Climate Scientist @ GFDL. Lecturer at Rutgers. Formerly on TV. Personal account. Tweets do not represent views of NOAA or the US Government. RT≠Endorsement.
@nynjpaweather Great post. I’d add that rather than making it an all or nothing argument, the idea now is to quantify *how much* climate change contributed to a particular event. It can be done, but it is hard to do and even harder to communicate.
@ryanhallyall It’s really not all that uncertain. This storm is clearly NOT coming up the coast. Overall mid level pattern does not support that scenario
@JoeMartWx@JoeMartWx - When I checked in yesterday for my flight today, they offered me the option to fly a day early. You might be able to get a flight out this afternoon if you’re lucky.
@JoeMartWx I’d liken it to changing the transmission in your car. You need to get the parts to work smoothly with each other.
The models all have a lot in common already, but there’s work to be done to make it all mesh.
@JoeMartWx As a modeler, a lot goes into tuning the physics parameterizations. This is mostly science, but a little bit of art/experience, and sometimes luck. I think it’s because the NAM’s boundary layer and microphysics schemes are seeing things correctly.
@WeatherProf Real climate scientist here. This image shows the influence natural variability from the AMO/AMV. Heat transport oscillates likes this every couple of decades. This is not a climate change signal.
AMOC slow down is still a real concern, but not during this time frame.