空浪 @konglang_616 - Twitter Profile

最后讲一遍，目前所有市面上关于华为麒麟9000S代工全是错的。真实的情况如同我上周分析总结的： 1. 麒麟9000S是中芯国际代工，且在今年2月份已经获得了来自美国商务部的license许可，是合理合法、光明正大地帮华为代工； 2. 华为获得license，是布林肯访华的先决条件大礼包之一，布林肯和拜登政府为了急于修复因为气球事件而紧张的对华关系，急于与中方展开对话，因此答应了中方提出的先决条件。这其中就包括中芯国际为华为代工麒麟芯片获得的美国商务部license。 3. 中芯国际已经有比较成熟的、接近7nm的N+2工艺，但良率较低，之前为某国产矿机代工过，核心依然是荷兰ASML的DUV光刻机1980i——因此必须且只能在美国的许可license获得后，才能帮entity list中的机构（如华为）合法代工。在获得了来自白宫和商务部的批准后，从今年2月份起正式为华为加紧代工麒麟9000S芯片——但另一方面，布林肯访华被一再拖延，并且以羞辱的“外长访华”的待遇接待。 4. 目前中芯国际被美国长期禁购EUV光刻机，因此目前N+2的近似7nm制程，是中芯国际也是中国大陆芯片代工厂的极限制程，短期内无法突破；目前华为因为无法采购美国ARM的最新IP core，因此麒麟9000S短期内无法突破性能和设计瓶颈，也无法通过工艺改进性能和功耗。可以说，如果没有解除其他制裁的前提下，麒麟9000S已经达到了性能极限，之后几代产品基本也不会有质的飞跃和提升。 5. 目前中芯国际获得为华为代工的license，是美国商务部和中芯国际、华为的内部协议，三方都没有公开，因此目前全球主流媒体拿不到任何消息源和资料，证明我以上的所有观点。我的观点也全部来自于我和我微信群小伙伴们对新闻和技术的分析，没有证据，全是归纳和推测——但目前几乎不存在其他可能情况和意外，我对以上论点相当有信心。 -- To reiterate, all current claims in the market regarding Huawei's Kirin 9000S being outsourced are entirely incorrect. The real situation aligns with my analysis and summary from last week: 1. The Kirin 9000S is indeed manufactured by SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation), and in February of this year, it obtained a license from the U.S. Department of Commerce, making it a legitimate and open collaboration with Huawei. 2. Huawei's acquisition of this license was part of a larger package of prerequisites for Blinken's visit to China. The Biden administration was eager to engage in dialogue with China to alleviate tensions arising from various incidents, including the Huawei case. Therefore, they agreed to China's proposed conditions, including the requirement for SMIC to obtain a U.S. Department of Commerce license for manufacturing Kirin chips for Huawei. 3. SMIC already possesses a relatively mature N+2 process technology, close to 7nm. However, its yield rates are low. Previously, they had manufactured mining machines for a certain domestic company, using core equipment from ASML, the Dutch manufacturer of DUV (Deep Ultraviolet) lithography machines, model 1980i. Therefore, SMIC could only legally manufacture for entities on the U.S. entity list, such as Huawei, after receiving the necessary licenses from the U.S. With approval from the White House and the Department of Commerce, they began ramping up production of Kirin 9000S chips for Huawei from February this year. However, Blinken's visit to China has been repeatedly postponed and met with a less than respectful reception as the "Secretary of State's visit." 4. Currently, SMIC is subject to a long-term U.S. embargo on EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) lithography machines. As a result, the N+2 process, which is roughly equivalent to 7nm, represents the limit for SMIC and other mainland Chinese chip foundries in the short term. Due to its inability to procure the latest IP core from ARM, Huawei cannot overcome the performance and design bottlenecks for the Kirin 9000S in the short term. Improvements in performance and power efficiency through process enhancements are also unattainable. In essence, without the removal of other sanctions, the Kirin 9000S has already reached its performance limits, and subsequent generations of products are unlikely to achieve significant leaps or improvements. 5. The license obtained by SMIC for manufacturing on behalf of Huawei is part of an internal agreement between the U.S. Department of Commerce, SMIC, and Huawei. This agreement has not been publicly disclosed, and as a result, mainstream media outlets worldwide have no access to any information or documentation that would confirm the points I've made above. My views are entirely based on my own analysis and that of my WeChat group colleagues, with no concrete evidence. They are all inferences and deductions. However, at present, there are almost no other plausible scenarios or surprises, which gives me a high degree of confidence in the points mentioned above.

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