kyrier

Exploring the decentralized future. Believer in the power of community-driven solutions.

[kyrier @kyrier_]

@sassal0x I can sell you my ETH with huge discount 5k/ETH

[kyrier @kyrier_]

@sassal0x Not even funny anymore

[Santiago @svpino]

Many years later, the Logitech MX Keys is the best keyboard ever. No contest.

[kyrier @kyrier_]

@blknoiz06 Down only

[Jameson Lopp @lopp]

You're welcome.

[kyrier @kyrier_]

Anyone fixating on a multi-year slump for $ETH or $SOL should recall how quickly these alts have rebounded in the past. Bearish or not, history doesn’t always repeat in crypto

[kyrier @kyrier_]

#Bitcoin’s 14-day RSI suggests a potential short-term rebound, yet broader macro signals remain mixed. Stay vigilant in this volatile climate

[kyrier @kyrier_]

Recap of the past 10 days :

- Slow grind up on the whole market, completely mirroring the S&P500 price action. $BTC at $87k

- Saylor issued a new preferred stock called $STRF, and is back on the BTC bid side. $GME also announced a BTC treasury strategy, and a $1.3bn convertible bond.

- BSC season goes on with a lot of coins listed on Binance and pumping on-chain, $CAKE benefitted from it with a +60% pump

- HyperLiquid got 'exploited' on a JELLYJELLY contract manipulation but settled the trade without taking losses. -15% for $HYPE

- $FARTCOIN is the strongest meme by far, went up 3x in 3 weeks. Other memes are strong too : SPX, GIGA, BONK.

- PvP environment with short squeezes : $MAVIA $AUCTION $JELLYJELLY

- $BERA PoL went live, and the coin is up +35% in a week. Other new strong coins include $IP and $LAYER

- Stablecoin narrative is heating up but unclear how to play it in the liquid market

[kyrier @kyrier_]

Hyperliquid

The sentiment has returned to positive values. In addition, the price has started to recover after a short correction. Overall, the community has taken it very positively, thanks to the founder and the HL team, who fixed all the problems in the shortest time.

Why $HYPE can expect strong growth in the future?

• DEX leader: Hyperliquid dominates the perps market due to its high speed and full on-chain infrastructure.
• Native L1 network: The native network provides instant transactions and a decentralized order book.
• Deflationary tokenomics: Buybacks and burns from fees create constant upward pressure on the price of HYPE.
• Community-oriented: No VC, tokens are distributed among users, strengthening the commitment to the platform.
• HyperEVM and DeFi expansion: Integration with the EVM opens up new possibilities for decentralized applications and liquidity.
• Perp volume is growing and I think it will continue to do so as more and more people choose DEX over CEX.

[Barchart @Barchart]

BREAKING 🚨: Stock Market

S&P 500 falls below its 200D moving average for the first time since November 2023 👀

[kyrier @kyrier_]

Recent crypto narratives/events :

- Bybit got hacked for $1.5bn $ETH on Feb 21, which marked the beginning of a one-week downtrend on $BTC bringing it from nearly $100k to sub $80k, alongside a red stock market.

- Altcoins have been resisting better on that dump, there was a delayed capitulation on BTC while alts had already sold off earlier (Feb 3)

- $BTC quickly bounced from $78k to $84k on Friday. A bullish announcement about a US crypto reserve by Trump yesterday catapulted it to $95k at the top. $ADA $XRP $SOL have been mentioned to be included on the reserve, which lead to a giga pump for them.

- Strongest coins over 10 days have been the new ones : $IP $KAITO $BERA $LAYER

- Other pockets of strength among alts : $LTC $MKR $TIA $TNSR $GRASS

- $SOL bottomed at $125 right before its unlocks, now back to $160
- $HYPE underperformed after the HyperEVM launch

[kyrier @kyrier_]

Funny how all 'majors' short-term topped at round numbers :

$BTC - $95k
$ETH - $2500
$SOL - $180
$XRP - $3

[kyrier @kyrier_]

The selling pressure is mostly concentrated on $BTC, which is both the last asset to capitulate in crypto, and the asset that is the most likely to be sold by tradfi when equities sell off

[kyrier @kyrier_]

In February 2024, $BTC pumped super hard, +43% in a month.

