Lösung für Deutschlands Probleme:
Den Linken erklären, dass ne Klimaanlage auch nur ne Wärmepumpe ist.
Den Rechten erklären, dass ne Wärmepumpe auch nur ne Klimaanlage ist.
it's not lack of compute that's the issze. it's that in Europe, it's unthinkable to pay a guy in his mid 20s $600k salary and give him resources and freedom to train models without having oversight by a committee of gerontocratic professorswho don't keep up with the research
Sevim Dağdelen (BSW) beim Betreten der russischen Botschaft im Mai 2025. Empfangen wird sie von einem GRU-Agenten und Kurator des Spionagenetzwerks in Deutschland.
🧵1/22
Heute vor sieben Jahren, am 20. Mai 2019, wurde Wolodymyr Selenskyj vereidigt.
Wie schnell man in sieben Jahren altern kann?
Selenskyj: Hold my beer! 🍺
Das ist kein Altern, das ist Materialermüdung im Zeitraffer.
So sieht ein Mann aus, der jeden Morgen aufwacht und sich fragt, ob heute eine Rakete in seinem Büro landet.
Dieser „koksende Clown!“, dieser „Diktator!“ – heißt es noch heute. Er sitze ja unrechtmäßig im Amt, fand sogar Donald Trump, schließlich gab es seit Jahren keine Wahlen.
Stimmt. Geht halt nicht. Weil die ukrainische Verfassung Wahlen während des Kriegsrechts schlicht verbietet: Artikel 83, festgeschrieben lange bevor der erste russische Panzer rollte.
Nicht Selenskyj hat das erfunden. Sogar die Opposition will keine Wahlen im Krieg. Aber wer Propaganda macht, liest selten Artikel zu Ende.
Dieser „Schauspieler“ bestimmt heute die Weltpolitik. Und das Imperium, das sein Land in drei Tagen schlucken wollte, ihn kidnappen und in den Gulag verschleppen wollte, kaut seit über vier Jahren am selben Bissen.
Ausgerechnet das Land, das am lautesten „unrechtmäßiger Präsident!“ ruft, ist Russland, in dem das Wahlergebnis feststeht, bevor der Termin verkündet wird.
Inzwischen gefolgt von den USA, in denen der Präsident mit seiner dritten Amtszeit kokettiert.
Man muss schon eine besondere Begabung haben, um aus dem eigenen Spiegelbild eine Anklage zu basteln.
Aus dem belächelten Schauspieler ist einer geworden, der inzwischen sogar gleich zwei Imperien die Stirn bietet.
Das Lachen ist verstummt. Weil immer mehr begreifen, dass die wahren Clowns im Kreml und im Weißen Haus sitzen.
If it's true that "you need a substantial share of women to have three or more children," then we should take a close look at unnecessarily burdensome regulations that make having a third child particularly expensive for families.
Increases in the mandatory age at which a child must stay in a car seat raise the cost of a third child by forcing parents to buy larger vehicles to accommodate three car seats. The age keeps rising with a minimal impact on safety.
Last year, a new minivan's average cost was $59,031. The expense makes having a third child so costly that one study estimates extended-age car seat requirements "prevented only 57 car crash fatalities of children nationwide in 2017. Simultaneously, they led to a reduction of approximately 8,000 births in the same year, and 145,000 fewer births since 1980, with 90 percent of this decline being since 2000."
Four days ago, I wrote that after every Trump-Putin phone call, something deranged follows within weeks. I said mark the date. I said the clock is ticking.
I was wrong. It took seventy-two hours.
Allow me to recap what the leader of the free world has done to his closest allies since that cosy ninety-minute phone call with a man who poisons people in their driveways.
Germany: 5,000 troops withdrawn. More promised. The Army’s Long Range Fires Battalion, scheduled to deploy to Europe, quietly cancelled. Germany, which actually met its NATO spending targets, which opened its bases and airspace to American operations, which did everything Trump asked, got punished anyway. Because its chancellor had the audacity to point out that Iran was humiliating Washington at the negotiating table. He was right. That was the problem.
Italy: threatened with troop withdrawal because, in Trump’s words, Italy “has not been of any help.” Italy, a founding NATO member. Italy, which hosts tens of thousands of American troops and several critical US military installations. Useless, apparently.
Spain: “horrible. Absolutely horrible.” Spain’s crime was refusing to let the United States use Spanish bases and airspace to bomb Iran. A sovereign decision by a sovereign ally. Described by the President of the United States as horrible.
The European Union: 25% tariffs on cars and trucks, announced in the same week as the troop withdrawals. Germany builds cars. This was not a coincidence.
And through all of this, Vladimir Putin got a ceasefire proposal endorsed, a nuclear diplomacy role handed to him on a plate, and not a single harsh word.
Four days ago I predicted one unhinged announcement, one ally humiliated, and one idea so catastrophically stupid that the national security apparatus would spend a weekend trying to undo it.
We got four allies humiliated, two economic attacks, and a full military retreat from the continent America spent eighty years promising to defend.
I would say I am surprised. But I wrote it down in advance. Which makes this less a prediction and more a schedule.
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I suspect there are quite a few politicians sitting in various corners of Europe and North America who are rather anxious these days about the prospect of information emerging in the coming weeks and months regarding how they received funds, channelled through the Hungarian government and Hungarian state-financed organisations, to conduct subversive political activities in their home countries.
