Lena Komileva

The prototypical market economist. Predicted the GFC, the Euro debt crisis, Brexit and the Covid inflation shock Geoeconomics since 2010. Private clients only.

[Lena Komileva @komileva]

Markets have got used to Black Swans. There're good reasons for the striking resilience in the face of seemingly existential crises: AI, private credit and oil.

Part of this is the fact that Trump’s geopolitical playbook has become familiar.

#Iran #VIX
https://t.co/RI749VBNz6

[Lena Komileva @komileva]

Delighted to say I shall be joining the excellent economics segment of @AJEnglish in the Shard, London at 4:30pm today to discuss what next for the global economy from the #Iran #US ceasefire

[Lena Komileva @komileva]

I shall be giving a rare public interview on the impact of events in the Middle East on financial balance sheets and the global economy later today.

Looking forward to joining @AJEnglish after 3pm.

[Lena Komileva @komileva]

And markets have yet to begin to digest the new M/T reality from the #IranWar‌ and the Strait of Hormuz shock for energy, economies and policy.

And the N/T prospect of further military escalation risk.

The US tariffs Liberation Day fallout is the right market narrative here.

[Lena Komileva @komileva]

Narratives matter for global markets. Hopes of a N/T end to geopolitical risk can move price action whether there’s any tangible evidence or not.
The reality is that Iran secured a US ceasefire by taking hold of the Strait of Hormuz. There's no incentive to negotiate to US terms.

[Lena Komileva @komileva]

Trump’s unilateral, damage-limitation decision to de-escalate still leaves wide open the question of a blocked Strait of Hormuz, dwindling global gas flows, and paralysed Gulf infrastructure. And is an Israel-Iran diplomatic solution possible? The VIX curve tells the real story.

[Lena Komileva @komileva]

Israel seeks escalation. Iran has so far been contained to destablisation.

Who will sway President Trump's hand in the critical endgame of this conflict? And will advisers start engaging in active risk management now?

#IranWar‌ #MarketVolatility #oil

https://t.co/IrYHwpdU67

[Lena Komileva @komileva]

Our geoeconomics call on the #IranWar‌ pivot in markets this week has proven prescient, in both timing and direction. Risk is bleeding out of the market which is lifting risk assets.

Will technicals turn into conviction?
We see 5-sigma event risk ahead.

https://t.co/678zi3ngeJ

[Lena Komileva @komileva]

As a modest 7-figure economist investor, I support financial education and innovation. Besides creating value for HFs and public sector FMs, I'll be discussing geopolitics, markets & liquidity before trading platforms, fintech, risk managers and liquidity providers at #FMLS25

[Lena Komileva @komileva]

Bubble watch: Against the staggering valuation gaps in (highly levered) private and technology markets, the relative transparency of public market public debt frameworks offers portfolio anchor. Now now price in the geopolitics of public debt in a US-China war and...

[Lena Komileva @komileva]

In case you missed this (corrected link) my take on the market action of the week - and why the signals are worth paying attention to

https://t.co/yjlel5Ji4H

[Lena Komileva @komileva]

Mishal Husain is a national treasure and one of the finest journalists I ever met at @BBCr4today now at Bloomberg. It is great to hear her with her own voice here @MishalHusain

[Mishal Husain @MishalHusain]

We’re off - launch episode of ‘The Mishal Husain Show’ is live, please subscribe wherever you find your podcasts ➡️ https://t.co/VCukFKwNMZ

You’ll get an in depth conversation every Friday from Bloomberg Weekend ⬇️
https://t.co/IWoEdnyWq7

[Lena Komileva @komileva]

Day in and day out risk sellers sound bullish on risk.

The centre of this crisis is the financial system, well beyond the initial impulse of tariffs, given the US dollar’s central position.

With current dislocated market valuations, the next big rotation lies ahead.

Hedge.

[Lena Komileva @komileva]

The pattern of US policy making: continuous threats of risk escalation, followed by quick retreats, stage-managed at critical points for US markets (Bessent interventions), before more escalation (Trump instincts). We have been looking for an off ramp for a while. Use this wisely

[Lena Komileva @komileva]

Markets are broken.
The economy is not (right now).
We know what the themes are that drive the direction of travel.
Some repricing is overdue.

[Lena Komileva @komileva]

Markets are broken.
The economy is not (right now).
We know what the themes are that drive the direction of travel.
Some repricing is overdue.

[Lena Komileva @komileva]

This is a big capitulation, the second in less than a week. And it's happening for domestic political reasons. Policy collapsing under the pressure of its own impact. #TariffWar

[Lena Komileva @komileva]

BN: “Trump Exempts Phones, Computers, Chips From ‘Reciprocal’ Tariffs”
A policy that took two months of threats, a shelf life of less than 24hrs, and now exemptions -
Still chaotic, but also unsustainable, and so the path is de-escalation
This is what the impact was going to be:

[Lena Komileva @komileva]

BN: “Trump Exempts Phones, Computers, Chips From ‘Reciprocal’ Tariffs”
A policy that took two months of threats, a shelf life of less than 24hrs, and now exemptions -
Still chaotic, but also unsustainable, and so the path is de-escalation
This is what the impact was going to be:

[Lena Komileva @komileva]

Weathering Geopolitical Uncertainty - Amidst the chaos and volatility, I see value in what we do know.

Remember, successful investment is understanding the direction of macro risk travel.

Here is what this looks like right now:
https://t.co/O1DGwI1v0a

[Lena Komileva @komileva]

But there is an international system dimension to the GBP plight too:

The contagion from the capital flight from US markets for the UK’s services-based, financials-dominated economy, even if it is at the mild end of the global tariffs spat.

This is a big deal for UK credit #BoE

[Lena Komileva @komileva]

GBP retains an acute case of ‘dollaritis’.

In a week when markets prioritised liquidity, the stark underperformance of UK stocks (vs EU assets) and bonds (vs UST) speaks to the ‘Brexit discount’ of a small, open economy reliant on global trade and capital, in a fragmented world