Kumo Wizard

[Kumo Wizard @Kumowizard]

@NoLimitGains Now this one is a professional explanation and a proper statement! 👏👏👏

[Kumo Wizard @Kumowizard]

@NoLimitGains What a stupid statement. He already is, regardless of the IPO. He alteady owns the company.

[Kumo Wizard @Kumowizard]

@CharityHedge https://t.co/NiNe13q2mQ https://t.co/NiNe13q2mQ

[Kumo Wizard @Kumowizard]

@JeffWeniger @themarketsniper Mania

[Kumo Wizard @Kumowizard]

@CharityHedge The problem with the 13 % implied yield is if Saylor can’t raise cash to pay the dividend and runs towards bankruptcy. It is a ponzi scheme, which ultimately will collapse. Imho trade no.2. Is the game. Sell the spread between the two sht papers

[Kumo Wizard @Kumowizard]

@NoLimitGains Or tells you to get the fck out of fugazi stocks…

[Kumo Wizard @Kumowizard]

@CharityHedge It also means that the cash liquid giants reverse from stock buybacks to stock placements. Demand down and supply up, plus increasing race in capital spending with highly uncertain returns on capex.

[Kumo Wizard @Kumowizard]

@NoLimitGains Yes. Currency debasement is happening.

[Kumo Wizard @Kumowizard]

@educofin @BullTheoryio He is not really predicting anything to be honest. I read his full newsletter, bot justbthe headline summary in the topic. He is analyzing the depth and the risks of the possible AI spending scam in details. And he has never been a one sided bear, he always hold longs too.

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

🚨 MICHAEL BURRY JUST WARNED THE ENTIRE AI BOOM MAY BE BUILT ON TEMPORARY DEMAND.

He published a post today calling Nvidia "the North Star, Orion, the whole Milky Way" and explaining why that makes it the most dangerous stock in the market right now.

His core argument is:

Nvidia is selling into a concentrated group of buyers Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta who are all racing to buy chips not because they need them for real revenue generating products right now, but because they are in a training and benchmarking phase that will not last forever.

Hyperscalers currently account for approximately 50% of all Nvidia data center revenue.

When the training phase ends and these companies shift from building AI to deploying it, the demand profile changes completely.

Burry calls this the "bullwhip effect." When the buyers at the end of a supply chain over order because they are afraid of missing out, the distortion amplifies all the way back through the chain.

Nvidia sees record demand.

Nvidia locks in massive custom supply commitments. Data center financing expands to accommodate the buildout. Everyone bets the demand is permanent.

Nvidia just reported $81.6 billion in quarterly revenue, up 85% year over year. Data center revenue alone was $75.2 billion, up 92%. The numbers are real but the question Burry is asking is whether the demand behind those numbers is structural or temporary.

He calls it the "bezzle." A term coined by economist John Kenneth Galbraith to describe the gap between what people think they own and what actually exists.

In a bezzle, the money feels real, the assets feel real, and everything looks fine until the moment it does not.

Historically the semiconductor industry is highly cyclical.

The persistent fear among analysts is that the current build out phase of AI will eventually lead to oversupply of computing power and when that happens the whiplash into Nvidia's revenue could be severe.

Burry has been wrong on timing before. He called the market a sell in 2023 and it went up 131% since then.

But the 2008 mortgage crisis he predicted also looked like a timing mistake for two years before it was not.

The difference this time is that he is not just making a macro call. He is pointing to a specific mechanism, concentrated buyers, a temporary demand phase, and custom supply commitments that create obligations on both sides and saying the math only works until the training phase ends.

Nvidia trades at 33 times forward earnings on $81 billion in quarterly revenue.

If hyperscaler capex slows even 20%, that math changes very fast.

[Kumo Wizard @Kumowizard]

@CharityHedge As an old meme says: “Hawk tuah…”

[Kumo Wizard @Kumowizard]

@Barchart They didn’t have much anyway

[Kumo Wizard @Kumowizard]

@NoLimitGains So what’s the conclusion here?

[Kumo Wizard @Kumowizard]

@NoLimitGains Only problem is that all three charts are in a major macro bearish trend.

[Kumo Wizard @Kumowizard]

@themarketsniper 👏👏👏

[Kumo Wizard @Kumowizard]

@Fxhedgers @themarketsniper What could go wrong here with rates blowing up?

[Kumo Wizard @Kumowizard]

@themarketsniper God, how on Earth would the US economy be able to sustain a 6 %+ 30y yield? That automatically triggers recession and stock market meltdown

[Kumo Wizard @Kumowizard]

@BullTheoryio @themarketsniper No problem! AI and semiconductors mania will solve it all! Inflation? No problem at all… people can eat NVDA Chips! And why to trouble with spending, when you have amazing AI infrastructure?

[Kumo Wizard @Kumowizard]

@NoLimitGains Fckn ponzi king

[Kumo Wizard @Kumowizard]

@WallStreetApes @themarketsniper Nothing new here. It’s been obvious since iPhone4