And as crazy as it sounds, $ETH outperformed it that month.

The good ol' times.

[kyrier @kyrier_]

Quick thoughts on MSTR and BTC :

- Q1 is for levering up the balance sheet, and Saylor has begun to do it with this $2bn convertible bond (CB)

- When he raises money through converts, he immediately buys BTC with the proceeds, he does not keep it in cash to time his entries. So any CB offering announcement means equal amount of buying pressure

- The MSTR premium to NAV as well as MSTR volatility have been going down since November. The more they go down, the less demand there will be for convertible bonds (ie less buying pressure for BTC)

- Raising $2bn in a few days is a lot, I think there is definitely still a large demand for MSTR convertible bonds, but it is unclear how Saylor will navigate between 'raising more money asap to lever up' and 'only raising at very attractive terms'

- My personal opinion is that we're still seeing at least $6bn more buying pressure in Q1 from MSTR

- Saylor cost basis is an irrelevant metric

- He is absolutely *not* taking a lot of risks with his current leverage ratios

- ETFs have been outflowing, the SPX had a huge red candle on Friday and the largest crypto hack ever happened last week, so I am not sure if the '$2bn buying pressure and price did not move' is the correct framing but it's something to keep in mind anyway

[kyrier @kyrier_]

Just one thing to remember before aping the YE coin like a donkey ⤵️

How long did the pump last for each of these coins :

$TRUMP - lasted 1d 9h
$MELANIA - lasted 10h
$CAR - lasted 3h
$LIBRA - lasted 1h

[kyrier @kyrier_]

- $BTC chopping in the $95k-$98k range. Saylor announced a $2bn convertible bond.

- $LIBRA fiasco on Solana : $1bn FDV -> $4.5bn FDV in 45 minutes before down only. Pure extraction going on in the trenches. Sol ecosystem sentiment down, $SOL dumped -20%

- BSC szn : sparked by $TST pump. $CAKE and $BNB pumped. $BROCCOLI saga is pure PvP with 3 coins still fighting to win.

- $S (ex-FTM) is one of the strongest large caps. Main DEX on Sonic Network $SHADOW is up 10x

- $LTC consistently outperforming the market, most likely coin to have an ETF next

- New alt L1s $BERA and $IP that dumped post-launch are now pumping

- AI coins still the worst-performing category

[kyrier @kyrier_]

$LTC - ETF coming and v likely, no sellers left and just consistently strong

$LDO - first time that LDO is printing a very nice HTF rounded bottom vs the altcoin market + staking ETF narrative

$BERA - same thesis as when it launched, seems undervalued for an alt L1 with that mindshare + consistent higher lows

$S - giga strong since it bottomed, basically I can feel some momentum in the eco

$TNSR - strong since the Feb 2 dump, is a proxy for VectorFun which prints fees + picks & shovels for memecoins

$MKR - sellers exhausted, still -70% from top while stablecoin supply is growing, benefits from the 'return to fundamentals' narrative

[kyrier @kyrier_]

AI Narrative

$ARC

$ARC aims to be the leading platform for AI agents, with exclusivity and closed access that sets its launchpad apart from other projects mass-producing low-quality bots.

Joshua Deuk covered $ARC last week and is back with another detailed thesis on its potential. He believes $ARC could be the next $1B AI ecosystem token, drawing parallels to Solana’s $VIRTUALS. In a market saturated with AI tokens that are down 90% from their highs, $ARC stands out by prioritizing quality over quantity — a critical factor for survival and growth.

The $ARC team, led by Tachi, has learned from previous cycles and developed the Handshake Program to ensure controlled, high-quality launches for projects that align with their vision.
$ARC has the potential to become a key token in the ecosystem, avoiding the pitfalls that have plagued other AI tokens like $ELIZA and $AI16Z.

