Mike Maran

PM @ Lanmar Capital

[Mike Maran @lanmarcap]

$BTC cycle suggests key lows likely in Q4 22' - Q1 2023, followed by several months of consolidation before a change in trend.

Cycle peak to cycle low took 12-14 months in the 13' and 18' bear markets.

Watch for capitulation/prolonged chop in this zone for a buying opportunity

[Mike Maran @lanmarcap]

@factor_members ~ .35

Risk is too large for a single contract per 1m trading capital so likely need a 3 mill account per 1 contract

[Mike Maran @lanmarcap]

@factor_members Did the same this morning.. :)

[Mike Maran @lanmarcap]

@TechCharts @tradingview [email protected]

[Mike Maran @lanmarcap]

@factor_members This was great. More of these please!

[Mike Maran @lanmarcap]

Fear of missing a move was always the biggest for me

Nearly always led to chasing/adding at the wrong time

The antidote was rigid preparation / having a plan for all possibilities of a trade before I’d initiate and while in a trade

Favorite quote.. “Give me six hours to chop down a tree, and I will spend the first four sharpening the axe” - Abraham Lincoln

[Mike Maran @lanmarcap]

@KochmanMatthew @factor_members Different time frames.. short term breakdown is noise on a 25 year chart

[Mike Maran @lanmarcap]

@factor_members B

[Mike Maran @lanmarcap]

@factor_members “My edge comes from surviving chaos” 💎 

[Mike Maran @lanmarcap]

@LeifSoreide @tradetheblue Sugar, corn, and cotton futures

Gold yesterday to the downside

Slim to none in stocks. Only thing working there is fading prior day highs or prior lows

[Mike Maran @lanmarcap]

@factor_members Nice chart!

[Mike Maran @lanmarcap]

Consolidation in an long term uptrend. My view is a break of the neckline is highly prone to a false breakdown. The quarterly chart can be a viewed as a bull flag variation above the 8 quarter MA. A weekly close below 450ish would be a character change in the uptrend. Not something I’d short either way

[Mike Maran @lanmarcap]

@factor_members Makes perfect sense. Appreciate the detailed clarification!

[Mike Maran @lanmarcap]

@factor_members Too much* overhead

[Mike Maran @lanmarcap]

@factor_members I found they’re best as just visual guides for compression.. nothing more.

For those that wonder why, diagonals have too overhead supply. Each pivot higher is likely met with selling and morphs with time. The steeper the slope the higher the failure rate (in my experience)

[Mike Maran @lanmarcap]

@factor_members Peter, have you seen this many false breakdowns/traps in the past in other market regimes?

seems they’ve become a lot more common, but not sure if it’s just the environment or I’m seeing them more. Seeing it a ton in equities & BTC

Do you often use them as an entry tactic?

[Mike Maran @lanmarcap]

@saxton_pope @factor_members Truly

[Mike Maran @lanmarcap]

@factor_members Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader was the biggest influence in my trading journey. I know you don’t love your book, but it was pivotal for me and I’m sure many traders. I’m not sure trade this trade would have happened if not for that book

[Mike Maran @lanmarcap]

@factor_members One of my favorite emails!

[Mike Maran @lanmarcap]

@factor_members I really want to be long this but the overhead supply around 1120 leads me to think it might be a bit messy/ choppy wedge action before a real move occurs. My thinking is something like the image shown.. maybe overthinking this one but id prefer more time for consolidation