And yes, Orbán himself has in all likelihood received a substantial portion of this money directly from Russia — primarily through Gazprom.
The evidence for the broader Kremlin-Hungary nexus has grown dramatically in recent weeks. A major consortium of investigative journalists published transcripts of phone calls between Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó and Russian officials, strongly suggesting that Budapest functioned as a fifth column within the EU with Szijjártó allegedly coordinating with Moscow to undermine sanctions and sharing intelligence on Ukraine's EU accession process.
Szijjártó himself visited Moscow no fewer than 16 times following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
The financial architecture underpinning this relationship is also becoming clearer. Investigative reporting has traced Orbán-linked financial forces specifically connected to Hungarian state-affiliated banks to the financing of far-right parties elsewhere in Europe, including Marine Le Pen's campaign in France and Spain's Vox party.
The money trail does not appear to run directly from Gazprom to Orbán to foreign parties, but rather through a layered system of Hungarian state intermediaries.
The deeper Russian connection comes via energy deals: between 2011 and 2015, Hungarian gas purchases were routed through an opaque intermediary company, MET International, with both Russian and Hungarian ownership and documented ties to Putin's inner circle and Orbán's government.
This brings us to CPAC Hungary. Magyar has now confirmed publicly what many suspected: CPAC was paid for by the Hungarian state. In his words, "the state should never have financed them in the first place — it was a crime."
The same applies to related institutions such as the Mathias Corvinus Collegium, which served as a key vehicle for spreading Orbán's ideological influence across Europe and beyond.
I am not suggesting that every politician who attended CPAC Hungary knowingly received Russian-linked funds.
But the financing chain is now confirmed — Hungarian taxpayers' money, quite possibly supplemented by Russian energy revenues, was used to host and cultivate a global network of like-minded politicians.
If I were a journalist in any country whose politicians attended those events, that would seem a rather pressing line of inquiry.
The urgency of that inquiry is underscored by what is reportedly happening right now. According to Magyar's international press conference, Szijjártó has barricaded himself with close colleagues and is actively destroying and shredding documents specifically evidence relating to sanctions against Russia.
If accurate, this is not the behaviour of an innocent man. It is the behaviour of someone who knows exactly what those documents contain and who those documents implicate.
One hopes the new Hungarian government moves fast enough to secure what remains.
some thoughts on anthropic at $30bn run rate
1) anthropic is growing at an annualized 9,700%; this is the fastest revenue growth at this scale in history
2) i don't know how to communicate the significance of anthropic's growth rate at this scale without sounding hyperbolic
3) i asked claude and the best comparison that i could find was nvidia, which grew at a 1,240% annualized rate during its best individual quarter growth ever (q2 fy24)
4) i think there are three important things to highlight about the penetration of ai into the economy; the first is that a lot of ai revenue accrues to whoever has first mover advantage
5) it seems like openai and anthropic have models at similar levels of quality and once one is able to get a foothold in a market, it is hard to get users to switch
6) so, after openai released chatgpt first and got a lot of consumer users, it was hard for anthropic to ever catch up and get these users to start using claude
7) and, anthropic has an advantage now that revenue is being driven by coding agents, claude code was released first and ordinary users think of claude when they think of coding agents
8) the second important thing, i think is that ai is just very easy to adopt and so it doesn't have the difficult adoption curve that other products have
9) it is so general that you can just call the same api for almost any use case, there is no complicated knowledge that you need to have, and it is human shaped, so there is no complicated ui/ux to learn
10) the third important thing, i think, which @justjoshinyou13 said in another thread discussing lab revenue is that as ai capabilities increase, they create new adoption curves
11) so claude code created a new adoption curve because it is fundamentally a different product that chatgpt and it has a different kind of demand; since it solved a whole new set of use cases
12) we should continue to see this kind of growth as capabilities increase, increased capabilities means easier adoption (more human, more general) across more surfaces (coding, law, medicine, etc...)
13) so, increased capabilities reset the revenue growth rates of these companies in ways that can be very surprising to people looking at traditional industries
14) i do not think economists or lab bears have internalized this reality yet, it means that that diffusion of agi could be much faster than previously thought across private enterprise
15) i still think diffusion across government, protected industries, etc... will be slower, since they have reasons not to adopt or to adopt in ways that limit its practical impact
16) i guess a final thought: i believe anthropic may have surpassed openai's revenue run rate, so long as anthropic has access to compute, we could be in for a very wild dynamic at the top
17) it will be interesting to see the extent to which openai's efforts to buy up as much compute as possible first helps buffer the impact of anthropic's extreme revenue growth in terms of access to resources
Taleb has a thought experiment in The Black Swan. Imagine a legislator who, before 9/11, mandated reinforced cockpit doors. The attacks never happen. Nobody knows. He gets no credit. Probably even criticized for the cost.
This seems to be what Musk is describing here. The 90% whose lives are saved by self-driving cars will never know. But the 10% who still die? Those become lawsuits, headlines, and outrage.
Runaway Luggage. A short brand film that was created using just two input images and a short description of the overall idea using the Ad Concepter App. Full breakdown coming soon. Story description and input images below.