The growing attention on $ARC is also supported by the rising sentiment and attention, reflecting its strong performance in recent days.

$AIXBT

Despite a 40% drop this month, $AIXBT remains our most direct contributor to the Virtuals ecosystem, although its presence now extends well beyond Virtuals itself. Volatility appears to be stabilizing, with a potential bottom forming around the $200M market cap.

Sentiment, which turned negative during the recent downtrend, is now rebounding, which could indicate a good opportunity to start accumulating $AIXBT at current prices.

$AIXBT is one of the few AI agent tokens that has built a solid moat and following with a functional product. Over the last 30 days, he has become the second most-watched KOL after Vitalik. In a volatile market, it is important to be selective, and we believe $AIXBT is a clear leader in its category.

[kyrier @kyrier_]

Best Idea Longs Weekly Update

This week’s list includes: $SOL, $BNB, $AAVE, $FLUID, $VELO, $TAO, $WLD, $GRASS, $ARC, and $AIXBT.
Compared to last week, we’ve removed $MNT and added $BNB, $VELO, and $GRASS.

The top performer this week was $ARC, up 141% from last week’s low. Every other token on the list also outperformed $BTC, which has been mostly flat over the past seven days, with gains ranging from 7% to 42%.

DeFi: $AAVE, $FLUID, and $VELO

$AAVE

$AAVE continues to be our top pick for DeFi investing. Despite a 30% drop from its recent high, $AAVE is holding at $240, which previously acted as multi-month resistance. With price stabilizing at this support and sentiment improving, this could be a good time to add exposure.

In further confirmation of Aave’s leadership position in DeFi, the Ethereum Foundation recently funneled a significant portion of its liquidity into the protocol. Of the $45,000 in $ETH, approximately $30,800 in $ETH – worth approximately $82.4M – was funneled into Aave Prime and Aave Core.

$FLUID

Since being added to the list last week, $FLUID has shown relative strength to the broader market and is now approaching the $7 level, up nearly 50% from its February 3 lows. Increased attention and improved sentiment are further supporting its momentum.

In addition to capturing 10% of the market and becoming the fastest protocol to reach $10B in trading volume on Ethereum just three months after launch, $FLUID has also demonstrated the best price performance in the lending space over the past 180 days.

With a low MC, strong fundamentals, and adoption, we believe $FLUID is the best value option in terms of R/R ratio and upside potential.

$VELO

$VELO has recently outperformed $AERO, up 14% over the past week compared to $AERO’s 1% decline. We believe $VELO offers a more attractive stake in the Superchain OP, which directly competes with Unichain.

With an MC of $68M, $VELO also has significant upside potential – nearly 10x the valuation of $AERO and 87x the valuation of $UNI – providing significant room for growth.

Velodrome is already the leading DEX by volume on L2s like Incochain, Lisk, Mode Network, and Optimism Mainnet.

AI Narrative Infrastructure

$TAO

The most significant upgrade in $TAO history was launched on February 14th, while Dynamic TAO has been in development and implementation for over a year.

Despite the high anticipation for the upgrade, there has been no significant increase in sentiment or price. However, the upgrade is likely to attract more attention from traders and investors in the future.

$GRASS

$GRASS was added to the list this week after posting one of the strongest recoveries since the February 3rd low, gaining 45% over the past week, while still trading more than 50% below its previous high of $4.

While $GRASS has been performing well in price action, sentiment and attention levels have remained flat over the past few weeks. The current divergence between $GRASS price action and stagnant sentiment represents a potential opportunity for accumulation, with the expectation that sustained momentum will eventually be supported by rising sentiment and attention.

It is also worth remembering that $GRASS is one of the few protocols with a real working use case.

Notably, on February 13, $GRASS set a new network record by collecting over 500,000 GB of data in a single day, highlighting its ability to handle the massive amounts of data needed to train advanced AI models.

Continued below👇