Retail thinks stock selection is 95% of the game. Balyasny: it's one-third.
Dmitry Balyasny, co-founder & CIO of Balyasny Asset Management.
Dmitry Balyasny explains:
"You get paid for stock selection. But selection, timing, risk management hose is one-third of that."
"People focus on selection as 95%. It's one-third."
"In a hedge fund, the reason you get paid a lot is you get the other two-thirds right consistently."
"At some point you're right on Amazon, at some point you're wrong. That's the retail world."
"In the institutional world, you're paid for making money consistently."
"You gotta get the timing and money management right, or the security selection doesn't really matter."
This 2010 interview with Mark Zuckerberg will teach you more about lying without lying than any media training - any Harvard case study - or 10 years in PR
38 minutes - two reporters pressed a 26-year-old CEO on privacy until he sweated through his clothes on stage.
"there have been misperceptions that we're trying to make all information open. that's completely false."
eight years later he was in front of Congress and the FTC fined Facebook $5 billion over privacy.
bookmark & watch ↓
Pershing Square $PS announced earnings this evening in advance of our call tomorrow at 9am ET and our Spaces on @X which will follow the call.
Please read our letter in advance of the call which explains the quarter and provides updates on the portfolio and six new positions in $NFLX, $V, $MA, $ICE, $ALC, and $SPGI
https://t.co/Bcb1FgjjgE
Warren Buffett saved his $700M investment and rescued $9B Salomon Brothers in 4 hours - by firing the CEO and personally calling the US Treasury
this is the only time Warren Buffett ever sat before Congress - under oath
"the only time in my life I had trouble sleeping" - their traders rigged the Treasury market - the CEO hid it for 4 months
payphone in Reno - found out his $700M was burning - flew to New York - by Monday he was CEO
their trader bought 94% of a Treasury auction -limit was 35% - the CEO knew for 4 months and said nothing - Buffett fired him the day he walked in
"lose money - I will be understanding - lose a shred of reputation - I will be ruthless "
saved 8,000 jobs in one weekend and his investment - still files his own taxes since age 13
bookmark & watch today ↓
Palantir's CEO just exposed Sam Altman and Dario Amodei for robbing every Fortune 500 company.
Within two minutes, Alex Karp took the entire frontier AI industry apart on national television.
His exact words:
"Every single enterprise in this country, these people are LIVID. They are paying for tokens that create no value. These people are stealing the weights and alpha of my business."
He literally said the entire frontier AI business model is intellectual property extraction dressed up as a subscription.
Then he also destroyed the pricing model with a single question that Silicon Valley still refuses to answer:
"If it was so valuable, let's say I can make you $1 billion tomorrow. Wouldn't I say I'll make you $1 billion and I want 30 percent? Why are they charging for tokens if it's so valuable?"
That question breaks the industry.
If OpenAI and Anthropic's models truly delivered the productivity gains the labs claim, they would take equity or a share of the profit they generate. They would not sell access by the million tokens.
Token pricing is itself the CONFESSION that the product cannot produce reliable value at scale. If it did, they would price for the value. But they price for the compute because that is what they are actually selling.
Karp went even further...
He called the entire arrangement "a wealth tax that does not help the poor. It just punishes."
American businesses are transferring the alpha of their operations, meaning the workflows, the customer data, the strategy memos, the internal models that make them competitive, directly into the training pipelines of a handful of Silicon Valley labs. Once those labs retrain, the customer's own edge becomes the next enterprise product sold back to their competitors.
And the part the AI industry does not want anyone thinking about:
Every enterprise running its confidential documents, its customer conversations, and its financial models through a frontier model is potentially teaching that model HOW to replace them.
The vendor collects the token fee AND the compounding intelligence about that customer's business. That is the mechanism. And that is why Karp used the word "stealing."
He claims this is why every executive he meets is furious in private and silent in public. Nobody wants to be the CEO who called out the labs and then discovered their next competitor was built on their own leaked workflows.
The entire AI industry has been priced for perfection on one assumption:
That frontier labs produce durable, defensible value that justifies infinite compute spend.
But Karp just told us that the customers do not believe that assumption anymore. They believe they are being taxed without benefit, watched without consent, and copied without recourse.
The moment enterprises stop believing, the whole valuation stack shakes.
🚨NEW EP with @BeckyQuick:
“Invest early, do it often, & let it ride, and don't worry about what's happening. To me, our job at @CNBC is to educate people about what happens when you have the law of compound interest working for you.”
What a joy to catch up with my dear friend Becky Quick on the latest episode of The Master Investor Podcast – anchor of @SquawkCNBC & a true titan of business journalism. We covered US-Iran peace deal; @SpaceX IPO; lessons from Buffett; @ElonMusk vs Warren Buffett; the beauty of the purity of markets; & her inspirational #CNBCCures.
WHAT IS BUFFETT’S GENIUS?: “Patience. He & Charlie Munger have repeatedly said one of the things they're best at doing is nothing. There are a lot of people who feel like they have to act because the markets are going up & up & they have FOMO. Warren’s never had FOMO.”
MUSK v BUFFETT: “Charlie Munger & Warren Buffet have both told me individually they might not buy the stock [SpaceX] but they would never bet against Elon Musk because it is a pretty risky proposition to do so.”
TRUMP IRAN DEAL: “I don't know that he is nearly as focused on the midterms as most of the other elected officials in the Republican party…I think he's probably more focused on getting things done & I think he sees Iran as a particular issue that he would like to be able to say that he's brought peace there or at least cleared Iran from having the ability to have nuclear weapons. I think he probably takes that more seriously than winning the midterms.”
CNBC CURES: “The idea that you're just trying to figure this out & nobody understands what you're going through. And you start to realise that if you can do something to help you should. And that was the genesis of CNBC Cures to figure out how do we connect some of these groups so that they can learn from each other and then use CNBC's platform to make sure we're getting in front of the legislators, the regulators and the investors.”
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
3:00 US-Iran peace deal
5:57 Iran over Mid-Terms for Trump
8:09 Buffett - don’t bet against Elon Musk
9:45 Déjà vu of late 1990s?
12:40 CNBC’s role – financial education
16:50 21 Years of Squawk Box
20:07 Purity of the markets
22:16 Lessons from Warren Buffett
26:05 Buffett’s secret – patience
30:07 CNBC Cures
40:20 Loneliness of rare disease
44:48 Investing, career and life advice