Mitchell Lawlor

Ophthalmologist, glaucoma specialist, bioethics, evidence and values in healthcare.

[Mitchell Lawlor @Lawlor_Mitchell]

@enenbee @PerpetualWinger Are you implying a decision to lock down is never political, whereas a decision not to lock down is always political? It is hard to know the ‘right’ choice in advance, and the level of risk tolerated is influenced by previous successes and failures with particular strategies

[Mitchell Lawlor @Lawlor_Mitchell]

@EstherRockett @MockDelbourne @ScottMorrisonMP surely the trial must have both allowance for the vaxed to exit + vaxed to return with monitored home quarantine: this would avoid the hotel quarantine block = less stranded, and ramp up commercial flights thus pushing down airfare costs?

[Mitchell Lawlor @Lawlor_Mitchell]

@profsarahj @WPartlett Surely the decision to lock down involves a value judgement + a risk assessment.
Vic Govt/DHHS was responsible for a long lockdown & now tolerance for any risk is v low = lockdown until 0 risk. NSW doesn’t have that historical albatross = hold off lockdowns even with more cases

[Mitchell Lawlor @Lawlor_Mitchell]

@kswindells1 @Adam_Creighton Article was from Dec 20, on that day:

n beaches lockdown already in place ✅ isolation of close contacts happening ✅
community testing at 30k+ daily ✅
It was already happening.

Articles based on worst case rather than likely scenarios drive fear and poor policy decisions

[Mitchell Lawlor @Lawlor_Mitchell]

@dlmetcalf @snouzin @DrPieterPeach @scruff888 @RussellRetired @normanswan @coronacast_ @VictorianCHO @DrJaneMunro @an_leavy @GregHuntMP @MarylouiseMcla1 @PMGPSC not trolling, genuinely engaging with the evidence.

In areas of high community transmission mandatory masks a no brainer (USA, UK, Melb 2nd wave).

I just haven’t seen evidence of benefit when v low comm transmission (NSW outside n beaches)

[Mitchell Lawlor @Lawlor_Mitchell]

@snouzin @DrPieterPeach @scruff888 @RussellRetired @normanswan @coronacast_ @VictorianCHO @DrJaneMunro @an_leavy @GregHuntMP @MarylouiseMcla1 @dlmetcalf @PMGPSC Am I missing something in this push for mandatory masks? NSW 8 cases with 40k+ tests/day = minimal comm transmission = even fewer asympt cases.

I choose to wear a mask, but surely the number of infections prevented by mandating 7 mill people to wear a mask is incredibly small?

[Mitchell Lawlor @Lawlor_Mitchell]

@GidMK It has definitely shown that ‘following expert advice’ isnt so simple when that ranges from Laissez faire to Chicken Licken.

To their credit @GladysB BH and KC focus on risk management based on evidence at a given time point, rather than fear and wild predictions

[Mitchell Lawlor @Lawlor_Mitchell]

@MikeCarlton01 Fair point. We are bad at this. Scheduling systems should update patients in real time. An apology is courteous, but it won’t get you to school pickup on time. One solution is to book fewer patients, but then wait times for appointments blows out with its own set of problems

[Mitchell Lawlor @Lawlor_Mitchell]

@russ67 @AnnastaciaMP 3 biggest sources of tourism income for Qld: international, Melbourne, Sydney. All locked out. No doubt increased domestic tourism, but not a shadow of normal.
I can only think that @AnnastaciaMP has no confidence in her pub health/ contact tracing system, any other explanation??

[Mitchell Lawlor @Lawlor_Mitchell]

@Vic_Rollison confirmation the testing was low. need to learn from mistakes so we don’t make them again

https://t.co/Q88i9PKWKT

[Mitchell Lawlor @Lawlor_Mitchell]

@Vic_Rollison This seems to show the opposite to your claim: 2 weeks (one incubation period) before stage 3 lockdown, testing was very low <10,000 per day? this is when the ball was dropped

[Mitchell Lawlor @Lawlor_Mitchell]

@DrPieterPeach A cherry picked baseline, no multivariate analysis.

Great for reinforcing the partisan divide and making us feel better than the ‘other side’. Zero value in illuminating the public policy response

[Mitchell Lawlor @Lawlor_Mitchell]

@TRN57523902 @Vic_Rollison I actually don’t think Andrews should go, that would be terribly destabilising for the response.

I was responding to the false equivalence between the NSW and Vic situation. Agree we need to know what went wrong in Vic to make sure other states don’t go the same way.

[Mitchell Lawlor @Lawlor_Mitchell]

@Stevelongy1 @Vic_Rollison Yep p266 of Ruby Princess report:

excluding those who caught Covid on the ship (NSW Health can’t avoid that) 68 people caught Covid secondarily with no deaths. Add NW Tassie cluster, 138 cases and 10 deaths.

Terrible for those people, but nothing compared to 750+ deaths in Vic

[Mitchell Lawlor @Lawlor_Mitchell]

@catrollison Contact tracing = backbone of public health response. Lockdown to zero cases takes forever, and even then cases pop up (see NZ). If Vic doesn’t fix their test trace isolate, they are vulnerable to yet another wave. Vic best learn those superpowers

[Mitchell Lawlor @Lawlor_Mitchell]

Great article on how modeling quantifies and informs, but then decisions “require balancing the trade-offs ­between lives affected and livelihoods lost. It entails a choice of how much one can and should constrain the liberties and lives of citizens.” https://t.co/OiB5T8zBkb

[Mitchell Lawlor @Lawlor_Mitchell]

@patto_1981 @Vic_Rollison @rachelbaxendale @australian Yup, strange to argue black is white just because you disagree with another journalists story. Even Sutton confirms Vic contact tracing well below NSW https://t.co/sFjCHHmBZr

[Mitchell Lawlor @Lawlor_Mitchell]

They will do this not for our protection against risk, but for their own protection against criticism.” Some sage advice from Jonathan Sumption in an era of Ruby Princess and high expections on government... #RubyPrincess #gladys

[Mitchell Lawlor @Lawlor_Mitchell]

“Free people make mistakes and willingly take risks. If we hold politicians responsible for everything that goes wrong, they will take away our liberty so that nothing can go wrong.