KM

[John P. Hussman, Ph.D. @hussmanjp]

New comment is up! 😀🐳
If I’ve done my job, I’m hoping you’ll come away with a clear appreciation of the big picture.
https://t.co/GhxTPR0hRB

[KM @kmccabe0214]

Happy Valentine's Day to @AmyFreeze7 and the news team @ABC7NY on #bigdogsunday from three-legged Bernese Mountain dog rescue, Autumn #bernesemountaindog 🐶

[KM @kmccabe0214]

#bigdogsunday

[KM @kmccabe0214]

Autumn is a recently rescued 3-legged Bernese Mountain Dog who is cold weather ready in her leopard print coat @AmyFreeze7 @BarbM201 #bernesemountaindog #Weather 🐶

[Barbara D @BarbM201]

Get the #bernesemountaindog lover in your family the perfect #holiday #gift through @BarkYours https://t.co/RBf40xvykJ #Berner #dog #shop

[KM @kmccabe0214]

@RaoulGMI @DavidBCollum @DiMartinoBooth @Nordea @SoberLook Then the negative #equity #return shock will hit those holding #passive & #index #investments all the while believing they were assuming #equity #risk more prudently and safely. Poor sheep, who will they blame then?

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

@kmccabe0214 @DavidBCollum @DiMartinoBooth @Nordea @SoberLook totally agree. In a pension plan -1% rates seems like a cheap 10 year put option (they'd normally be priced at 45%). I'd take that all day.

[KM @kmccabe0214]

@RaoulGMI @DavidBCollum @DiMartinoBooth @Nordea @SoberLook The last part of your tweet is key. Everyone assumes positive #equity #returns over the next 7-10 years. Not a safe assumption. Never mind that many seem to gloss over the additional required return to assume equity risk vs. #bonds.

[KM @kmccabe0214]

@petenajarian Amen, Pete. Prayers to you best friend. “Yesterday is gone. Tomorrow has not yet come. We have only today. Let us begin.”
― Mother Theresa

[KM @kmccabe0214]

@petenajarian @ArmyWP_Football Well said, Pete. Having watched @NavyFB play tough against (and even beat) my Irish @NDFootball, I admire the way the service academies play against very talented programs. It truly shows the character of the student-athletes who serve our nation. 🇺🇸

[KM @kmccabe0214]

@Lavorgnanomics @federalreserve Too much focus uncertainties. Focus should be on high US corp debt, rising levels of US$ denominated debt outside USA, & high EM refinancing demand over next few years. Trade uncertainties add stress to corps & global value chains, but underlying precarious condition is debt.

[KM @kmccabe0214]

@RaoulGMI @TeddyVallee Lastly, like other goods, decline in prices without a demand response results in a reduction in supply of good. CBs will not allow this function of the price mechanism to work. CBs action hurts banks' profits & banks' ability to build capital - source of future lending.

[KM @kmccabe0214]

@RaoulGMI @TeddyVallee Also, as Lacy Hunt has written, I feel that the levels of indebtedness have risen to such high levels that the returns on capital are falling - low to negative rates. Diminishing returns mean that future econ growth will be slow.

[KM @kmccabe0214]

@RaoulGMI @TeddyVallee Agree w/both. As CBs ease, I will watch BIS global liquidity data to measure CBs effects. I wonder if there is much demand for new credit given such high levels of debt; low to negative rates reflect this. In essence CBs lower price of credit to entice more consumption of debt.

[KM @kmccabe0214]

@ScottWapnerCNBC Sharpie back in the drawer as NOAA provides clarifying statement. https://t.co/1aGbWa1v5w

[KM @kmccabe0214]

Biggest problem is not low #inflation. Biggest problem is declining #returns on #capital as #debt levels grow.

[Per Bylund @PerBylund]

Shopkeepers in #NewYork, if you see this guy in your store--immediately raise your prices (a lot). He'll thank you for saving the economy. (Then lower those prices again.) https://t.co/5XsJYtItMD

[KM @kmccabe0214]

@JeffreyKleintop Interesting that those charts are from a BIS report published in May 2018, and the world central banks continue to target an inflation rate that they are unable to sustain for any period of time - a bigger structural force in the economy than the impact of monetary policy.

[KM @kmccabe0214]

"Declines in measures of firm creation and destruction, a proxy for the process of resource allocation, is a worrying sign in this respect. So too is the growth of so-called “zombie firms”, firms whose profits cannot cover interest payments on debt." (2/2)

[Bank for International Settlements @BIS_org]

Unconventional #MonetaryPolicy tools are valuable additions to central banks’ toolboxes and are most effective as part of a broader framework with appropriate supervisory, prudential and fiscal policies: Carstens https://t.co/h7U4F6ZgVX

[KM @kmccabe0214]

"Efficient resource allocation – moving capital and labour from low-productivity firms and sectors to more productive ones – underpins the process of “creative destruction” that is vital for long-run growth." (1/2)

[Bank for International Settlements @BIS_org]

Unconventional #MonetaryPolicy tools are valuable additions to central banks’ toolboxes and are most effective as part of a broader framework with appropriate supervisory, prudential and fiscal policies: Carstens https://t.co/h7U4F6ZgVX

[KM @kmccabe0214]

Negative interest rate policies: "And that has also meant that, over time, such low rates can depress banks’ net interest margins and their ability to build up capital – the foundation for sustainable lending. Low bank valuations reflect this profitability challenge." #NIRP #ZIRP

[Bank for International Settlements @BIS_org]

Unconventional #MonetaryPolicy tools are valuable additions to central banks’ toolboxes and are most effective as part of a broader framework with appropriate supervisory, prudential and fiscal policies: Carstens https://t.co/h7U4F6ZgVX