Eclair ✝️

[Dr. Maalouf ‏ @realMaalouf]

“We don’t want to assimilate into American society and disappear. We want to completely revamp Americans and make them Muslims.

Our final objective is to create an Islamic system that rules all over America.”

This was in 1989. It has been their plan all along! And this is why we are now seeing Muslims being elected all over the country. Pay close attention!

[Asuka @asuka_aryan]

Giving inferior species access to the White mans technology was a mistake which can be corrected. Star Trek talked about this.

[Eclair ✝️ @KrazEclair]

@cirnosad Logos also means message

[Eclair ✝️ @KrazEclair]

@cirnosad John identifies Jesus Christ as the eternal Word or Logos of the Father, who became flesh for the salvation of the world. Yet the world that Christ saves is his world from the beginning, for he is also the Logos of creation, the one “through whom all things were made” (John 1:3)

[Geiger Capital @Geiger_Capital]

This is insane…

Denmark’s Ministry of Finance released official data on the net fiscal contribution of immigrants from 36 different countries…

24/26 non-Muslim nations benefit taxpayers.
All 10 Muslim nations cost Denmark money.

[Commentary Rachel ❤️ @RachelMcXe]

daily reminder

[Korobochka (コロボ) 🇦🇺✝️🇷🇺 @cirnosad]

If you think this is the first time something like this has ever happened, you would be mistaken.

Judaizers, include Peter himself, were called out by Paul. There's good reason to believe that they emerged partially victorious -- but not entirely. They were too stupid to poison all of Jesus's seeds. This is why he spoke in parables and the gospel itself is of that kind, it was like a steganographic protection over its meaning.

[Benoit Martin @benoitm_mtl]

Suite à la décision du président 🇦🇷 Milei de céder 3 K km² à des entreprises Israéliennes 🇮🇱.

Les indigènes de Humahuaca sont expulsés de la province de Jujuy où ils étaient présents depuis le 11è siècle !

La quasi-totalité des terres données à 🇮🇱 sont peuplées d’autochtones.

[Luc-Ferdinand.Saline @L_F_Saline]

Jean Baudrillard vous souhaite bonnes vacances !

[Eclair ✝️ @KrazEclair]

@DerLoup @Gizzmo4141 You should and it's fun!

[cirnohappy 🇨🇦✝️🇯🇵 @cirnohappy]

Cirno's Perfect Math Class #4 📃

Today we cover medical screens, a heterodox take on an air crash, and the mystery of the Great Pyramid!

The whole idea of conditional probability is that of weights. A canonical example is that of a clinical test. Say the PSA test has a 15% false positive. This means that 15% of true negatives are flagged as positive. Let's assume that the false negative rate is 20%. This means that 20% of true positives are missed.

Now you go to your doctor and get tested (terrible pun I know). The test comes positive! Should you be worried?

There is critical piece of information that is missing. What could it be? We need to know the prior, or in this case, the baseline risk of prostate cancer in the relevant population. Let's say that you are of the age and health profile that an estimated 5% of your cohort would be expected to actually have it.

Then let us consider the four possibilities, using weights:

1. Actually positive, tested positive: 5% (the prior) * 80% = 4%
2. Actually positive, tested negative: 5% * 20% = 1%
3. Actually negative, tested positive: 95% * 15% = 14.25%
4. Actually negative, tested negative: 95% * 85% = 80.75%

Note that the four probabilities do add up to 100%
But we have new information (positive test) that allows us to discard some cases, namely lines 2 and 4.

What is left? 4% and 14.25%
So the probability that you actually have prostate cancer is (4% / (4% + 14.25%) ≈ 21.9%

So should you be worried? More than before you took the test (recall the baseline was 5%), but not so much that you should be taking radical measures like surgery. For this reason, a wise man called Charles T. Munger would always scratch out his doctor's orders for the PSA test. He lived to the fine old age of 99.

This is an extremely powerful way of thinking. I use it every day where I work (options trading). But most humans get it wrong! Here's a news headline that many of us noticed from last year: "Sole survivor of Air India crash still seeks answers" -BBC

The official story: https://t.co/twgD2N2pUx

My interest was piqued because this was a 787 crash shortly after takeoff, and thus with nearly full tanks of fuel. The plane hit a building (which didn't explode nor collapse lol) and the single purported survivor was supposedly seated in 11A (not at the rear of the plane where survivors are more likely to be found). Incredibly, he was only lightly injured and was able to walk away from the wreckage.

Following the example above, a grid like this came up in my head:

1. Chances of surviving and being able to walk if on the plane: 1/100,000
2. Chances of dying or getting heavily injured if on the plane: 99,999/100,000
3. Chances of there being a fraud on the ground where a passerby claims to be a crash survivor, conditional that a plane crash has happened in any crowded part of India: 1/100
4. Chances of there not being a fraud on the ground where a passerby claims to be a crash survivor, conditional that a plane crash has happened in any crowded part of India: 99/100

These numbers are of course approximate, but they come from some familiarity of civil aviation, engineering, physics, and the relative propensities of people to cheat and commit fraud.

Quickly, we can see that if a relatively unscathed "survivor" is spotted on the ground, then lines 2 and 4 are not germane.

There were 230 passengers, so the approximate odds of a lightly-injured survivor are (actual will depend on correlation and independence assumptions and we won't go there) 230 * 1/100,000 = 23 / 10,000
And the odds of there being a fraudster are simply 1 / 100 as above.

