Olivia
Online
crypto_mania
@kreptoDefi
Joined January 2024
403 Following
14 Followers
100 Posts
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Make. The. Jump 💜
Is it over? or...
Has the REAL bull market not even begun yet?
If you’re feeling lost, here’s my game plan to navigate the rest of the cycle:
(Including my portfolio strategy)
First, you can’t make good decisions if your emotions are compromised. Take a few days off if you need to calm down.
It’s ok to feel like shit. This crash caught everyone off guard. We survived Mt. Gox, Terra Luna, and FTX - we'll get through this.
The good news is every crash in Crypto has always been an opportunity IF you can navigate it well.
(By the way, bookmark this post so you can re-visit it)
PART 1: PORTFOLIO STRATEGY
Are you calm? Good. Next, take a look at that bloodbath of a portfolio.
Everything's gone haywire and you need to rebalance to something you're comfortable with.
No one knows what's happening in the next few months: U.S. Elections are in a few months, and the situation in the middle east keeps escalating.
Things could get worse, so you should focus on survival. Maybe your portfolio's down 30%, but it doesn't mean it can't go down even further. You can't play if it's game over for ya.
(By the way, anyone telling you to be aggressive right now probably has an ulterior motive. No one gets rich from preaching solid risk management)
If your portfolio is 90%+ in altcoins then you’re not going to survive.
For me personally, I’m aiming for 25% majors, 45% stables, and 30% alts.
It's a nice balance for my goals. I'm in the middle where I want to preserve my portfolio, while accumulating some quality alts I believe in.
Majors: BTC, ETH, Solana. Get whatever you want.
Stablecoins: USDC or USDT. If you want, you can put it to work and get some solid stablecoin yields on 0xFluid or other protocols.
Stablecoins are here to protect your portfolio, and to quickly scoop up more projects when the tides shift.
Altcoins: You’re not going to get rich off of Stablecoins and majors at this point. Altcoins are the “strikers” of your football team. And this could be the best time to buy them at a discounted price.
Here are a few things I’m personally looking at.
First, I don’t know how long these choppy market conditions are going to last. I want to buy some altcoins that are more fundamental based than just pure hype (like memes or AI).
Think...what are the kind of tokens you'd buy in a bear market?
Some criteria I like:
• Metrics: Strong TVL relative to price. Generates revenue.
• What’s recovering the strongest after yesterday.
• Money in the treasury to survive a drought.
• Hardcore community of believers.
• Product / market fit and users.
A few projects I’m interested in include Mantle, Pendle, and BananaGun
(I’m not trying to shill anything, but the post comes off too generic if I don’t share anything specific).
I’m avoiding anything too high risk. And I'm avoiding accumulating too many alts right now.
Why? Narratives come and go. It's ok to wait for more information on the direction of the cycle before firing more bullets.
As far as WHEN to buy? The only kind of TA I like doesn't involve drawing lines on charts.
I bought tokens yesterday. I’ll buy some next month. I’ll buy some the month after that. Dollar cost averaging gives me emotional simplification.
I’ve had situations before where I unloaded my clip thinking it was the lowest point. And then it keeps dipping and it feels so much regret and rumination.
By having a simple system of DCA’ing, I free myself mentally.
PART 2: CASHFLOW
Cashflow’s king.
If you have money coming in then you don’t have to keep rotating your bags. Cashflow keeps you sane in volatile times - especially if it means you don’t have to sell Crypto to cover your living expenses.
Obviously everyone wants to make more money, but how do you do it?
It’s hard to give you advice on generating cashflow. I don’t know what you're good at!
More cashflow could simply mean hopping to a new job w/ higher salary, negotiating your wages, or picking up extra hours.
I know this space hates 9 to 5 jobs, so I'm going to assume that you have zero cashflow coming in, and no monetizable skills.
What should you do?
• Reading Navalmanack by Eric Jorgensen will give you a great foundation on how to think about modern business. Develop specific knowledge x leverage.
