Larry

FX & Macro Insights | Analyzing trends that moves Market

[Larry @larrynol]

@msdende @Citi973 In as much as I’m not against accountability, does the NPRA keep funds or utilize funds of pensioners? Unless it’s one of those street politics as they call it. 🤦🏾

[Larry @larrynol]

@kwakulotteryy The US Embassy will not be asking all these questions on a stretch. They don’t individualize

[Larry @larrynol]

These details have not been independently verified.

To protect the reputation of the Presbyterian Church of Ghana and ensure clarity, I urge an immediate internal review while awaiting any official investigative updates.

[Larry @larrynol]

@PresbyOfficial, There’s an unconfirmed report of a possible land related dispute involving a District Minister, with figures reportedly around GHC 350,000, and indications that the individual may have been briefly detained by the Tesano Police for clarification.

[Larry @larrynol]

@zubaidah_x @CediRates Caveat: The rate advertised is the global fx rate. For cross transactions, there is a 0.2% to 1% markup and an issuer fee from 1% to 3% depending on the bank. This covers settlements, processing and FX Risks.

[Larry @larrynol]

Ghana’s FX market is looking optimistic but fragile. BoG’s aggressive USD sales (from its gold-for-reserves program) + IMF support have underpinned a strong Cedi. But with gold risk, reserve valuation, and fiscal discipline still in play, the terrain remains thin.
#cedi #Ghana

[Larry @larrynol]

@gyaigyimii Make I allow you grow my egg nest? Let’s decode Ghana’s FX pulse together 😊

[🇬🇭Amanda Odoi (Ph.D) @IamAmanda_Odoi]

We need to go beyond the protest and hashtag now and demand for a clearly mapped out plan/solution for stopping Galamsey from the current presidential aspirants. One we can use to hold them accountable and not lip service. There’s more time before elections. #StopGalamaseyNow

[Larry @larrynol]

@Joy997FM If cedi appreciation already slows remittances, what happens when the US remittance tax kicks in by 2026 , given the US sends ~30% of Ghana’s total remittance inflows?

Will BoG’s FX intermediation alone be enough to cushion lost diaspora dollars?

[Larry @larrynol]

Ghana’s FX Support Shift

Then: Eurobond inflows boosted FX liquidity but built external debt & short-term stability.

Now: Gold-backed flows offer non-debt FX supply, improving reserve cover & reducing pressure on the cedi.

Less volatile depreciation, stronger BoG control

[Larry @larrynol]

Cedi’s 5-Year Performance:

USD/GHS up 82.7%, from ≈₵5.72 (2020) to ₵10.62 (2025).
Despite spikes to near ₵18.8 (Jan 2023), BoG’s FX intermediation & gold-for-reserves program have helped claw back losses. ~$365m sold so far.
NB: Actual client txns and not interbank rates.

[Larry @larrynol]

When US remittance volumes to Ghana drop even 1-2% due to the tax, we may see downward pressure on inflows that support import cover, debt servicing & FX liquidity directly to commercial banks

[Larry @larrynol]

@EcofinAgency US Remittance Tax Could Weigh Heavily on African Economies https://t.co/NNV7Hn0FcR

[Larry @larrynol]

Impact:
Lower formal remittance inflows → tighter USD supply, greater pressure on Cedi and increased use of informal channels (harder to track & tax)

[Larry @larrynol]

BoG’s new USD NOP cap (0% to –10%) curbs banks’ ability to hold long dollar positions. A game changer.
This has forced FX turnover, limiting speculation & supporting the cedi near-term.

[Larry @larrynol]

4/4 | Barring external shocks, the cedi is projected to trade between GHS 12.80–13.40/USD by end-December 2025.
Sustained BoG supply + IMF inflows = stability, but sustainability still hinges on fiscal discipline and post-holiday demand trends. #GhanaCedi @JoyNewsOnTV @CediRates

[Larry @larrynol]

1/4 | Ghana Cedi Outlook – Q4 2025

The cedi enters Q4 on firmer ground, supported by BoG’s FX intermediation, strong gold inflows and a calmer demand cycle. With most import orders for the holidays already cleared, market pressure has eased temporarily.

[Larry @larrynol]

3/4 | FX demand is seasonally softer, while fiscal controls have slowed new spending. Commercial banks report improved FX access, with spreads narrowing. Retail demand remains active, but not aggressive enough to trigger major depreciation pressures.