Kevin Thorpe

Global Chief Economist @Cushwake. Award winner for most accurate economic forecast, and someone who pretends to know what the M2 Money Supply actually means.

[Kevin Thorpe @KThorpeView]

#COVID19 has elevated the narrative of the “resurging burbs.”
#CRE #economy #coronavirus #millennials @CushWake https://t.co/DSUtd1K1sb

[Kevin Thorpe @KThorpeView]

Here is a look at #COVID-19 trends along with models showing the #economic impact on property market fundamentals. @CushWake #CRE #economy #coronavirus https://t.co/XDKY7U1Swi

[Kevin Thorpe @KThorpeView]

While we don’t yet have Q1 #CRE data, we’re keeping a close eye on the supply pipeline and the potential impact on vacancy rates and leasing activity around the world. Read more >> https://t.co/b1dT8MsirD

[Kevin Thorpe @KThorpeView]

Governments around the world are turning increasingly aggressive to combat COVID-19 and cushion its economic impact, including monetary and fiscal policies. Read more >> https://t.co/3oIq6bjxRP

[Kevin Thorpe @KThorpeView]

While GDP forecasts are being revised downwards, most economist still assume that economic activity will accelerate in the second half, albeit with a more tempered rebound than previously thought. Read more >> https://t.co/Pi2thGPtK4

[Kevin Thorpe @KThorpeView]

Developments are extremely fluid, and uncertainty remains regarding how broadly the #coronavirus will spread and what the impact will be on public health, the #economy, #financial and #CRE markets. @CushWake

https://t.co/3uE1pf7WbG

[Kevin Thorpe @KThorpeView]

The core of the U.S. economy remains solid - see chart. Timing the market with perfect precision is often a fool's errand. Stay focused on the fundamentals. @Cushwake

[Kevin Thorpe @KThorpeView]

Would add that the prime working age cohort is still growing in NY. So many retirees are moving south, yes, but importantly for #CRE, NY’s workforce is still growing. @CushWake

[Rebecca Rockey @beckywflyhair]

Dont be fooled - this trend has existed for some time. #NYC relies on #international migrants for population growth. More cities than you'd think will over the next 10 years. @dcs_3 and I did a study in 2017 on this. #CRE #realestate #migration

https://t.co/CvmJoUxsS6

[Kevin Thorpe @KThorpeView]

Big sigh of relief. The latest consumer confidence numbers in the U.S. still strong. The virtuous cycle of higher confidence - boosts spending - boosts profits - boosts job growth - boosts demand for #CRE - continues. @CushWake

[Kevin Thorpe @KThorpeView]

Presented at FL #ICSC today. Got me thinking. Millennial's will soon start having lots of kids. What do you do when you have kids (i have 2). You do whatever you need to do to get to happy hour. Huge opportunities for retailers to target young parents. @Cushwake

[Kevin Thorpe @KThorpeView]

Jobless claims, a very underrated indicator for #CRE, continue to indicate that the US labor markets remain in excellent shape. The 4-week moving avg trending down again. If the economy was in real trouble, we would likely see it in this data first. Not seeing it. @Cushwake

[Kevin Thorpe @KThorpeView]

US GDP grew by 2.1% in Q2 – slower but not bad. The consumer is keeping the economy chugging along. Consumption accelerated by a very robust 4.3%. As the US consumer goes, so goes the US economy, and in many ways, the global economy and #CRE. @Cushwake.

[Kevin Thorpe @KThorpeView]

US retail sales up 3.4% y/y in June - great report - telling us U.S. economy still has plenty of juice. Those who argue Bricks & Mortar stores are dying could not be more wrong. Ecommerce has been around for 2 decades & stores still capture 91.5% of total spend. @Cushwake

[Kevin Thorpe @KThorpeView]

Fed Chairman Powell said the economic outlook hasn’t improved since officials signaled in June the possibility of lower rates, raising the possibility of a rate cut this month https://t.co/vSTn28c4jh via @WSJ

[Kevin Thorpe @KThorpeView]

Labor markets still going strong in the U.S. Job openings - a solid predictor for job growth & demand for #CRE space - hovering at record highs. The quit rate also remains elevated – people don’t quit their jobs unless there are lots of opportunities. Still good. @Cushwake

[Kevin Thorpe @KThorpeView]

US consumer confidence #’s declined in June. Lots of bleak headlines about it but index remains at a high level consistent with healthy consumer spend & demand for #CRE space. US economy has slowed but is fine and now more likely to get a boost from the Fed. @cushwake

[Kevin Thorpe @KThorpeView]

Consumer confidence (CCI) is one of the most important indicators to watch right now. Consumer spend accounts for 65-70% of GDP. If consumers feel good, US economy & #CRE will be fine. Next release 6/25. Watching this one like a hawk. Will report back. @Cushwake

[Kevin Thorpe @KThorpeView]

Consumer confidence (CCI) is one of the most important indicators to watch right now. Consumer spend accounts for 65-70% of GDP. If consumers feel good, US economy & #CRE will be fine. Next release 6/25. Watching this one like a hawk. Will report back. @Cushwake

[Kevin Thorpe @KThorpeView]

U.S. retail sales much stronger than expected in May & big upward revision to April - good news for the US expansion and for #CRE. Strong correlation between consumer spend and demand for space. Data like this will make the Fed reluctant to cut rates in July. @Cushwake

[Kevin Thorpe @KThorpeView]

Biggest takeaway: global slowdowns are uncomfortable, yes, but they are also necessary, and they often yield benefits to commercial real estate. @CushWake

[Rebecca Rockey @beckywflyhair]

Still good, just not 'as' good. Check out our view on the global #outlook and what that means for #CRE. #property #markets #RealEstate #Forecast @CushWake @CushWakeUS @KThorpeView

https://t.co/fjVVF7xHzd

[Kevin Thorpe @KThorpeView]

Reporting back: The US economy has clearly downshifted but still expanding. The latest data on manufacturing, trade, job growth - all slower. Nothing here to dramatically alter #CRE fundamentals yet which are still healthy but keep an eye on what the Fed does next. @cushwake

[Kevin Thorpe @KThorpeView]

We will learn a lot about the state of the US economy this week: Manufacturing data today, vehicle sales data tues, trade data on thurs, and jobs data on Friday. The Fed also making a number of speeches. Will try to make sense of it and report back end of week. @Cushwake