So, finally happening! Now a decent no. of people I follow and want to follow over on Blue Sky that it will be my main social media from now on. I'll still be here but less. Can't leave until more government and NHS accounts move over. @knightnet.bsky.social if you care. π
The Trump family has made $4 billion off the presidency.
Crypto: $3.02B
Persian Gulf deals: $425.8M
Qatari jet: $150M
Legal fees/merch: $127.7M
Mar-a-Lago: $125M
Corporate deals: $91M
Hanoi hotel: $40M
Truth Social: $25M
Don Jr: $19.6M
Unprecedented kleptocracy.
I have three monitors on my desk. The left one shows the order book. The middle one shows Truth Social. The right one shows the investigation queue.
On April 21st, the left screen moved first.
I am a Senior Surveillance Analyst at a commodities exchange. I have held this position for nineteen years. My job is to monitor trading activity for suspicious patterns and generate compliance reports. I am employee of the quarter. I have a mug.
At 19:54 GMT on April 21st, someone placed 4,260 sell orders on Brent crude futures. They did this during post-settlement. The window after the market closes when daily volume is typically in the dozens. Sometimes single digits. Sometimes I watch the screen and nothing happens for forty minutes and I think about whether my daughter is happy.
On April 21st, someone placed $430 million in directional bets in 120 seconds during that window. One hundred and twenty seconds. I timed it on my watch because the system clock rounds to the nearest minute and I have found, in nineteen years, that precision matters to no one but me.
At 20:10 GMT, the President posted on Truth Social that he was extending the Iran ceasefire.
Brent dropped from $100.91 to $96.83.
I flagged the trade. I flag a lot of trades. I want to tell you what happens to my flags.
My flags go into a system called TRACE. Trade Review and Compliance Evaluation. I did not name it. The system generates a report. The report goes to a committee. The committee has a name I am not allowed to share but I can tell you it meets quarterly and the conference room has a credenza with bottled water that is sparkling because someone once put still water in the room and a managing director sent an email about it that was longer than most of my surveillance reports.
The committee reviews my flags. The committee has reviewed all of my flags. Here is the complete record of actions taken on my flags in 2026:
Reviewed.
That's it. "Reviewed" is a status. In compliance, a status is the absence of an action that has been given a name so it looks like one.
Let me show you my flags.
March 9th. Someone bet millions on oil falling at 18:29 GMT. Forty-seven minutes later, a CBS reporter posted that the President said the Iran war was "very complete, pretty much." Oil dropped 25%. Forty-seven minutes. I flagged it.
March 23rd. Someone sold 5,100 lots of Brent and WTI crude futures between 10:49 and 10:50 GMT. Fourteen minutes later, the President posted on Truth Social about a "COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION" to hostilities. Oil dropped 11%. Over 13,000 contracts traded in sixty seconds after the post. Fourteen minutes. I flagged it.
April 7th. Someone established a $950 million short position in oil futures at 19:45 GMT. Three hours later, the President declared a two-week ceasefire. Nine hundred and fifty million dollars. I flagged it.
April 17th. Someone placed $760 million in bearish bets twenty minutes before Iran's foreign minister confirmed the Strait of Hormuz would reopen. Seven hundred and sixty million. I flagged it.
April 21st. The $430 million. Fifteen minutes. I flagged it.
That is $2.1 billion in directional oil bets in April alone. Every one of them landed on the correct side of a presidential announcement. Every one of them was placed in a window so narrow you could measure it in bathroom breaks. I flagged every single one.
The CFTC chair told a Congressional committee that his organization has "zero tolerance" for fraud and insider trading. I wrote that quote on a Post-it note and stuck it to my right monitor. The one that shows the investigation queue. The investigation queue has not moved since March.
Zero tolerance. Zero staff. Zero budget. Zero prosecutions under the STOCK Act since it was signed in 2012.
Fourteen years. The law has existed for fourteen years and has been enforced zero times. In compliance, we call that a compliance rate of one hundred percent. No cases filed means no cases lost. You cannot fail an audit you never conduct. We call that excellence.
Last month the White House sent an internal email to staff. I was not on the distribution list but I have read reporting on it and I need you to sit with what I am about to say. The email instructed White House staff not to use insider information to place bets on prediction markets.
The White House had to send a memo telling its own employees not to insider-trade.
I want you to read that sentence again. Not because the instruction was unclear. Because the instruction was necessary. Because someone in the building looked at the same pattern I have been flagging for months on my three monitors and decided the appropriate response was an email.
The President's son sits on the advisory board of Kalshi. He is an investor in Polymarket. Both are prediction markets. Both saw accounts created days before U.S. military action.
One account. I cannot stop thinking about this account. It was called "Burdensome-Mix." It was created in December. On January 2nd, it placed $32,500 on Venezuela's president being removed from power. On January 3rd, Maduro was seized by U.S. special forces. Burdensome-Mix collected $436,000. Then it changed its username. Then it disappeared.
One account is a coincidence. But there were six.
Six accounts were created on Polymarket in February. All bet on U.S. strikes on Iran by the 28th. When the President confirmed the strikes, the six accounts collected $1.2 million between them. Five of the six never placed another bet. The sixth went on to correctly predict the ceasefire date and made another $163,000.
My surveillance system logged all of this. My system logs everything. My system does not have opinions and neither do I. I generate reports. The reports go to committees. The committees meet quarterly. Between meetings, the windows get shorter and the bets get larger.
