malen

"We're all apprentices in a craft where no one becomes a master" Hemingway

[malen @l_malen]

Anatomy of success in trading and in poker : a combination of key skills and behavior. Among other: " excellent record keeping habits", "on going learning & knowledge development", " developing a strategy & refining it" and judging "success based on decisions, not on results".

[malen @l_malen]

#Cocoa made it back

-twitt on March 3 rd was year low

[malen @l_malen]

🧐 #CCK26
-It's been a while since cocoa price has gained over 4% in a day (on Monday CCK26 up 4.6% )

-Price has now reached back to a multi year price range prior to the historic take off - and somewhat oversold on monthly-weekly chart
-🧐 a break > 3100-3186 🗝️ then 3315

[malen @l_malen]

#Worldcup⚽️
France vs Spain on Bastille day 💙🤍❤️

This is gold play ;-) (a 1,2,3 ) set up
️

[malen @l_malen]

#KCU26 Lots of volatility in the coffee market lately

- Coiling market ➡️ be prepared for a break out trade👇

[malen @l_malen]

France vs Spain
How to have a debate with one self -how confusing euh?
https://t.co/lXcQrt1Rrx

[malen @l_malen]

#Cocoa did it again !

-New Sept contract but another 💪 $1500 MoM move
from that 👇previous break zone

[malen @l_malen]

#Cocoa up 51% - a gain of over 1600$

-Recent headlines: "Cocoa prices climb on West Africa crop concerns" (May 6 th)
-"Luck" according to a Chinese proverb is when opportunity meets preparation
👇 see chart: cocoa price has been consolidating for weeks - 💪MoM move

[malen @l_malen]

🧐 Watch out
- ZB / bonds up - ($TNX/ $TYX down )
-YM up
-Dollar up
-Gold up

Not aligned , something got to give

+ USDJPY back to 162 ( remember 2024 top and BOJ warnings )

[malen @l_malen]

-"When you’re trying to issue Treasurys, and the Fed is the only buyer and the prices of the Treasurys are going down and interest rates are up, that’s a dangerous thing”
Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson

[malen @l_malen]

$TYX > 5%
🧐 weekly break

[malen @l_malen]

$TYX > 5%
🧐 weekly break

[malen @l_malen]

#Cocoa up 51% - a gain of over 1600$

-Recent headlines: "Cocoa prices climb on West Africa crop concerns" (May 6 th)
-"Luck" according to a Chinese proverb is when opportunity meets preparation
👇 see chart: cocoa price has been consolidating for weeks - 💪MoM move

[malen @l_malen]

#Cocoa beans are piling up, rotting in warehouses in WA

Exporters have been reluctant to buy at government set rates

After the plunge in prices farmers' profit margin is very slim & they are tempted to abandon growing cocoa & coffee
"We earn nothing from coffee and cocoa"

[malen @l_malen]

#US

-ISM Manufacturing prices paid : 84.6 /prev. 78.3↗️

-ISM Manufacturing employment Index: 46.4 /prev. 48.7↘️

😬 higher prices , lower employment

[malen @l_malen]

#FOMC
-interest rates unchanged
-interest rate futures see 21 bps of easing in 2026 ↔️unchanged
-See 2026 PCE inflation @ 2.7% versus 2.4% in Dec core seen @ 2.7% compared to 2.5%
-See 2.4% GDP growth in 2026 compared to 2.3% in Dec, see longer-run growth @ 2% vs 1.8% in Dec

[malen @l_malen]

#CCK follow up (3)
- as anticipated 👇" watch for a re test / failed re-test of break zone towards the "3400"

[malen @l_malen]

#CCK26 follow up ( 3)
- Cocoa up approx. 3% today
-Gap lower but held & rebound on 🗝️3186 -87 ich 👇
-Currently probing the break @ 3400
-🧐 a re test of high* / failed re test " break zone"

[malen @l_malen]

#Cocoa beans are piling up, rotting in warehouses in WA

Exporters have been reluctant to buy at government set rates

After the plunge in prices farmers' profit margin is very slim & they are tempted to abandon growing cocoa & coffee
"We earn nothing from coffee and cocoa"

[malen @l_malen]

Fully packed week with no less than 3 central banks meetings
-FOMC this Wednesday March 18th *
-SNB, BOE and ECB interest decisions will follow on Thursday

-No change are expected . CME show 99.1% "no change"

-*Conveniently we also have #VIX expiry the very same day

[malen @l_malen]

#CCK26 follow up ( 3)
- Cocoa up approx. 3% today
-Gap lower but held & rebound on 🗝️3186 -87 ich 👇
-Currently probing the break @ 3400
-🧐 a re test of high* / failed re test " break zone"

[malen @l_malen]

#CCK26 follow up (2)

-a gain of $400 since price break > 3100
-tested & retraced from 3315 to 🗝️3186 which held
(cf: March 3rd twitt)

[malen @l_malen]

#CCK26 follow up (2)

-a gain of $400 since price break > 3100
-tested & retraced from 3315 to 🗝️3186 which held
(cf: March 3rd twitt)

[malen @l_malen]

🧐 #CCK26
-It's been a while since cocoa price has gained over 4% in a day (on Monday CCK26 up 4.6% )

-Price has now reached back to a multi year price range prior to the historic take off - and somewhat oversold on monthly-weekly chart
-🧐 a break > 3100-3186 🗝️ then 3315

[malen @l_malen]

#CCK26 follow up (1)

-CC proce broke > 3100 and probed to 3312 as anticipated
( cf: previous twitt )

[malen @l_malen]

🧐 #CCK26
-It's been a while since cocoa price has gained over 4% in a day (on Monday CCK26 up 4.6% )

-Price has now reached back to a multi year price range prior to the historic take off - and somewhat oversold on monthly-weekly chart
-🧐 a break > 3100-3186 🗝️ then 3315

[malen @l_malen]

#oil price "the conditioning and asymetric variable" follow up ...

#ES it's all about oil

[malen @l_malen]

#oil price the conditioning and asymmetric variable (b)

-short term /long term

[malen @l_malen]

#oil price the conditioning and asymmetric variable (b)

-short term /long term

[malen @l_malen]

#oil price the conditioning and asymmetric variable

"in the short term a 1 % ↗️ in oil price vol immediately leads to a 2.686 % ↘️ in the market returns"

"a similar 1% ↘️ in oil price vol is associated with a 6.3180 % ↗️ in the market returns

J. Risk Financial Manag 2024
$OVX