🇨🇳 "BEIJING HAS NOT EARNED THE SUSPENSION OF DISBELIEF."
Following is the complete opening statement of SeaLight Director Ray Powell at today's Saturday News Forum in Quezon City:
Good morning. To begin with allow me to pay tribute to the milestone we are marking this week – the courage, conviction and skill of those extraordinary Filipinos who 10 years ago dared to take on and face down a rising superpower, and who defeated it on the strength of the law and their belief that their cause was just. Their nation and the world owe them a tremendous debt – one which continues to inspire and guide today’s Filipino patriots and all believers in the importance of a rule of law that stands above any one nation’s coercive will.
They have earned the deep respect and admiration of their countrymen, as well as my own.
Now let me turn my attention to the events of this past week.
Two days ago, SeaLight broke the story that a symposium of Chinese academics — assembled to justify China's claims to major new parts of the exclusive economic zones of Japan and the Philippines, and the related patrols east of the Bashi Channel — had unanimously concluded that the Batanes Islands belong to China.
Since then, senior Philippine officials have united to firmly denounce that claim. But some commenters have framed those responses as an overreaction, and have sought to dismiss the whole affair as a mere academic exercise unworthy of a reply.
That approach either misunderstands or misrepresents the nature of China's playbook — a gray-zone and information-warfare campaign for maritime East Asia that has been on clear display for more than five decades. Those who dismiss it are playing directly into Beijing's hands.
So let me be clear about what I believe is actually happening here.
The Batanes claim cannot be separated from what China is doing in the water. Since the first of June, China’s coast guard has begun running continuous patrols east of Taiwan, into the Philippine Sea, and has been framing those patrols as necessary to protect its sovereign rights and interests. This new sovereignty claim and those sovereignty-framed patrols are inextricably linked.
The scholars themselves were clear about this: the Japan-Philippines maritime talks – which are an entirely routine exercise under international law and norms – were not the cause of this. They were the pretext. China did what it wanted to do anyway — to push its patrols outside the First Island Chain, beyond anything it had previously claimed, beyond even its own 2023 Standard Map and ten-dash line.
The scholars were assembled afterward to supply a legal veneer. And for Beijing, a veneer is enough when backed by military and paramilitary force.
Some are making much of the fact that no Chinese government official has formally claimed Batanes. That is true, and we made that clear from the very beginning. But do not mistake silence for restraint. When your government coast guard is already running intrusive patrols in the area now being claimed, you do not need a government spokesperson to read the claim aloud.
The patrols are the government's position. Filtering the initial rhetorical case through academics and state media is a feature, not a bug.
Those who have paid attention to the Chinese Communist Party’s gray zone campaign to control maritime East Asia are not fooled. They have learned from China’s creeping expansionism across places like Mischief Reef, Scarborough Shoal, Whitsun Reef and Sabina Shoal, and are wise to apply those lessons to Batanes.
To give Beijing the benefit of the doubt now, you would have had to be asleep for the past five decades. Beijing has not earned the suspension of disbelief.
I still get questions about the difference between US missile tests & China’s SLBM test in the Pacific.
Short version: the US pays rent to land missiles on an agreed target inside its ally’s territory, *outside* the Rarotonga nuclear-free zone, on a schedule published years ahead;
China dropped its missile into the commons, inside the Rarotonga zone, beside the EEZs of states it didn’t ask, on a single day’s disguised notice.
These aren’t the same thing, even setting aside the critical importance of intent.
@Designatedkitty I'm not a fan of the series to make a solid stance on this but there's a dude named wurm just attempting to defend this criticized(imo aesthetically displeasing) remake on almost every post.
People who have panic attacks when they have to make a phone call sure are looking forward to the collapse of society and think they can win a civil war.
>get elected as an indigenous socialist leader who ‘wants to improve lives’
>nationalise gas and use massive fuel subsidies to buy votes
>gas fields deplete due to mismanagement and corruption
>deficits explode, subsidies drain billions in dollars and reserves
>country is heading towards bankruptcy
>try gas hike once, get hit by riots because people can’t afford it so double down and kick can down road
>economy continues to tank, currency crashes, quality of life decreases
>become massively unpopular
>start engineering changes to the constitution and election fraud to stay in power
>get caught and it blows up, military launches a coup
>flee to jungle amid corruption probes on contracts and cronies as subsidies continue to tank economy
>new right wing government announces financially painful but necessary end to subsidies
>from jungle base call on indigenous community supporter base to riot and denounce the new government as imperialist fascists
@CEOofFuggy Sucks it starts in my country, already cucked by stupid laws, red tape, taxes, regulations, and hundreds more then on top of it all they're looking forward to strip digital privacy and freedom. First world problems, third world status, fuck this shithole.
@mojorisn75 I don't recall where I read it anymore but I did remember like a staggering amount of the primary long distance logistics i.e. railways and trains was sourced from the US lend lease.
@mojorisn75 I think its understated and undercredited how much of the logistical backbone of the Soviet Union was sourced from the US such as the trains, railways, trucks, and more. Tbh logistics alone is heavily understated on their impact to the war but this one is more egregious.
China is complaining that we have EDCA bases in the Philippines and in the same video, they are also complaining that we haven't done enough to actually turn EDCA sites in operational US military bases that would actually pose some kind of threat to China. I guess it's an effort to demonstrate that we aren't serious about our MDT commitment? I'm not sure what kind of straws they're grasping at here, but they seem to be suggesting that the Philippines has no right to defense agreements with which Beijing disagrees or something
@HaruhiismOtaku It takes a decent amount of balancing but imo don't include it at all if its gonna be relegated to be a peashooter with wet fart explosions.
imo the only game genre I see that does these justice would be hardcore/milsim fps like squad and arma.