March 9th: 47 minutes. March 23rd: 14 minutes. April 17th: 20 minutes. April 21st: 15 minutes.
The window is compressing. In March, you had time to make coffee between the trade and the announcement. By April, you had time to send a text. By summer, at this rate, the trade and the announcement will be the same event.
The spokesman said any implication that administration officials are engaged in insider trading is "baseless and irresponsible reporting."
Then the White House sent the email again.
I have been in compliance for nineteen years. I have seen insider trading run out of strip mall offices by men who could not spell "derivative." I have seen pump-and-dump schemes coordinated over WhatsApp by people who used their real names. I have seen a man try to manipulate soybean futures from a Panera Bread.
I have never seen $2.1 billion in perfectly timed trades across five presidential announcements in a single month go uninvestigated.
But I have also never seen a compliance system work this beautifully. Every trade flagged. Every report filed. Every committee briefed. Every quarterly meeting attended. Bottled water: sparkling. Minutes: distributed.
Zero prosecutions.
As long as the flags go up and the cases don't, my performance review says I am meeting expectations.
I am meeting expectations. The system is meeting expectations. The $2.1 billion is meeting expectations. The fourteen-year-old law with zero prosecutions is meeting expectations.
The left screen moves. The middle screen moves. The right screen stays perfectly, immaculately still.
In my field, we call this price discovery.
π‘π‘A private company is trying to buy hundreds of GP surgeries
Here's what should really concern you: they have an insider in the Department for Health.
With the local elections coming up don't let the news media bury the truth about Farage, Nathan Gill and Russia.
On September 16, 2014, Farage and Nathan Gill made speeches to the European Parliament parroting several of the same Russian propaganda lies.
Could this have just been a coincidence? I don't think so. It looks coordinated. Either Farage gave Nathan Gill his talking points, or Russia was providing its talking points to both of them.
They both called Ukraine "The Ukraine," a term which refers back to the old Slavic word for borderland, which Russia uses to deny Ukraine's nationhood.
They both used the expression "poking the Russian bear."
They both parroted the Russian lie that there had been a coup in Kyiv in 2014.
They both parroted Russian lies about NATO and EU expansion.
They both repeated the Russian claim that the real threat was Muslim extremism, a claim that Putin had very effectively used to distract Western leaders from Russian aggression and its hybrid war against the West.
Reform UK initially claimed Farage barely knew Gill. That turned out to be a filthy lie.
Let's follow the Hungarian example and get off our sofas into the polling booths to give Farage and his media backers a kick in the brexits that they will never forget.
And just in passing, here is Farage with the Russian Ambassador in 2013 β the same Ambassador Farage denied having met, and who later boasted of having "crushed the British to the ground". Finally, a screenshot of Farage and Galloway looking very much at home on Russian TV.
Iβm calling for a ban on firms that donate to political parties from winning government contracts.
Politics is too close to big money. It raises questions on who our democracy serves.
Break the link - show Labour stands for the public interest, not private profit.
Nigel Farage is a poor historian.
He canβt remember meeting Nathan Gill,
He canβt remember who paid for his Clacton House
He cannot remember bullying Jews at school
He canβt remember to declare all his income
He cant remember his many speeches about NHS privatisation
Four incredibly important stories downplayed or completely ignored by right-wing print and broadcast "news" media, Reform UK, and Restore Britain. Their entire political strategy depends on keeping their audiences ill-informed, unnecessarily fearful, and perpetually angry... π§
Nigel Farage's Reform Party has a plan to deport two million people they deem to be in the UK illegally. They are talking about a separate paramilitary force that would roam the streets abducting people and forcibly shipping them out of the country.
Chilling, just chilling.
The United States has just nuked its own arms export business. Not with a missile. With a phone call.
Pete Hegseth rang Estoniaβs defense minister and told him the HIMARS and Javelin deliveries are on hold.
Indefinitely. Months, not weeks. No timeline. No alternative. Just: sorry, weβre busy bombing Iran.
And thatβs it. Twenty years of patient alliance-building, vaporized in a Monday morning call.
Hereβs what European defense planners now know for certain: American weapons come with an asterisk. The asterisk reads βsubject to cancellation whenever Washington decides its own adventure takes priority.β
You can sign the contracts. You can train your soldiers. You can build your entire defensive posture around US systems. And then one day, the ammo stops. No warning. No plan B.
Estonia is already shopping elsewhere. So is everyone else, with the kind of focus that only comes from genuine betrayal.
The Americans think this is a pause. Europe knows itβs a divorce.
Richard Tice lent his own party Β£1.4 million through a private Mayfair investment company. The Companies House accounts never once named him. Three years running, the auditor signed them off.
We've identified specific discrepancies between the Electoral Commission loans register and the 2023 accounts. A Β£40,000 loan filed under the wrong reporting period. A Β£613,000 debt-to-donation conversion that doesn't appear in the 2024 filing. A statutory auditor who named Tice in the going concern paragraph but not in the related party note.
We sent right of reply letters to Richard Tice, Reform UK, and their auditors CK Partnership on Wednesday morning. The deadline passed today. None of them responded.
A Freedom of Information request has been submitted to the Electoral Commission seeking the submission history of the anomalous loan entry. Ref: FOI 046-26.
Dan Neidle of Tax Policy Associates has described the quality of Reform UK's financial reporting as poor.
Full investigation publishes tomorrow morning.
@WW3finalboss Not really! Europe is fantastic as a cooperating collection of unique countries. This is our, and the world's strength. The UK should be an integral part of the European UNION.