Martin Lewis needs to be fired into the sun. The stupid micro-managing budgets of the past decade plus are totally not up to the gravity of the moment: there has been no meaningful growth since 2008, the welfare state is an unaffordable Ponzi scheme, and we can't build any infrastructure for less than eleventy billion pounds after decades of dither and judicial review.
The shambles of recruitment at certain clubs revealed in latest report by the always excellent @CIES_Football who have calculated the appreciation or decrease in player signings since they joined their clubs (excludes academy players).
The thing to remember: don't look at Budgets in isolation.
Taxes have been rising since 2021. The extra tax we're paying this year is the *cumulative* result of five successive Budgets, under three Chancellors.
This chart shows who's responsible & for how much.
The most depressing thing about this Budget is how little of it seems designed to make Britain more prosperous.
Where's the growth proposition, reform of planning, business formation, productivity or even lowering marginal tax on people trying to do something with their lives?
***The 2026 Budget - what to expect***
FISCAL HEADROOM
* John Healey is expected to lower the fiscal headroom from £23bn to around £15bn after economic hit caused by Iran war
* Ministers fear fresh military strikes by the US against Iran in wake of mid-terms will render OBR forecasts obsolete within days - worse is to come
ENERGY BILLS
*Healey will extend the warm homes discount for families on benefits, giving them another £100 off their energy bills
* But households not on benefits will bear the full brunt of the rise in January, when bills are due to go up by 27% to an average of £2,192
* Gas standing charges will be scrapped next year, saving £27 on a typical bill although those with larger homes who use more energy will pay more
* Healey will announce long-term plans to move more green levies off energy bills in a bid to reduce them 'for good
* He's also expected to announce long-term plans to remove the link between gas prices and electricity prices
FUEL DUTY
* The fuel duty freeze - which was due to end in January - will be extended to help with soaring prices at the pumps
BANKING TAX
* The biggest 'revenue raiser' in the Budget. Healey has been lobbied to restore the 8% surcharge on corporation tax, which would raise £2bn
ONLINE RETAILER TAX
* Online retail giants like Amazon, eBay and Temu will be made responsible for collecting tax from retailers selling on their platforms
FAMILY BUSINESSES
* Thousands of high-street shops, cafes, pubs and hairdressers will no longer have to pay business rates. Move funded with online retailer tax
MINIMUM WAGE
* The living wage, paid by older workers, and the national minimum wage, paid by those aged 18 to 21, will increase by 3.9%. Healey has chosen to stop the huge rises in the minimum wage amid concerns it was pricing young people out of work
PENSIONERS
* Healey will announce plans to shield 1million pensioners from paying income tax
* The state pension is due to rise by 3.9%, taking 1million people with low incomes above the income tax threshold
* Healey will introduce a new tax allowance for low-income pensioners
* He has also decided not to reduce the tax-free pensino lump sum
DEFENCE SPENDING
* Healey's immediate priority is filling £4.7bn hole in the defence investment plan. Cuts expected to departmental budgets elsewhere
* He is also expected to announce additional borrowing to fund government investment vehicles, which will then be used to fund defence
* But he WILL NOT set out a timeline for hitting the 3% defence spending target. That will come in the spending review next year
HELP TO BUY
* A revived Help to Buy scheme called Your First Home
* It will offer first time buyers a 20% equity loan to help them buy a new-build home, with a minimum deposit of just 2.5%
* The earnings cap will be set at £140,000 in London and £110,000 outside London
RECORD TAX LEVELS
* The OBR is expected to once again say that the tax burden will rise to another post-war record
* It's being driven by fiscal drag. Half a million people will be dragged into paying the higher rate
* The freeze - which is pencilled in for more than a decade - is effectively the single biggest tax rise in history
OBR forecasts
* They will highlight the huge uncertainty caused by the war in Iran. Ministers think it could make the OBR forecasts obsolete within weeks
* The tax revenues underpinning the Budget assume that Rosebank will be given the go-ahead, despite Cabinet splits on the issue
WHAT ISN'T IN IT
* Healey has rejected calls from colleagues to increase Capital Gains Tax amid concerns that doing so would damage growth and end up reducing tax revenues
* Major welfare reform will wait until after the Milburn review, which is coming after the Budget. It will require significant upfront investment in employment support
* Defence spending - the big decision has been deferred until the spending review, expected in Autumn 2027
The particularly punishing part is the withdrawal of the personal allowance between £100,000 and £125,140, which produces an effective 60% MITR, or 62% including employee NI.
Double your salary from £50k to £100k and your tax bill triples.
£50k → £10,480
£100k → £31,443 (3x)
£150k → £58,714 (5.6x)
Income tax and NI only.
I think the UK has fully moved over to the European mindset now. Being successful means earning £50k more than average and paying way more tax for it.
America is work hard, be smart, get rewarded. We've drifted to let's all be fair and split the winnings.
It doesn't matter how hard you work or how long you spent getting good at something. Past £100k most of every pay rise goes to the Treasury.
I get people DMing me telling me to leave because you won't get wealthy here. Honestly it's almost impossible now on a salary.
Double your salary from £50k to £100k and your tax bill triples.
£50k → £10,480
£100k → £31,443 (3x)
£150k → £58,714 (5.6x)
Income tax and NI only.
I think the UK has fully moved over to the European mindset now. Being successful means earning £50k more than average and paying way more tax for it.
America is work hard, be smart, get rewarded. We've drifted to let's all be fair and split the winnings.
It doesn't matter how hard you work or how long you spent getting good at something. Past £100k most of every pay rise goes to the Treasury.
I get people DMing me telling me to leave because you won't get wealthy here. Honestly it's almost impossible now on a salary.
I don't know what these people who had hung their hat on "email-job-at-big-company" as a career strategy are actually going to do now.
Fewer and fewer of these jobs left, and the perks have been brutally cut back on.
NEARLY 1 OUT OF 3 (60,000 EMPLOYEES) AT MICROSOFT BEING OFFERED VOLUNTARY TERMINATION
Emails should be going out any minute to those receiving the offer.
Absolutely insane.
📃 Read the latest statement and update from Chairman Lee Harding on our website regarding Steve Pitt, funds still owed to our club and potential investment
https://t.co/LY03PZkSyS
#IronArmy | Forged in 1898
This is a great way to tell the internet you’re thick as shit.
Leicester City breached spending rules during their 2013–14 Championship promotion campaign, which they won before going on to famously win the Premier League in 2016.
During the 2013–14 season, Nigel Pearson’s Leicester City won the Championship title with 102 points to secure promotion to the Premier League.
@joelhooks@mattpocockuk Everything old is new again. Feels like we’ve been talking about devs YOLOing into production and the business applying the brakes since the whole “DevOps” thing.