Gumpert

Stocks I'm holding and random thoughts, not investment advice or recommendations. Gumpert (profile pic) is a pointador rescue from the south.

[Gumpert @kubulldogs]

$ASTS it's really pretty easy...

[Gumpert @kubulldogs]

$ASTS there are plenty of things to complain about with AST, and while dilution sucks it's not even close to being important at this time.
All that matters is starting service to free ourselves of the basket.
Im guessing he's short and starting to get nervous.

[Spy Before You Buy @Spybef0rey0ubuy]

THIS IS NOT NORMAL DILUTION 👀

$ASTS share count has exploded.

2021: 8.6M
2022: 54M
2023: 82M
2024: 155M
2025: 256M

That’s a 2,900% increase in 5 years.

For context:

Growth tech median: 2.3% annual net dilution

ASTS isn’t just above the benchmark.

It’s in a completely different universe.

The company may be building something massive…

But how much of that growth actually belongs to existing shareholders?

[Gumpert @kubulldogs]

@scott_m_powell You misspelled "Director of Satellite Completion" haha.
With SpaceX letting the pad focus only on customers now we need to get birds out the door.

[Gumpert @kubulldogs]

$ASTS
Per the drag data... BB11 is probably just fine.
The rest of these are legit concerns.

[Stuart Taylor @LuckyStuey]

$ASTS what's not said in this post is more important than what is said:

- 53 days since the BB11 shipment to BB14 completion and the rest of batch "not far behind" = decelerating cadence.
- No launch date or vehicle announcement.
- BB11 status omitted entirely.

[Gumpert @kubulldogs]

$ASTS
Neutral to negative update
BB11 (?)
BB12-13 (+)
Production starts ~6 month (+)
Production finishes <1 month worse than feared (--)
No launch dates (-)
Dang...

[AST SpaceMobile @AST_SpaceMobile]

BlueBirds 12 and 13 are now fully deployed.

Each 2,400-square-foot communications array is part of a platform built to address far more than mobile connectivity. From cellular broadband to AI computing and advanced government applications,  such as space-based radar capabilities.

Production of BlueBird 14 is completed, while BlueBirds 15 and 16 are nearing completion and are not far behind as we move towards launch, with production advancing through BlueBird 48.

A growing constellation. An expanding range of applications. A market that reaches across commercial and government communications infrastructure worldwide. 🇺🇸📶🌎📱

Built in Texas. Broadband from space. Execution at scale.

#ASTSpaceMobile #Broadband #ConnectingtheUnconnected #BlueBirds

[Gumpert @kubulldogs]

$ASTS
This is way more interesting than anything right now as we trade with the basket...
What's Citadel up to with the basket?

[Anp🅰️nman @spacanpanman]

$ASTS $RKLB $SPCX: Citadel has been the #1 advertised trader of all major space stocks since the collapse of SALP. Every single day - and orders of magnitude higher than retail (Virtu) or any other broker.

Prior to July 30th when SALP collapsed, they were never active in the sector.

[Gumpert @kubulldogs]

$ASTS
Pass it on

[Peter LINDM🅰️RK @peterlindmark]

$ASTS 2degrees (NZ):

Today, we celebrate the official opening of the 2degrees Marton Satellite Ground Station – one of the first commercial AST SpaceMobile ground stations in the world.

This marks amajor step toward us offering 2degrees satellite connectivity.

Behind this milestone is significant work from our teams and partners. We’ve invested in locally supported, in-country infrastructure at Marton and integrated it with the global AST SpaceMobile network and our own.

We have successfully made voice calls, video calls, and sent SMS and used data over the service, and are excited about what this will enable for our customers.

We’re preparing for a future where customers can move easily between terrestrial and satellite networks - extending connectivity to remote roads, farms, backcountry, communities and workers where conventional infrastructure has been difficult or uneconomic to deploy.

We’re proud to be among the early movers globally - because it’s only fair that more Kiwis can stay connected, wherever they are.

[Gumpert @kubulldogs]

@JohnCIsMe @Reformed_Trader Yeah I actually expect a basket rally after labor day...

[Gumpert @kubulldogs]

@JohnCIsMe @Reformed_Trader Until they have enough revenue to break even or at least get close they'll probably be stuck with the basket.
If they start executing better they'll be at say a 5 buck premium to $RKLB like they used to instead of a discount like they are now.
$ASTS

[Gumpert @kubulldogs]

@Reformed_Trader Yeah I don't expect the stock to break free of the basket, but the company has been mentioning being at or close to 6/month... time to prove it.

[Gumpert @kubulldogs]

$ASTS
Put up or shut up time for the company...
How many are you really making a month?
Hoping it's good, but expecting 1.5 birds a month to continue.