• Reverse engineer everyone. My best business ideas have always come from observing other people. I don't listen to what they say, I watch what they do.
What are they shilling? How do they make money? How does it work? What's the business model?
• Just try shit. Everything makes money: writing, video editing, programming, agencies, etc.
You're looking for the intersection of (what do you enjoy) x (what you're good at) x (what people are willing to pay for).
I'm a shitty programmer. I'm not much of a people person. But years ago I realized I could write every single day and not get bored of it. So I've been able to build a business based off that.
I only discovered that after trying a bunch of things.
One underrated benefit of cashflow is that it gives you something else to focus on. I think too much time in the trenches can cause you to over-rotate and underperform.
PART 3: LEARNING
How I approach learning these days:
• I make a note every time I see a phrase or a term I’m not familiar with. I’ll do a quick 5-10 minute research to see if it’s worth my time to learn. If it is, then I’ll spend a few hours researching.
Laser focus rather than diluting my attention.
• I try out new dApps on a burner wallet. I’ll check out the DefiLlama/ recent for newly listed protocols.
This is how you discover gems before the rest of the timeline does.
• Play around in ecosystems I’m not familiar with. I’m pretty familiar with ETH L2s and Solana. But I haven’t spent that much time in the TON ecosystem lately. So I’ll check that out.
• Reflecting. In the words of Dalio, “Pain + Reflection = Progress.” I need to spend the next few days trying to see if there are any lessons I can gain from this experience. The way you trade/invest is an algorithm in your head. Reflecting is how you “update” that algorithm.
• Improving your information diet. If you want to have better thoughts, then consume better content. This is the time to audit what you allow into your mind: YouTube channels, newsletters, twitter accounts, and your network.
You have to do this on an ongoing basis. Maybe someone was a good follow, but then they became too political or they’ve started doing undisclosed shilling. You should keep trying to upgrade your information diet.
• Re-evaluating your systems. Do you organize your research? What's your profit taking and exit strategies? How does your portfolio change throughout a cycle?
This is a great time to re-visit and update anything.
Some things I’m avoiding:
• Leverage. I haven’t used it in years. I remember a few years ago staying up late at night watching my positions. I couldn’t go to sleep because I was scared of being liquidated.
I realized then that it wasn’t a good way to live. I closed my positions and haven’t touched leverage since.
Seeing what happened yesterday re-affirms that I'm ok avoiding leverage.
• Brain Rot. Your mind is a garden - don’t let weeds enter it. You can’t make fun of people for worshiping celebrities, but at the same breath stay on top of every Crypto beef and drama.
I'm spending a lot of effort reinforcing my attention span.
• Burning out. You’re going to have a ton of people telling you to “lock in” so you can earn generational wealth.
So you might feel compelled to spend 16 hours a day in the trenches, locked away from the world.
Don't. I’ve always viewed this as a marathon, and not a race. I’m all about going nice and steady.
I work around 10 hours a day. I’ll take the weekends off. I’m in bed by 10pm each night. I have no issues going on a vacation or trying to beat Yazuka: Infinite wealth.
True bull markets are exhausting - you don’t want to burn out and have no gas in the tank once a real bull market hits.
This is the weirdest cycle by far.
Everyone was bracing for a normal 4-year cycle. The two major ETFs would send us to Valhalla.
But instead, we got the biggest crash since FTX.
In times like this I think a lot about Stoicism philosophy. You can’t control outside events.
Focus on what you can control.
If this was useful and you think your friends would like it, help me out with a like or a retweet. Thanks!
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Attention all Plume Goons🫡
We're super excited to announce our $10M seed round led by @HaunVentures, with support from @galaxyhq, @Superscrypt, @SeliniCapital, @recvcx, @PortalVentures, @svangel, a_capital, and more!
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Attention all Plume Goons🫡
We're super excited to announce our $10M seed round led by @HaunVentures, with support from @galaxyhq, @Superscrypt, @SeliniCapital, @recvcx, @PortalVentures, @svangel, a_capital, and more!
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