OC Media @OCMediaorg]

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has spent 15 minutes highlighting the changes Armenians returning from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries would notice upon arriving in Armenia, pointing to developments implemented under his government.

[Kirill Shamiev @kirlant]

Good letter

[Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський @ZelenskyyUa]

Open Letter
To the President of the Russian Federation
From the President of Ukraine

When you came to power in Russia more than 26 years ago, many people in Ukraine viewed you positively. That is how it was. But that is now in the past.
Now, the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians view it positively that our long-range drones paid a visit to the opening of your forum in St. Petersburg, covering a distance of more than 1,000 kilometers. As you know very well, that distance is not the limit of our capabilities.

[Kirill Shamiev @kirlant]

@postsocialismus Ты просто завидуешь, his h-index after these Q1 publications:

[Kirill Shamiev @kirlant]

Navalny's legacy is enormous. He and his team politicised thousands, if not millions, of Russians, many of whom are still involved in various opposition movements and organisations or simply hold staunch anti-government views. RU politics in 2011-21 were largely shaped by him.

[The Anti-Corruption Foundation @ACF_int]

Today, Alexei Navalny would have turned 50.

Alexei was a person of extraordinary courage, strength, and faith in people. He changed Russian politics forever, showing that those in power can be challenged, corruption can be investigated, fear can be overcome, and that a free Russia is worth fighting for even under the harshest conditions.

Memorial events in Alexei’s honor will take place in cities around the world today. Check the list of events to find your city and join us: https://t.co/tVO4D9RkoN

[Kirill Shamiev @kirlant]

@MrKevinRothrock In retrospect, Navalny advocated for a migration policy that has become mainstream in Europe and the US in recent years. So in some sense, his stance on migration policy was visionary in terms of what was to come:

[Kirill Shamiev @kirlant]

@Vniversalexport Could you share the link? I would love to know more

[Kirill Shamiev @kirlant]

Bezrukov is more than just IO. His other name was Donald Heathfield, an illegal, Kennedy School alum, 20+ years in the US, FR and CA. He and his wife, Elena Vavilova (Tracey Foley), were exposed in 2010. His analysis got bleaker. In 2022, he predicted "a decade" of confrontation.

[Samuel Bendett @sambendett]

Russian political scientist and former intel officer Andrey Bezrukov stated at the SPIEF that Russia "...will live under wartime conditions for several more decades. The world is already in a phase of global conflict, and the next 20 years will be a time of constant confrontation for Russia. An era of wars in Asia—as well as biowars and drone wars—is coming." To the right of Bezrukov in this video is Aleksandr Dugin, Russian ultra-nationalist and neo-Eurasianist. https://t.co/GX6c8sJNFv

[Pavel Bacherikov @pbacherikov]

"It will collapse and crumble. The putinist state is not sustainable. One day, we will look at its place, and it won't be there. Victory is inevitable. But for now, we must not give up and stand by our beliefs."

[Michael Kimmage @mkimmage]

Such a pleasure to host @DAlperovitch for a detailed conversation about Russian decision-making in the lead-up to its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Much food for thought for historians and for students; part of our @kennaninstitute series on the war's origins.
https://t.co/lARmvksXvk

[Kirill Shamiev @kirlant]

FR's 300ish nuclear weapons cannot meaningfully deter Russia's 5420 warheads with more than 1700 deployed. It would strengthen though RU's demand to include FR and UK in all future arms control negotiations.

[Etienne Marcuz @Etienne_Marcuz]

A few days after Norway joined French Forward Deterrence Initiative and Finland expressed its interest for it, French chief of staff was received by Finnish president and defense minister.

Having Finland joining the initiative would open the "door" to nuclear raids along the 1300 km long border with Russia, exposing an important number of strategic assets and forcing Moscow to disperse high-end missile defense systems.

I analyzed this specific issue in a @FRS_org note that should come out soon.

Stay tuned.

[Kirill Shamiev @kirlant]

Great success and good news. MAX -- out of App Store

[Alexander Pomazuev @APomazuev]

At the outset of our campaign in defence of the Russian internet (https://t.co/CagiGBYna1), we addressed Apple with the specific appeal to do precisely this:

“We ask Apple Inc. to remove the MAX messenger application and the VK Video and Rutube video-hosting platforms from the App Store, as they are designed for purposes incompatible with your company’s policies on protecting user privacy and human rights.”

It remains difficult to believe that the removal of MAX from the App Store today constitutes the final decision. Nevertheless, the recent actions of the major technology companies provide grounds for hope that they have begun to apply a policy of zero tolerance to this instrument of censorship.

Access for Russian users to the free dissemination of information is not merely a matter of protecting their rights. The internet remains the principal channel through which information and discontent circulate within Russian society, compelling the authorities to devote additional resources to its management. The free dissemination of information constitutes another front on which the Putin regime is obliged to spread its efforts. Allowing Putin to prevail here would ultimately impose a significantly higher cost on the battlefield or on the economic front.

[Kirill Shamiev @kirlant]

@jonnytickle Come on, even before Leningradksy Vokzal was not a total dump if you compare it with other major Hbf in Europe. Outdated, not so comfortable -- yes, but at least clean, safe, and functional.

[Grigor Atanesian @atanessi]

This is false. Armenia's domestic politics is not organised around issues - it is organised around personalities. But Russia is not seen as a major issue either, much less salient than Azerbaijan and Turkey, economy, jobs, cost of living, corruption etc

[Kevin Rothrock @MrKevinRothrock]

Now *this* is how you fix an election. In addition to a little actual gerrymandering, the Kremlin is reportedly pressuring the Communist Party to bench some of its most popular candidates this Sept, lest United Russia lose its precious grip on single-member districts. ↓