knowledge0.eth

smooth brain

[knowledge0.eth @knowledgezer00]

@shamr0ck2 @robbertleusink this u?

[knowledge0.eth @knowledgezer00]

@PythiaR can still go to googledotcom, right?

if so then google ai since basic queries return llm results and aimode is hard to stop… blocking google was the one line our IT team would not cross, our workaround until they gave us enterprise ai licenses

if not then

[knowledge0.eth @knowledgezer00]

observe the yearly open @inversebrah

[knowledge0.eth @knowledgezer00]

normally these otm puts have less than 5% chance of paying out

the hit rate is much better than normal though and >5:1 r/r imo

[knowledge0.eth @knowledgezer00]

bought otm puts on eurusd futures

last time sentiment was this extreme the euro fell about 10% vs the usd

interest rate differentials imply similar

obba raised the debt ceiling, and the treasury now needs to refill the tga, providing the catalyst

[knowledge0.eth @knowledgezer00]

@Barchart bofa fund manager survey says the same

big dollar catalyst coming soon too

80-90% hit rate iirc

may pare or full sell my bounce names

and play dxy/vol up over next month-ish

tbd

[knowledge0.eth @knowledgezer00]

the tga refill alone is enough for a high hit rate, but coupled with a mismatch between sentiment, fundamentals and fwd surprise factors, there’s juice in this trade

[knowledge0.eth @knowledgezer00]

@Barchart bofa fund manager survey says the same

big dollar catalyst coming soon too

80-90% hit rate iirc

may pare or full sell my bounce names

and play dxy/vol up over next month-ish

tbd

[knowledge0.eth @knowledgezer00]

@geoljills @Empty_America a good example is millions of acres of public land that railroads improperly sold to loggers (got sued, settled for paltry amounts)

the loggers allowed public access for years, but recently closed access and started selling a limited amount of expensive permits to hunt/fish/camp

[knowledge0.eth @knowledgezer00]

@geoljills @Empty_America public land is more open than private

it’s not even close, you know that

and the difference is growing

trail closures are small relative to:
- # of new trails
- 100s of millions of open acres
- the vast amount of private land that was open, but is now closed

[knowledge0.eth @knowledgezer00]

just a lost heritage…

…the death of the wild west

[knowledge0.eth @knowledgezer00]

if the federal government sells every single acre of public land this year, at the current market rate…

we will still have a budget deficit in ‘25, ‘26, and every year thereafter

[knowledge0.eth @knowledgezer00]

instead it is a kickback to donors

they’re buying political favors

pristine land is being exchanged for campaign funds

no measurable consideration for the public who ultimately owns it

[knowledge0.eth @knowledgezer00]

got a riding lawn mower

so excite

[knowledge0.eth @knowledgezer00]

non-US large cap stocks go on to return close to 30% over the next year, going up >90% of the time

large US stocks also do well, going up 100% of time, by an average of ~40%

[knowledge0.eth @knowledgezer00]

yesterday non-US large cap stocks hit an unprecedented streak of 15 days in a row of positive returns

since that’s never happened before i looked at a cluster of their best 15 days of returns to see what a big streak might mean for returns over the next year

results were great

[knowledge0.eth @knowledgezer00]

ppl like to big brain themselves out of good decisions, don’t do tht with kids

it’s the point of life

don’t miss it cause you’re too smart

[knowledge0.eth @knowledgezer00]

it’s hard for us to comprehend how we’ll feel or what we’ll do if x happens

we think we know
but we don’t
studies show this

the hack is asking people that know both sides of the coin

for example parents

they know what it’s like to be a parent, and what it’s like to not be

[knowledge0.eth @knowledgezer00]

what’s crazy is, when you ask them, invariably 95 out of 100 say it’s the best thing they’ve ever done

few opinions are more one sided

it’s hard, expensive, time consuming

and they wouldnt trade it for anything