Apple fired Steve Jobs.
He walked into MIT and gave the most honest 60-minute business lecture ever recorded.
No PR filter. No image to protect. Just raw thinking from the guy who built Apple once — and was about to do it again.
Watch this instead of Netflix tonight.
Bookmark it for later
Elon Musk: “This is going to sound pretty crazy. I’d say the economy is ten times its current size in ten years
Greater than 10x in roughly ten years is actually a fairly comfortable prediction
Obviously, if there’s World War III or something, that could put a kink in those plans. But in the absence of World War III, if current trends continue, the economy 10xs in ten years”
10 years ago Sam Altman asked Elon what he’d be working on if he were 22 today.
he answered: “AI is probably the single biggest item in the near term that’s likely to affect humanity.”
that was 2016. chatgpt was still six years away. crazy shit!
The market's character is still one of a bear market or cyclical correction; strong open, fade into close and major average living below the 200-day line. Before a reliable bottom can be established, we need to see better price and volume action, including better action from breakout names forming bases.
We are clearly NOT out of the woods yet. The market backdrop is one where sentiment has improved with rising pessimism, but not a full capitulation. The VIX has reached bear warning levels, but remains below true washout extremes. A volatility washout is not required for a bottom, but would add conviction.
Bullish Scenario
--The war ends
--Oil prices recede
--Stagflation concerns ease
--Central banks continuing their easing trajectory
Under this scenario, we would expect:
-A broadening market advance
-Emergence of new leadership from sound bases
-A Follow-Through Day (FTD) on the NYSE and/or NASDAQ confirming institutional buying with little in the way of immediate distribution
-Significant drop in volatility
Bearish Scenario
--The war persists or escalates
--The Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted
--Oil prices make new highs
--Stagflation becomes evident in hard economic data
This would likely result in:
-Limited general market rally attempts with most breakout stocks failing
-Lack of follow-through from breakout names
-Further deterioration in breadth and leadership
-Dearth of setups in buyable position
-Continued elevated volatility and distribution
In that case, sentiment would likely need to reach higher levels of pessimism before a durable market bottom could form. In its absence, and end to the factors that are pressuring the market could cause the market to bottom in less dramatic fashion.
Jensen Huang just reverse-engineered why Elon Musk operates at a speed no one on the planet can match.
Three traits.
The first is deletion.
Huang: “He has the ability to question everything to the point where everything’s down to its minimal amount.”
Most engineers solve problems by adding.
Musk solves them by subtracting.
Every part. Every process. Every assumption that survived because no one had the nerve to kill it.
He picks it up. Asks if it’s load-bearing. If the answer is anything less than absolutely, it is gone.
Not simplified. Not optimized. Removed.
What survives is the skeleton. The bare physics of the problem. Nothing between intent and execution.
Huang said it plainly.
As minimalist as you could possibly imagine.
And he does it at system scale.
Not at a product level. Not at a department level.
Across entire companies. Entire industries. Entire supply chains.
He strips a rocket the same way he strips a meeting. Down to the load-bearing walls and nothing else.
The second is presence.
Huang: “He is present at the point of action. If there’s a problem, he’ll just go there and show me the problem.”
Not a Slack message. Not a report filtered through four layers of people who weren’t there when it broke.
He walks to the failure. Stands over it. Puts his hands on it.
Most executives have never seen the actual problem their company is trying to solve.
They have seen slides about it.
Read summaries of it.
Formed opinions about it in rooms that are nowhere near it.
Musk stands over the broken hardware and does not leave until it works.
That collapses the distance that buries most organizations.
The gap between something breaking and the person with authority to fix it actually understanding what broke.
In most companies, that gap is weeks.
For Musk, it is hours.
The third is the one that bends everyone around him.
Huang: “When you act personally with so much urgency, it causes everybody else to act with urgency.”
Every supplier has a hundred customers. Every vendor has a dozen priorities. Every manufacturer has a backlog stretching months into the future.
Musk makes himself the top of every single one of those lists.
Not by demanding it. By demonstrating it.
When the CEO shows up at your facility at midnight. When he is moving faster than your own internal team. When his timeline makes yours look like a suggestion.
You do not put him in the queue. You rearrange the queue around him.
Huang watched this up close.
Huang: “He does that by demonstrating.”