[Anp🅰️nman @spacanpanman]

$ASTS: After doing a bit more digging, it appears that SpaceX VP of Launch Kiko Dontchev's announcement that Falcon-9 won't be launching any more Starlink missions out of Cape Canaveral was a surprise to the market.

Falcon-9 launches out of the Cape Canaveral will now be solely focused on commercial cargo as SpaceX moves F9 Starlink missions to Vandenberg.

This implies that much more F9 capacity out of Florida has been freed up for commercial launch, if demand is there 👀

[Gumpert @kubulldogs]

$ASTS

[Mike @CytoplasmicANA]

“We saw this in the Grain transaction where we incentivized Grain to run a private process to see if they could light up the band for D2D. This is the 800 MHz. Spectrum that had been lying fallow for many many years, 14 MHz of contiguous, nationwide low band spectrum. If that spectrum can be lit up soon, that will be a huge game changer.

And one of the ways to do that is with our emphasis on buildout. we are demanding that companies that have the preferences to use federally licensed spectrum put it to use for the American people faster.”

-Arpan Sura, Senior counsel to Brandon Carr

Possibly a slip, but this sure sounds like the FCC is actively driving this spectrum to the only D2D provider that can quickly use low band. $ASTS

https://t.co/OSPelcNID4

[Gumpert @kubulldogs]

Gotta be $DB

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Treasury Secretary Bessent says he expects a major financial institution to be sanctioned this week.

[Gumpert @kubulldogs]

@Jimmybins1 Haha it should be up on the bulletin board.
It's that simple:
Debt and or dilution = down
45 satellites operating in the sky = up
Anything else = follow basket of trash algo (high momentum pre major revenue stocks)
$ASTS

[Gumpert @kubulldogs]

$ASTS it's really pretty easy...

[Gumpert @kubulldogs]

@FREESPEECH1017 I'm assuming they threw a boat load of cash at SpaceX from that offering.
Probably over paying close to $100M a launch to get standby rides.
They've said they booked rides in the filing, and Falcon9 is the only one that can fly more.
No other answers.

[Gumpert @kubulldogs]

$ASTS
7 Falcon 9's (3) on standby list
1 Vulcan (5) if it gets flying again
1 BONG (4) if it gets flying again
By next April to get 43 (45ish) by 'early 2027' (stretching early)

[Gumpert @kubulldogs]

@Kingpaca129 Not sure what you're getting at here.
Most of the basket kinda drifted today AST had the bid slammed from bell to bell... something was different with this one.

[Gumpert @kubulldogs]

$ASTS
Felt like someone's front running a debt or equity or both offering today...

[Gumpert @kubulldogs]

$ASTS
@AST_SpaceMobile
Any updates?

[iPilot🅰️ @OmniAeronautica]

$ASTS SCOTT WISNIEWSKI ON U.S. GOVERNMENT AWARDS
Q2 2026 EARNINGS CALL

“[𝑊𝑒] 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑒𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑑 𝑡ℎ𝑟𝑒𝑒 𝑛𝑒𝑤 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑡 𝑎𝑤𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑠.”

“𝑊𝑒 𝑝𝑙𝑎𝑛 𝑡𝑜 𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑘 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑢𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑠𝑒 𝑎𝑤𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑠 𝑝𝑢𝑏𝑙𝑖𝑐𝑙𝑦 𝑠𝑜𝑜𝑛.”

“𝐺𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑛𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑟𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑢𝑒, 𝑤𝑒 ℎ𝑜𝑝𝑒, 𝑤𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑙𝑦 𝑒𝑥𝑐𝑒𝑒𝑑 𝑦𝑜𝑢𝑟 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟.”

“𝑊𝑒’𝑙𝑙 ℎ𝑎𝑣𝑒 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑛𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑛𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑚 𝑜𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡.”

“𝑊𝑒 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑡𝑜 𝑠𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑒 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑛𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑚 𝑚𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑠𝑖𝑔𝑛𝑖𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑛𝑡𝑙𝑦.”

“𝑇ℎ𝑖𝑠 𝑜𝑝𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑖𝑠 𝑔𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑡𝑜 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑡 𝑠𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑢𝑝 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑜 𝑎 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑡𝑖𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑜𝑛-𝑑𝑜𝑙𝑙𝑎𝑟-𝑎-𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑜𝑝𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑖𝑛 2027.”

Scott Wisniewski
President & Chief Strategy Officer
AST SpaceMobile
Q2 2026 earnings call, August 10, 2026

[Gumpert @kubulldogs]

$ASTS
Everyone is focused on 14-16 which were "imminent" weeks ago.
But AST also said future launches would be announced 2 months ahead of time.
That means 17+ arent going up until after Halloween...
They probably won't hit 20 BB2's (RIP #7), in the air by EOY.