♕Deborah Mayo♕

professor of philosophy of science, logic, experiment, statistical inference; now an independent philosopher & stock trader; split time in NYC & Va (and London)

[♕Deborah Mayo♕ @learnfromerror]

@dylanarmbruste3 https://t.co/2zWWu4m6r9

[♕Deborah Mayo♕ @learnfromerror]

New CFP at Synthese! I invite you to contribute: Topical Collection: severity and learning from error

[♕Deborah Mayo♕ @learnfromerror]

toss, get rid of; or shorthand for British king
Wordle 1,799 3/6

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[♕Deborah Mayo♕ @learnfromerror]

I hesitate, as I am reluctant to give hints on today's word.
Wordle 1,794 3/6

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[The Seeker @TheSeeker268]

Justice demands that every individual or institution, that funded, conducted, or enabled high-risk virus research in Wuhan, along with the scientists who published those misleading papers while concealing their conflicts of interest, plus the journals that refuse to retract them, be held fully accountable.

Anthony Fauci and his advisor may have been at the center of that ecosystem, but they were not alone. Many others have their fingerprints on it: researchers, intermediaries, journals, and gatekeepers who enabled the work and enforced their preferred narrative.

Accountability should extend across the board. It shouldn’t stop at the surface. That means confronting and dismantling the network behind it.

The public has every right to expect that.

[♕Deborah Mayo♕ @learnfromerror]

I can only compare my getting today's word on the second round to the last time a most unlikely guess turned out to be right.

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[♕Deborah Mayo♕ @learnfromerror]

Was quite sure they'd never use such a simple word...but they did. Wordle 1,771 2/6

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[♕Deborah Mayo♕ @learnfromerror]

Some Bayesians refuse to grant frequentists the use of any term. Frequentist error probabilities are hypothetical claims associated with methods, (e.g., the prob test T would yield d(X) > d(x) computed under h'). If they were called X-probs, some Bayesians would still say, they're not X-probs, only posteriors are. Bayesians should allow frequentists to define their terms, reject their use if you don't like them, but don't insist they must be posteriors, when they're not.

[♕Deborah Mayo♕ @learnfromerror]

@f2harrell @AprileBernardi @PavlosMsaouel @elmir1omerovic @StatModeling That's exactly why a Bayesian posterior is not an error probability. But the last sentence makes no sense--a prior is the cost of an error prob???

[♕Deborah Mayo♕ @learnfromerror]

@f2harrell @AprileBernardi @PavlosMsaouel @elmir1omerovic @StatModeling Degree of belief in H given e is what Bayes gives--where's the error prob? There is none. An error prob is attached to a method for reaching error prone claims based on data. It tells us how often it does so erroneously.

[♕Deborah Mayo♕ @learnfromerror]

@_bcalexan @f2harrell @AprileBernardi @PavlosMsaouel @elmir1omerovic @StatModeling Bayesian probs aren't error probs, can't tell just what the second means.

[♕Deborah Mayo♕ @learnfromerror]

@f2harrell @AprileBernardi @PavlosMsaouel @elmir1omerovic @StatModeling Posterior probs aren't error probs, and what's more, they're not given error probabilities. As David Cox said: "they are what they are".

[CHT @PrometheusCHT]

Reading @learnfromerror! 📖

[♕Deborah Mayo♕ @learnfromerror]

Sure I can: Assume H. Derive a contradiction. Therefore H is in error.

[♕Deborah Mayo♕ @learnfromerror]

Another example of the failure to understand reductio and falsification arguments https://t.co/PXUyy3gmYJ

[Frank Harrell @f2harrell]

@learnfromerror @PavlosMsaouel @elmir1omerovic @StatModeling You cannot call something an error by assuming the very fact that would make it one.

[♕Deborah Mayo♕ @learnfromerror]

I wouldn't call you this if you excessively flatter me for getting this silly word in just 2 rounds, since it was kind of surprising, little froggy. Wordle 1,764 2/6

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[♕Deborah Mayo♕ @learnfromerror]

@PrometheusCHT Hope you like it! It's 30 years. What do you think of asking people jeopardy-style questions about it, giving points of value

[♕Deborah Mayo♕ @learnfromerror]

@lakens @nulliusverbapod Which Chang? Is the reference to my name? Sorry, I don't think I know how to follow conversations on X in order.

[♕Deborah Mayo♕ @learnfromerror]

@f2harrell @PavlosMsaouel @elmir1omerovic @StatModeling Quantities that "define their own error prob" are ones that lack error probs.