Not by asking. Not by negotiating. Not by leveraging a contract clause.
By moving so fast that everyone else’s normal pace feels like standing still.
Three traits. Strip everything down. Show up at the failure. Move so fast the world rearranges around you.
That is not a management philosophy.
That is why one man runs six companies while entire boards cannot keep one moving.
I haven’t had a serious drawdown since the 1980s—just a few single-digit down years in over three decades. How? A deep respect for risk and unconditional patience.
A few key rules:
1. Always cut losses short - no big losses. no exceptions!
2. Only trade large on the heels of smaller trades working
3. Always trade progressively smaller when
trades aren't working
4. Never average down
5. Never let a good-size gain turn into a loss
6. No forced trades - no style drift
The market has been discounting higher oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty. Sentiment is finally turning more bearish, which from a contrary standpoint is a step in the right direction. However, in the short term, volatility is likely to remain elevated as bullish sentiment unwinds and bearish sentiment approaches an extreme.
As noted, this is likely a cyclical correction within a broader secular bull market. Patience and vigilance will be key to identifying the next leaders in the coming advance.
Oil will ultimately present a compelling opportunity on the short side, and equities will eventually find a bottom. That said, I don’t play guessing games or try to catch falling knives. One of the most difficult lessons for traders to internalize is that the right price is not necessarily the lowest price.
In the near term, remain defensive. Keep exposure tight and highly selective. Focus only on the highest-quality setups and demand confirmation with meaningful follow-through before committing additional capital or increasing exposure to aggressive levels. The market is offering very little margin for error—discipline and patience are essential.
https://t.co/JXzFFTnkiV
Justine Musk, Elon Musk’s ex-wife, sharing valuable insights into what accelerated Elon’s massive success
She pointed to two traits that set him apart: relentless hard work and the strategic use of the word “no.”
Saying “no” is a way of protecting your time, energy, and focus so you can direct them toward your own goals. Behind every “no” is a deeper “yes” to what truly matters
Source: @TEDx, @justinemusk
"🚨일론 머스크가 방금, 지구상의 모든 하이브리드 회사에 가장 명확한 사형 선고를 내렸다.
머스크: “스프레드시트가 있는 노트북 한 대가 수백 명의 인간 계산원이 있는 고층 빌딩을 압도할 수 있다. 이제 만약 그 스프레드시트에서 단 몇 개의 셀이라도 사람이 직접 계산한다면, 완전히 컴퓨터로만 이루어진 스프레드시트와는 경쟁 자체가 불가능할 것이다.”
디지털 워크플로우 안에서 단 하나의 생물학적 운영자(인간)가 슈퍼컴퓨터의 속도를 인간이 타이핑하는 속도까지 떨어뜨려 버린다.
하이브리드 회사는 인간이 계산을 끝마치기만을 기다리는 디지털 스프레드시트일 뿐이다.
완전히 알고리즘으로 구성된 존재는 총 계산 속도로 움직이며 생물학적 마찰이 전혀 없기 때문에 하이브리드 모델을 완전히 파괴한다.
머스크: “이것이 의미하는 것은 완전히 AI로만 이루어진 회사들이 그렇지 않은 회사들을 철저히 무너뜨릴 것이라는 점이다.”
현재 비즈니스 사이클의 가장 큰 착각은 전통 기업들이 천천히 그리고 안전하게 AI 시대로 전환할 수 있다는 믿음이다. 그런 전환은 없다. 오직 대체(replacement)만 존재할 뿐이다.
너의 경쟁자는 밀리초 단위로 결정을 내리고 실행하는 완전 자율 네트워크다. 너의 회사는 아직도 이메일 하나 승인하는 데 인간의 손을 필요로 한다. 너의 생존 확률은 정확히 0이다.
오늘날 기업들은 거대한 인원수를 자랑스럽게 생각한다. 하지만 내일의 승자들은 그 대규모 인력을 오히려 두려워할 것이다.
미래의 포춘 500은 10만 명의 직원을 가진 회사가 아닐 것이다. 소수의 운영자와 거대한 자율 AI 에이전트 군단이 이끄는 수조 달러 규모의 엔티티가 될 것이다.
노트북은 이미 승리했다. 고층 빌딩은 아직 자신이 텅 비어 있다는 사실을 모르고 있을 뿐이다.