LD

Biotech Investor

[LD @ldbioinv]

@RPsoyo @Getoutofmyway1 @Archimedes20311 *You’re

[LD @ldbioinv]

Obe is a decent drug. Ico is a good drug. Emvi is not great. Rezpeg is bad. Tibu is TBD but I’m skeptical. Everyone needs to chill.

[LD @ldbioinv]

@Getoutofmyway1 @Archimedes20311 AD data are inferior to dupi on both efficacy and safety. Not exciting.

[LD @ldbioinv]

@Getoutofmyway1 @Archimedes20311 https://t.co/uTlD2B0iCq

[LD @ldbioinv]

$NKTR Can someone explain to me the obsession over this name? Bunch of post-hoc small N uncontrolled analyses on a failed ph2 study. At best this look like a mildly efficacious drug with suboptimal dosing. What am I missing?

[LD @ldbioinv]

@aggregategains 3 divided by 2

[LD @ldbioinv]

@A_May_MD @Archimedes20311 It was strengthened bc it is now based on 3 data points vs 2 prior. It’s not a new bear case if that is what you are saying. But it’s objectively a stronger bear case today vs yesterday.

[LD @ldbioinv]

@A_May_MD @Archimedes20311 All I am saying that there has been ongoing debate whether pbo rates are going up in HS studies following $MLTX and $AVTX data or whether those were 1-offs. This third data point today suggests that it more likely a broader trend vs simply two 1-offs.

[LD @ldbioinv]

@A_May_MD @Archimedes20311 No, 3 data points is a 50% increase vs 2 data points prior 😎

[LD @ldbioinv]

@A_May_MD @Archimedes20311 This adds a 3rd data point. 50% increase from prior 2 data points you cited. That’s not insignificant. If pbo for $ZURA is indeed in the 20s that makes the setup much tougher.

[LD @ldbioinv]

@A_May_MD $ZURA Disagree. This is yet another data point suggestive of high pbo response in more contemporary trials.

[LD @ldbioinv]

@seedy19tron @BiotechPort @statnews $MRNA $MRK aside from obvious focus on overall HR (“lower the better” vs ~0.65 wall street bar) I am curious if they break out data in high vs low TMB pts. If data look consistent across TMB status that bodes well for RCC.

[LD @ldbioinv]

@ScorpionFund @adamfeuerstein Amazing short call. Annoying $NBIX was so dumb.

[LD @ldbioinv]

$DFTX $CMPS WF doc panel particularly negative. Expect uptake 90-95% below Spravato.

Issues highlighted: staffing requirements, bathroom needs

[LD @ldbioinv]

@deathtouch2k The debate isn’t demand. It’s a question of bed space, nursing staff, etc. needed for 8hr $DFTX sessions. Spravato (~2hrs) isn’t the right comp bc it doesn’t have that constraint. https://t.co/DXjV7kwCrT

[LD @ldbioinv]

@AaronRosenblum5 1) market condition were very different in May when $AVTX reported data.

2) IL1b is a different MOA vs SOC IL17. unlikely that docs put an IL17-failure on an IL17/BAFF unless efficacy proven in IL17F-failure subgroup. IL1b data look good in IL17-exp pts.

[LD @ldbioinv]

$MRK TLA1 ph2 just put up 27% pbo-adj HiSCR75.

$MLTX ph2 20-29% pbo-adj HiSCR75 which regressed in ph3.

$ABBV IL1a/b ph2 21-28% pbo-adj HiSCR75, ph3 data imminent.

$ZURA bar is mid-20s% pbo-adj HiSCR75.

$AVTX 17% delta confounded by high pbo.

[Adam May @A_May_MD]

448 days since my last pitch ($ABVX), it’s now finally time for my next one: $ZURA (Zura Bio).

Like with the $NKTR and $ABVX pitches before this, I will post a general outline of my research on $ZURA as a thread here. However, for those looking to really get into the weeds, there is a Google Doc link to the full length pitch attached below.

Let’s dig in.

https://t.co/b1KfL51T6F

[LD @ldbioinv]

@adamfeuerstein h/t Cantor

[LD @ldbioinv]

@Archimedes20311 @plainyogurt21 $TRAX Are we really talking about mild injection site redness in a minority of pts at loading dose (likely a non-issue for lower maintenance doses)?

The alternative is no pizza ever for these pts and/or chronic diarrhea/nausea/etc.

[LD @ldbioinv]

$KOD all the buzz at #AAO26, near-universal praise.

Less discussed: Roche 52wk SANDCAT data worsened over time. Recall this study failed to hit its 16wk primary endpoint. Odds of approval now lower.

Possible $KOD has MESI all to itself pending ph3 results.

[LD @ldbioinv]

$KOD Baker meanwhile bought another ~$160mn of stock this week at an avg price of ~$80/share. I suppose they too are bullish into MESI.