So the odds of the "survivor" being real are approximately (0.0023 / 0.01 + 0.0023) ≈ 23.2%

Interesting. Why would someone fake being a plane survivor? Fame, fun and excitement, compensation from the airline, and a potential UK visa can all be reasons why a passerby in India may want to commit such a fraud. I hate that human nature is this way, but when thinking in probability we should take the world as it is.

Now for our final example! My dear oomfie made some bold claims concerning the Great Pyramid of Giza. The one "coincidence" that I found most challenging to my previously held beliefs was the fact that speed of light (defined as exactly 299,792,458 m/s), divided by 10^7, converted to a line of latitude in decimal notation, exactly traverses the Pyramid!! If you don't believe me, try pasting (29.9792458, 31.134015) into Google Maps.

Crucially, the meter and second are not arbitrarily defined units, but both are linked to some physical property of the Earth! The circumference of the Earth is approximately 40,000m, and one second is 1/86,400, 86,400 being merely the 60 seconds * 60 minutes * 24 hours of a mean solar day, or one rotation of the Earth. The speed of light is a universal constant. Finally, the definitions of the second and degree rely on highly composite numbers like 360, 60, and 24.

So, these quantities, being tied to physical and numerical reality, would have been available to any humans preceding us on Earth.

Here's a simplified table:

1. The people who made the Pyramid knew about c, and decided to construct the Pyramid on this latitude on purpose.

2. The people who made the Pyramid didn't know about c, but just happened to build the Pyramid on the exact latitude line by chance.

Assuming that the builders had a choice of any latitude (all equally likely) within the borders of modern Egypt, which runs about 9 degrees tall, or 1000km, we can take the side lengths of the Pyramid's base (440 cubits or 440 * 0.5236 ≈ 230.38 meters) and divide by 1,000,000m for the approximate chance that a randomly distributed Pyramid in Egypt would fall on this line of latitude. This is 230.38 / 1000000 ≈ 0.023%. Note that this is the odds that the Pyramid, built directly north-south (as it is), would intersect at all with the latitude, not necessarily a bulls-eye.

What about the prior? Specifically, what are the chances that some earlier, technologically sophisticated peoples constructed the Pyramid? This is where things get hairy. The results of a Bayesian analysis depend heavily on the prior. If we had conclusive proof that no such civilization existed, then we are still in the clear, and can conclude that this was pure coincidence. However, as any mathematician knows, proving the absence of something is much harder than finding a counterexample. I don't really know where to start, but considering that in recent months and years I have (to my dismay) discovered to my satisfaction, many more lies in the historical record, I am prepared to give at least a 1% chance that some technologically advanced predecessor civilization did in fact exist.

So if our predecessors knew about c, what are the chances that they would build it on the latitude line corresponding to the speed of light? Let's say they have a splendid sense of numerology and we can assign this with something like 10%.

Case 1: 1% (They knew) * 10% (they decided to build it on this line) = 0.1%

Okay this is not much, but let's now look at Case 2.

Case 2: 99% (They didn't know) * 0.023% (built it here by chance) ≈ 0.0228%

This simulation, as reliant on the priors as it is, suggests a 0.1% / (0.1% + 0.0228%) ≈ 81% chance that @cirnosad is right! This is a deeply disturbing conclusion, one that shook me to the core.

What have we avoided till now in this lesson? Any mention of Bayes' formula! It's true, your baka struggles to remember it because he usually resorts to intuition, absolving him of memorizing this unwieldily relation:
P(A | B) = P(B | A) P(A) / P(B)

Thanks for following me all the way. /End

[Lord Bebo @MyLordBebo]

🇬🇧‼️🚨 BROTHEL TO SAVE A VILLAGE?

The UK government wants to put 1250 single male migrants into a facility that borders a small village with 350 people.

Piddington has a small population with 65% being women or children. So for every woman and kid, 9 single male migrants will be there.

Now everyone ask the question “what will the men do?” And they cynically demand a “brothel” so the villagers will be safe.

Kinda crazy that everyone knows it’s a bad idea.

So the suggested safety concept is to give the asylum seekers prostitutes so they don’t hurt the villagers? That by itself is a crazy place to be.

Also that means, Brits pay their taxes so refugees can be housed and then British taxes would pay for prostitutes for these men … work hard folks, the prostitutes need their money. 🤷‍♂️

[Korobochka (コロボ) 🇦🇺✝️🇷🇺 @cirnosad]

Parasitism is all about forcing you to make a bond with something you don't want or need.
JudeoSatanism takes it a step further and tears apart all the bonds you do need, prevents the forging of any such bonds, and even destroys the very object of your subject.
It must be destroyed!

[Eclair ✝️ @KrazEclair]

@cirnosad Goodnight!

[Korobochka (コロボ) 🇦🇺✝️🇷🇺 @cirnosad]

If this gets 500 RTs (XD) I'll make another thread, connecting this entire system to something equally shocking, revealing a weapon of creation and destruction that exceeds anything we have ever imagined.

[Eclair ✝️ @KrazEclair]

@Telegraph @ThatAlexWoman We're past the point where we listened to women's opinion.

[auspill @aus_pill]

"Hate speech is a genocidal concept made up by communists as a pretext to silence resistance against Australian's replacement"

[TECTONE 🇺🇸 @Tectone]

Why are they called minorities if they’re literally fucking everywhere