kory

Alt Coins + Meme Coins = 💲💲💲

[Sykodelic 🔪 @Sykodelic_]

I just cannot unsee all these 2019 comparisons.

There are simply far too many.

The top chart is TOTAL3/BTC, it shows us the strength of Alts against Bitcoin.

We can see that every cycle top TOTAL3/BTC has spiked massively, then distributed as Bitcoin tops and drops again.

In 2022, TOTAL3/BTC distributed for ages and didn't start dropping until Bitcoin bottomed.

But where are right now is a completely different place entriely.

And it looks exactly like 2019, when Bitcoin had a mid cycle correction.

Bitcoin topped, and TOTAL3/BTC bottomed, as alts were stronger than Bitcoin on the drop.

Which is exactly what is happening now.

Bitcoin topped in October, and TOTAL3/BTC bottomed.

There is no two ways about this...

It looks nothing like any other cycle.

It looks the mirror of 2019.

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

Green phase of the cycle has begun.

[Jesse Myers @Croesus_BTC]

STRC down to $82.6 today. Here's my read:

1. Strategy is fine. If everything stays as is, they can pay STRC dividends for 32 years. If BTC appreciates at ~2% CAGR, they can pay dividends indefinitely.

2. Why the sell-off? This appears to be a liquidation cascade.

Over the last 6 months, the narrative became that STRC volatility was reducing, and price began to spend all its time in $99-100 range.

This invites leverage. If you expect the price to always be north of $95, you can take on 20x leverage with your portfolio to buy more STRC and dramatically increase the yield on your portfolio.

This works great, until it doesn't.

STRC is designed as a free-market asset. When attention shifted to SATA and STRC price flagged, it may have raised the attention of opportunistic short-selling hedge funds.

By shorting aggressively, they could push the price down and start triggering margin calls and liquidations from folks who aggressively levered up their STRC positions.

The price action today is a clear liquidation cascade, rapidly pushing prices lower, in turn triggering additional liquidations.

3.
What happens now? The market will heal itself.

Opportunistic hedge funds will recognize that this is a firesale and the fundamentals are unchanged for STRC and step in as buyers. Shorts will close, becoming buyers. Individuals are getting a tremendous entry price for long-term holding STRC shares.

Buyers at this level will get ~13.7% effective yield. If STRC trades back to $100 and they sell, they get an easy +18% return.

4.
What will Strategy do?

Strategy will likely increase the dividend rate on June 30 - maybe to 11.75% but possibly to 12%. Buyers at the current price level then would get 14.2% effective yield from that point forward.

Strategy may also step in to buy STRC shares back. They could do this by issuing new shares of MSTR (currently at 1.14 mNAV) or by taking on traditional debt and deploying those funds to buy discounted STRC shares on the market.

If/when STRC trades back to $100, Strategy could then re-issue those STRC shares. The ~$15 delta per share could be used to buy BTC as pure accretion to MSTR holders, with no net change to amplification.

No doubt that Saylor has already at least considered this, and it wouldn't surprise me if they're currently doing this.

5.
In summary...

The market is freaked out that this depeg is like Terra/Luna... but this is not an asset like that. Strategy's balance sheet determines whether STRC continues to receive dividend payments... and Strategy's balance sheet is completely unchanged.

This is a leverage wipeout.

From this, the market will learn that Digital Credit is mostly very low volatility. But because it is a free market asset, the longer that a Digital Credit instrument trades within a tight range to par... the more leverage will inevitably pile up as people get greedy.

And that creates the conditions for a leverage wipeout depeg. Following that, the instrument will make its way back to par value as the market heals itself and recognizes that the dividend payments will continue uninterrupted because the issuer's balance sheet is unaffected.

