I used to wave away quantum computing (QC) risks to Bitcoin as far-fetched. I don’t anymore.
The usual pushback goes like this: QC isn’t a threat for years, and if it is, then the whole financial system is in trouble anyway. That line of nihilistic thinking may be comforting to some, but it misses the point.
Big banks aren’t sitting idle. They’re already investing in quantum research, building internal teams, partnering with QC developers, and thinking about how to harden their systems over time. They’re not “quantum-safe” today — but they’re not starting from scratch either.
Bitcoin is different. It can upgrade, technically. But doing so requires slow, messy coordination across a decentralised network. There’s no risk committee, no mandate, no one who can just say “we’re switching now.”
So this isn’t about panic or pretending I know the precise timelines. Maybe QC is five years away. Maybe it’s fifteen. The problem is that quantum risk is low-probability but massive-impact — and those are exactly the risks decentralised systems struggle to deal with early.
Add AI into the mix, and it’s at least plausible that timelines compress rather than extend.
What’s interesting is the growing gap between developer confidence and institutional behaviour. Even if developers think there’s a zero percent chance of a quantum threat in the next five years, some institutions are clearly pricing it higher.
The recent decision by CLSA strategist Chris Wood to remove BTC from his widely followed portfolio due to QC risk may look like “paper hands,” but it matters. It signals that quantum risk is entering institutional risk frameworks — even if views differ widely.
And those views do differ. There’s plenty of counter-evidence. Harvard’s reported decision to increase its exposure by roughly 280% shows institutional support for Bitcoin isn’t disappearing. What’s changing isn’t demand, but dispersion — my guess is that institutional alignment on how to price tail risks diverges further as the QC threat rises.
It’s also plausible that Harvard’s decision had nothing to do with quantum risk at all. Falling volatility alone, consistent with their asset-allocation framework, would justify a higher weighting.
There’s nuance and a lot of in-depth technical understanding, which I’m still working through. But asking these questions is reasonable. @caprioleio has been pushing on this for a while, and he’s right to challenge the shrug-it-off attitude.
What is unreasonable is pretending that JPMorgan and Bitcoin face the same problem. One can prepare in advance and mandate change. The other has to convince everyone, in advance, that a future threat is worth acting on.
Which brings me to the incentive problem.
As Bitcoin’s price rises, confidence rises — and the willingness to push through disruptive, precautionary upgrades falls. The system feels safest exactly when it is least incentivised to prepare.
Quantum risk doesn’t move with price, but the gap does.
Stock traders this week be like 🥵🤩
MSFT / META / TSLA / AAPL are on deck 👀
What’s your #1 earnings watch this week? Reply below
🎁 100 $USDT Trading Bonus (10 Winners)
⏳ 72H
Catch the moves with Phemex Stock Futures 👇
https://t.co/DKGjXyVAZr
#StockFutures#TradFi
The S&P 500 underpins $40T+ in global equity value and hundreds of trillions in derivatives, ETFs, and structured products.
Synth is bringing forward-looking probability indices to the world’s most important market.
This is a new predictive layer for equities
Scammers use fake Luno apps and ads to steal personal information. A single click on a malicious link can compromise your device and put your funds at risk. Only download the Luno app from the App Store or Google Play, and trust verified Luno accounts only.
🫵 Join the https://t.co/KFY5DDVuGw 😎
#Meta is discontinuing its #metaverseforwork, #HorizonWorkrooms, as a standalone app and will stop selling headsets and software for businesses. This decision follows recent layoffs in Meta’s Reality Labs division and the closure of seve…
Hi der.
If you're sad this morning, just remember litecoin has processed trillions of dollars over it's chain with zero downtime over 14 years.
Ur welcome.
My brother @EhsanJAhmad has just released his first comedy special!
https://t.co/nRxE9xBHUz
I’ve had the privilege of working with him at @MothershipATX while’s he’s been putting this together and it’s really great
Et ben je ne m’attendais pas à ce que ce soit aussi brutal, le top sur les 98k$ !
Le dead cat bounce est pour l’instant parfaitement respecté, je veux quand même apporter de nouvelles précisions : ce qui va vraiment valider le dead cat bounce, c’est le passage sous les anciens plus bas.
Donc sous la clôture daily des 84,6k$, si on passe en dessous, on risque d’accélérer fort à la baisse, exactement comme en 2022.
On avait formé le rebond pendant +100 jours, puis on était doucement revenu vers les anciens plus bas, et quand on a cassé, on a entamé notre grosse jambe baissière.
J’ai encore mon short ouvert avec un TP de base à 70 000$, mais je me tâte à sortir entre les 89–84k$, voir comment on réagit sur les plus bas et ajuster suivant si on casse ou pas. Flemme d’avoir un rebond en bas du range et de me faire SL à BE à 96k$.
Who would have guessed shutting down electricity generation is a bad idea
Who are these people running these countries?
Zero accountability, maximum destruction
And if they don’t like your tweets that accurately criticize them, they will just silence you, mock you as some extreme right wing figure
Develish
january @_grblockchain meetup
it was a surprise joint meeting with the local bitcoin group!
topics included:
• how to use stablecoins
• privacy chains (what are they?)
• the advantages of smart contracts
appreciate @standwithcrypto for supporting the convo once again