Russell Degnan

Non-sport tweets. Some planning, the rest random. For the sport follow @idlesummers

[Christopher Rudge @chrisrudge]

Services Australia’s systems are too complex for their lawyers — perhaps for any lawyer. I have long thought that the right legal team could sort this out. I’m beginning to think we need a new breed of interdisciplinary lawyer-programmers. Translating statute to system…

[George Lakoff @GeorgeLakoff]

12 Traps for Democrats to Avoid🧵

1. The Issue Trap: Don’t get trapped in issue silos. Unite around common values such as Freedom and a government Of, By and For the People.
Full Link at FrameLab: https://t.co/ifwbB9IbIu

[Russell Degnan @knottedpaths]

@jameswarfe @MelbUrbanist Estimates looking at only risk of fatality in an accident without confounding factors indicate a significant issue
https://t.co/8HtXQHfoR4

[Russell Degnan @knottedpaths]

@LoclanMac @TrueBelievers15 @Blue_Pie_Ninja @maxxthum Apart from the limited utility: because even at a 20m curve radius it would require a relocation and rebuild of the QVM stop.
The only curve of that many degrees on the network is at Glenferrie Rd / Dandenong Rd and that turns into a 60m reservation.

[Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley]

So what results do you get if you ask Sir Humphrey's polling questions? @IpsosUK decided to try it. We showed 1,000 Brits his pro national service poll and 1,000 his anti national service poll. Results:

Sample A: 45% in favour of national service, 38% say no.
Sample B: 48% oppose national service, 34% say no.

What does it all mean? Well, obviously we wouldn't ever do this poll for real, wording is too leading & there are rules about transparency of q wording / ordering.

But it does show the importance of question wording, watching the detail and looking at more than just one poll when you want to understand what the public really think on an issue. Especially in election year.

More here: https://t.co/R1d6dr6dgQ

[Russell Degnan @knottedpaths]

@hillfolkAU @MattCowgill That's because the "history and reason" for it was miasma theory of disease transmission. So they need harder to disprove theories to maintain the status quo.
And sunlight is good, but illuminating driveways with 6m setbacks to have 3m deep private open space is not it.

[Russell Degnan @knottedpaths]

Have put the kittens up for adoption up on the Sugar and Spice Cat Rescue twitch stream and they are not disappointing (if you like cute kittens playing).
https://t.co/9F1v2OaoKk

[Lachlan @locksmith_1998]

Holiday project: what if they had the PTV style guide in 1952

[Russell Degnan @knottedpaths]

@LachlanLA @bikemelbourne William is grade.
Elizabeth is spacing to the surrounding stops (and the weak rail interchange because the next stop is William/Flagstaff or Swanston/Melbourne Central)
Swanston is combination of grade, tram curves and dispersing crowding away from the metro tunnel entrance

[Russell Degnan @knottedpaths]

@DavidSligar I'm here for forcing all the States to undertake tax reform though.

[Russell Degnan @knottedpaths]

@HowardFMaclean The Commonwealth can tax or grant to localities on an "as needs" basis (think Federal black spot funding) so as long as it has a defined criteria.
But State governments will still be able to tax land (not tradable across borders) and charge usage fees for services so possible way

[Russell Degnan @knottedpaths]

@benraue @mumbletwits I'd argue Dutton cares not how those seats vote because he sees demographics in those seats trending away. His path to victory is country and outer/fringe seats by positioning the party against the professional classes.
I don't think it will work but that's the plan

[Russell Degnan @knottedpaths]

The big issue from the media is this framing of issues as binary choices. "Balanced" becomes a choice between two extremists crowding out the nuance of "yes... notwithstanding...", "in principle but...", etc. Dumbing down the policy context and issues that should have been fixed.

[Russell Degnan @knottedpaths]

This. Historically the secret ballot was necessary to prevent manipulation of voters by bribery or threat.
It isn't an issue in Australia but let's not recreate a system where it could be

[Peter Brent @mumbletwits]

This reckless filled-in ballot sharing must stop! Even Anthony is doing it.
https://t.co/M2Uq40ikRS

[Russell Degnan @knottedpaths]

@MattCowgill @Jonathan_Nolan_ @retrobike_c16 Agree but would argue the length of benefits is a bigger issue. For many transport projects the biggest cost is the right of way, which has basically infinite life (land) or very very long (100+ years for tunnels). Using infra design life (30-40 years) ignores real value

[John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch]

NEW: the problem with using simple polls to measure nuanced opinions

Ask Brits or Americans about immigration, and they’ll tell you it’s too high.

But ask about specific groups of immigrants, and only a minority want numbers reduced. Plenty want an increase!

So which is it?

[Russell Degnan @knottedpaths]

@DavidSligar @MattCowgill Don't disagree, though for me the primary downside is that modern Australia is a country that doesn't believe in doing something that someone else hasn't done first.

[Russell Degnan @knottedpaths]

@MelbOnTransit That was intentional, as the shape and divergence is more important than the specifics of the plan. Here is the same graph with the projection year, fwiw:

[Russell Degnan @knottedpaths]

It remains underrated how much the demography projections for Melbourne have been off in historical plans. Not because they were done badly either, just because things changed.

[Russell Degnan @knottedpaths]

It remains underrated how much the demography projections for Melbourne have been off in historical plans. Not because they were done badly either, just because things changed.

[Russell Degnan @knottedpaths]

Which is not to say this, or any other project needs to happen, but merely to note that planning in a high growth environment has unique and significant challenges, and it is very hard for people used to "things stay much the same" to comprehend "things might be very different".

[Russell Degnan @knottedpaths]

The economic studies for the much-maligned HSR assumed a Melbourne population of 6.6-7.2m in 2050. Ultimately, population and therefore demand could be 30-40% higher than that.
Any economics done before 2002 is basically worthless because the projections are off by 40 years.