Keith Trauner

semi-retired investment pro and 40-yr analyst who focuses on valuation of specific companies - any market comments are observations, not predictions.

[Keith Trauner @kt_valueguy]

#fakenews The antidote for.fake news is millions of people on the Internet pointing out errors, not censorship by government or media.

[Keith Trauner @kt_valueguy]

@MarioNawfal How much dialog did his Syria have with the Syrian Druze community?

[Keith Trauner @kt_valueguy]

@BuzzPatterson

[Keith Trauner @kt_valueguy]

@Salansar1 Unifil allowed Hezbollah to build missile storage tunnels a few hundred yards from their observation posts. Unifil did exactly nothing to enforce UN resolutions preventing military operations south of the Litani or to curb Hezbollah terrorists from firing rockets at Israel.

[Keith Trauner @kt_valueguy]

@BillAckman It's much worse than that since the IRGC controls much of the commercial oil business and many other essential businesses in Iran - thus any civilian help for those businesses is simply strengthening the IRGC.

[Keith Trauner @kt_valueguy]

@EFischberger You know what they are most sensitive to? Exhibitions of power. Demands far beyond what seems reasonable that can be negotiated down. That's what earns respect in the Arab world. Weakness can be smelled a long ways off in the mideast.

[Keith Trauner @kt_valueguy]

It's hardly a one way street. Besides what Israeli industry has contributed to the world .. cell phones, mri machines, et al, it has provided a wealth of terror intelligence to US and a wealth of tech advances in military equip... See f35 for example. Much value from only democracy in Mideast.

[Keith Trauner @kt_valueguy]

@MarioNawfal Is Lebanon a vassal state of Iran? If not, why should what happens in Lebanon concern Iran at all? If it is, why doesn't everyone acknowledge that Iran controls Hezbollah and that ceasefire violations by Hezbollah are deliberately driven by Iran?

[John Spencer @SpencerGuard]

To be very clear: reality is very different from the rhetoric. The IDF takes extraordinary measures to mitigate civilian harm in Lebanon. In fact, as in Gaza, it employs more civilian harm mitigation measures than any military in past or current operations.

The IDF issues evacuation warnings through multiple channels including text messages, phone calls, voicemails, flyers, radio, television, and social media. It operates dedicated civilian harm mitigation cells, tracks civilian presence through drones, cell phone data, and other ISR capabilities, and uses rigorous targeting processes that include legal reviews and proportionality assessments for any planned strikes. Legal reviews at lowest tactical level, and with the ability (which happens often as well as command decisions not to strike based on all context) to override commander decisions, unlike any other military.

In southern Lebanon, these measures are particularly effective because civilians can move away from military objectives and active combat areas.

Even in Beirut, the IDF has repeatedly provided warnings identifying specific buildings that will be struck and when. The warnings have proven so reliable that Lebanese citizens and journalists have set up cameras in advance to record the strikes. When targeting Hezbollah senior leaders, command meetings, or other military objectives in densely populated areas such as Dahiyeh (the Hezbollah controlled neighborhood of Beirut), the IDF relies on precision-guided munitions, small diameter munition (warheads with less explosives), and other low collateral damage munitions, detailed intelligence, and other methods designed to limit collateral damage while achieving the legitimate military objective.

There is also no equivalency. Israel does not intentionally target civilians. Hezbollah is a U.S.-designated terrorist organization whose strategy includes deliberately attacking civilians. Hezbollah launches rockets, missiles, and drones at civilian communities in northern Israel (daily, despite any cease fires), targeting homes, schools, businesses, and civilian infrastructure.

One side conducts legal reviews, proportionality assessments, civilian warnings, and precision strikes against military objectives. The other is a international designated terrorist group that intentionally places military assets among civilians while deliberately targeting civilians.

[Keith Trauner @kt_valueguy]

@hahussain Not as rich as the Qataris, that's for sure.

[Keith Trauner @kt_valueguy]

@JoshYoung I'm still astonished at this and even more amazed that markets think it unimportant. Seems CEOs of XOM and CHV told him that the apocalypse was near and result: a total capitulation to Iran - unthinkable so long as it supports terror around the world & can block SOH.

[Keith Trauner @kt_valueguy]

@Scaramucci Not often I agree 100% with the Mooch, but this is good advice.

[Keith Trauner @kt_valueguy]

@MarioNawfal But you have no such expectations about Hezbollah, which operates at the direction of Iran? Not naive, just grossly biased against Israel.

[Keith Trauner @kt_valueguy]

@MarioNawfal Almost every Mario post about Israel casts that country as the aggressor. Hezbollah has been firing missiles at civilians in Israel for 2 decades. If Hezbollah stopped trying to kill Israel civilians, there would be no conflict at all with Lebanon.

[Keith Trauner @kt_valueguy]

@LauraLoomer @MarioNawfal Not to mention that almost every Mario post about Israel casts that country as the aggressor. Hezbollah has been firing missiles at civilians in Israel for 2 decades. If Hezbollah stopped trying to kill Israel civilians, there would be no conflict at all with Lebanon.

[Keith Trauner @kt_valueguy]

Allowing Iran to tie Israel's hands against Hezbollah would be the US accepting blackmail, plain and simple. It is Iran's aid and sponsorship of Hezbollah that has allowed tens of thousands of missiles to be fired from Lebanon to Israel, largely aimed at civilians. Stop the missiles and Israel leaves Lebanon alone.

[Keith Trauner @kt_valueguy]

@CliffordAsness Witkoff would appear to be the Neville Chamberlain of modern times.

[Keith Trauner @kt_valueguy]

@RealJamesWoods For those who want the best and simplest grammatical reference, it has to be Strunk & White. Required in my 6th grade English class. Favorite rule for clarity is a three word sentence: "Omit needless words." What a gem.

[Keith Trauner @kt_valueguy]

@BuzzPatterson One of my fave photos from an air show in FL a few years ago....

[Keith Trauner @kt_valueguy]

@Nexadmirer In point of fact, the surrenders were negotiated, however it was the unconditional aspect of the agreed upon meeting that ended the war. Typical wars end when one side is overwhelmingly defeated, not in bipartisan negotiation mid-conflict.

[Keith Trauner @kt_valueguy]

@awealthofcs People have no idea how exceptional this is. From roughly 1925 to 1982, the annual appreciation of the indexes was about 6% per annum. Better than bonds, but far from double digit.