Landon

[Landon @landondfw]

@TonerousHyus Ultimately, many engineering jobs will suffer the same fate, particularly CS disciplines. The jobs that are “safest” (a relative term) are high level sales (think B2B) and anything that requires a robotic interface between the human and work product.

https://t.co/YH4oansdCe

[Landon @landondfw]

@RealCarlAllen This projection was made using EV data. Check the date. Carl - you need to be humble enough to reevaluate your assumptions. That’s called being a mindful professional. You’re not alone a lot of folks in the polling industry need to earnestly evaluate their assumptions.

[Landon @landondfw]

@CoreyKilpack @yieldchad - hadn’t done so until now, but I just revisited this projection. You should to when you have a moment.

[Landon @landondfw]

@RealCarlAllen They herded because they didn’t trust their sample. Because it was wrong and they didn’t know how to correct it. Just consider what I’m saying, would having the right D-to-R sampling have remedied much of … the “polling error” in 2024?

[Carl Allen @RealCarlAllen]

If some pollster, after collecting and weighting their data, observed a major swing state (say, PA)

As

52
46

What incentive do they have to release it as such?

I'm absolutely serious.

Properly understood, regardless of result, this data has value.

BUT...

[Landon @landondfw]

@RealCarlAllen We projected these results based on EV data. If you weighted R-to-D sample demographics based on EV projected turnout, would your model have been more reflective of the results?

[Landon @landondfw]

@RealCarlAllen @RealCarlAllen - in GA, there was a 2% reduction in AA vote share, and a 2% increase in overall turnout. What laws did GA pass to suppress AA turnout while increasing overall turnout? Philly and Detroit had similar AA turnout shifts, approximately 2%.

[Landon @landondfw]

@CATSFORTRUMP99 @ccadelago Neither could have beat DJT this cycle. Harris and Biden spent four years destroying middle class standard of living, War mongering, opening southern border, and orchestrating the persecution of their political opposition. TDS is the only reason it wasn’t worse.

[Landon @landondfw]

@tbonier You mean R low propensity turned out, D low propensity did not, and high propensity Rs/Ds showed up as normal?
A 2-3% shift in R v D turnout reflecting the voter Reg shift wasn’t imaginary. Oh, and women 52-48 or 53-47?

[Landon @landondfw]

@tbonier A pattern that you were mostly aware of Nov 9, when you crosscorrelated voter reg with EV lists by precinct, and projected LP and new voter ED turnout based on precinct/district/demo cross-correlations. That pattern is 2% red in AA vote share and similar inc in rural WWC.

[Landon @landondfw]

@MarkHalperin This is precisely the fundamental misunderstanding that led to last night being a surprise for so many Dems. We vote for DJT “because” of things like the Lincoln project - not despite them.

[Landon @landondfw]

@tbonier Tom - no campaign tactics would have changed this outcome. We are modeling turnout in a far less sophisticated way than you do, based on voter reg demographics and EV data. You (like us) projected GA (and by extension GA) based on demographic correlations between ATL and Philly.

[Landon @landondfw]

@DumpTrump_45 I can feel the unity in your statement! I knew we’d come together after all this

[Landon @landondfw]

@blockedfreq can you go over the finer points of your “360 Vote firewall” calculations? I was double checking your math and seems I forgot to carry a zero or something

[Landon @landondfw]

@TheDataGooroo It just hit me. We elected a felon. A beautiful felon!

[Landon @landondfw]

@PhoenixWomanMN @tbonier @tbonier - I think we both learned something about PA demographics tonight. Wouldn’t you agree?

[Landon @landondfw]

@PhoenixWomanMN @tbonier If you were going to canvass in these regions targeting low propensity Reg Rs, where would you start? This isn’t rocket science and I don’t need to comb through a half dozen paragraphs to effectively troll Tom.

[Landon @landondfw]

@TonerousHyus we’re looking to understand the GA ED turnout by race; also total turnout by race. Can you advise on where and when this information will be available? It’s a key factor in our polymarket position.

[Landon @landondfw]

@TonerousHyus @DataRepublican @DataRepublican @TonerousHyus - GA EV tally will drop before 8pm ET, per below. Can we expect GA ED turnout to be released at that time? So we’d know roughly 80% of vote results and also remaining 20% of ED turnout before PA closes?

[Landon @landondfw]

@TonerousHyus @DataRepublican
we’re monitoring the GA turnout data by county as it may influence Polymarket positions. Any sense on when we can begin looking at ED rural vs ATL turnout?

[Landon @landondfw]

@UknowHowIFeeel @tbonier Thank god someone reminded high propensity Rs in south Philly that today was ED! FWIW, D’s canvass in Philly to reach low propensity AA voters. PoC are 45% of Philly demographic. This isn’t really debatable it’s simply the demographics of canvassing.

[Jack Posobiec @JackPosobiec]

Contact in South Philly says turnout is steady in the GOP divisions