[CHETAN @CG_trades_]

everything is in control…

$BTC just testing its 2017 channels low….

as long as price is holding above 58963$ on monthly TF…. its one of the best buying opportunity….

still not added any new money since feb 60k buy… but now i’ll add big again if #BTC gives me a last opportunity around 58963$ with some of #ALTCOINS setups…

every panic seller going to cry harder… in coming months…

and every panic buyer going to print extraordinary wealth in coming months…✍️

#BITCOIN

[Moe @Crypto_Moe84]

I repeat: Nothing changed

The Bottom (60k) is in

BTC is in an accumulation-process

There is no "bear-flag" - and no "bear-flag" which will break to the downside ...

Its just fear in your head - ignore the daily noise

The next major HTF-Leg will be up

relax and have patience 🤝

you know that i will remember you later 🤝

[Tristan Tate @TateTheTalisman]

Happy pride month to all the normal gay people who think gay pride month is fucking retarded and just want to live their lives in quiet peace without constantly drawing attention to who they sleep with and by what means.

To the qia2s+ etc psychos. I hope your month sucks.

🏳️‍🌈❤️

[kory @Kory1427]

@ColinTCrypto @Eze_Wilberforce This is not a bear market. Simply a mid-cycle correction. 126k was the mid-cycle top. Follow the macro, look at PMI, copper/gold, Russel 2000, etc.

[kory @Kory1427]

@Crypto_Moe84 lol the fact that you think he’s copying you, and your obsession over it is so cringe and delusional 🤢 you’re not that guy, pal

[Sykodelic 🔪 @Sykodelic_]

@CryptoCon_ Bro… plz

Learn the definition of a bear flag.

This is ACCUMULATION

[Ethereum Community Foundation @ethcforg]

The first stablecoin from a U.S. national bank just launched on Ethereum

The ticker is ethereum:native

[Stuart Parker, blancmange impersonator & cannibal @stuartlosaltos]

Graves found: 0
Churches burned: 132

Great job, Canadians. Great job.

[kory @Kory1427]

@GordonGekko @realio_network

[James @JamesEastonUK]

$ETH is on the BRINK of its Netflix moment.

The potential is disgusting.

[Moe @Crypto_Moe84]

$BTC

No time to explain

[Moe @Crypto_Moe84]

$ETH

They told you "Bear-flag"

I told them FUCK YOU and FUCK YOUR BEAR-FLAG

Fuck-You candle loading

No time to explain

[BT @_BT_BT_BT_]

"Ethereum needs to be saved"

Somebody should tell Ethereum that.

[Sykodelic 🔪 @Sykodelic_]

@R89Capital Spiritually obese is the right term.

Being a healthy person isn’t about your weight, it’s about your character and your discipline.

It’s why being in shape is a statement because you literally can’t cheat your way there.

[MrParaBULLic @iLiquidatebots]

ALTSEASON

Your bags are supposed to feel heavy MF. It means you’re properly loaded and ready for generational wealth.

Accept that you’ll never do anything better in your life, ai killed the last dreamers and going all in crypto is your last shot to break out of irrelevance

[MartyParty @martypartymusic]

Reread the game theory - still accurate. Treasury market flashing. Warsh in. 👀🍿

[Sykodelic 🔪 @Sykodelic_]

The pieces continue to fall as predicted.

The contraction to expansion process is following its usual pattern to a complete tee.

I remember when Gold was pushing $5,000 and everyone was screaming to rotate into it and that its "gonna pump for 10 years".

No.

If it wasn't clear back then that it had topped, then it should be now.

And since then, the rotation to Bitcoin has begun, just how it has in every other cycle.

And all of this has happened as the Business cycle enters into expansion.

Do you honestly think this is just a coincidence?

Gold runs harder within Business cycle contraction because it is a risk off asset, and when the business cycle is in contraction, so too is the economy.

Then, when the economy enters expansion, Gold tops and Bitcoin takes over.

It's really quite simple.

Business cycle contracts -> Gold runs
Business cycle expands -> Bitcoin runs

And each time Gold has topped just as the business cycle enters expansion... literally within a week.

From there, Bitcoin takes its turn it has run for 420 to 470 days.

It's extremely accurate and highly logical, but for some reason, everyone will keep fading this and accepting a time based 4 year cycle view instead of fundamental macro.

Couldn't be me.