The @Lighter_xyz thesis is simple
> exchanges are the best business in crypto
> the perp exchange is a brand new category
> a zkL2 is the structurally strongest way to build an exchange. High security, low opex, high margins.
> the technical product is the best on the market. Lowest latency, lowest execution costs, fully transparent.
> engineering team cracked
> US domiciled and compliant, unclaimed territory
> a call option on a compliant tokenization - more RWAs issued onchain is money legos for financial products built on Lighter, serving US capital markets
> Vlad is in the right circles, knows the right people, wants to swing big
@Lighter_xyz has a real shot at competing with the top dogs, Coinbase and Robinhood, as a regular crypto exchange (w/ retail onramps), and also spearheading the US perp financialization market
Beyond that, Lighter has the opportunity to evolve what it means to be financial institution in the US.
Lighter's business logic is encoded in zk circuits. It is non-custodial, fully auditable, provably correct, all secured by Ethereum.
This is what a next-generation financial instruction looks like. Low cost, low headcount, massively scalable, entirely built as code, interoperable with Ethereum.
$500m mc
We had a strong week for Lighter infrastructure on Jun 1-7!
Some stats: highest number of orders processed over a 24 hour period (811M), maximum TPS of 20.7K, no latency spikes, with p99 latency at 165ms.
Proving costs under 100k, generated 1M in revenue (used for buybacks).
$LIT
Revenue and trading volume seen good upticks, even this weekend has seen higher numbers than regular trading days while normally much lower in weekends.
Open interest is LOWER then all time low prices so current price is heavily spot driven
Much higher buybacks per market cap then
Past 9 days:
Hype buybacks: 25,03m with 14,02b mcap (0,17% of supply bought)
LIT buybacks 1,2m with 375m mcap (0,32% of supply bought)
LIT currently 2x undervalued compared to HYPE with revenue numbers rising from the bottom and imo most likely will expand more. With LIT currently being 40x lower valued but being their main competitor, there's ALOT of room for repricing if metrics keep picking up like this.
At the top, Binance was worth 35b, at the top of Bybit it was worth 3b), that's approx a ratio of 10x. If LIT achieves 10% of HYPE it still needs to x5.
$ASTER currently has pretty much the same volume as $LIT, but Aster is at a 5x higher mcap.
LIT is going much higher (and HYPE too but that will even increase the potential for LIT)
The easy answer is that Robinhood is an everything platform, and Lighter is highly optimized for perps specifically (altho Lighter roadmap is to also be an everything platform - Perps/Options/Spot/Onramps via @fun)
Lighter has more assets, including more pre-IPO markets. Lighter doesn't require KYC sign up, and Robinhood Perps are for only a closed group of users in the EU.
By contrast, Lighter is VPN blocked in the US.
But beyond that:
Transparency / Auditability
- zkLighter (Lighters zk system) is fully auditable by end users, so anyone can permissionlessly verify the exchange is following its own rules.
Order matching, funding, risk checks, liquidations etc are defined in zk circuits, so Ethereum verifies that they followed Lighter's rules before accepting state updates. Bullish crypto ethos!
This earns the trust of traders and market makers in size, because everyone can trust that there is no privileged party trading against users (i.e. Alameda & FTX)
Latency
- Lighter's got the best latency of any perp exchange. https://t.co/lEKvkaYQzI
Execution cost (fees + slippage)
- Lighter has the best fee structure. Maybe Robinhood (when it eventually rolls out perps) also has a 0-fee structure too, but that means a tie between RH and Lighter, not a RH win.
- You can see Lighter vs Hyperliquid execution cost at the link below. Lighter is beating Hyperliquid in execution.
I'd make the claim that Lighter is beating Robinhood in execution too, but I wouldn't know because
1. I can't access Robinhood perps and
2. I wouldn't be able to audit it anyways
https://t.co/I2CdUDsZzi
Further fee structure resources: https://t.co/rrwcn9mNdg
https://t.co/zNiPcwLd0k
Having the best fee structure also means that consumer apps can choose to use Lighter as a backend, saving on time to market and internal dev cost, without sacrificing much economics.
But thats an answer to "Why would I buy $LIT instead of $HOOD?" which you didn't ask but i'll answer anyway.
The buyback is 100% programatic and non-discretionary. Every hour, the protocol collects all fee revenue and places 100 buy-side limit orders for $LIT from the current price down to -10%.
No human decides when, how much, or at what price. This runs 24/7 on a fixed loop.
Start trading $LIT in Wallet in Telegram 🕯
@Lighter_xyz, the protocol powering perpetuals in @wallet_tg, is one of the top onchain trading venues in Web3, with $1B+ in daily volume.
Now, $LIT is available to trade, giving millions of Telegram users access to the utility token behind Wallet’s perpetuals rails.
We’re excited to share the recording of our Q1 Investor Update call.
Thank you to everyone who joined — we’re building Lighter with you, and for you. On to Q2! 🕯️
The valuation gap between onchain perps and TradFi has reached a tipping point.
Forward P/E multiples:
Fintech Median: 32.4x
Legacy Median: 24.3x
$HYPE: 16.7x
$LIT: 2.5x
It’s clear that structural repricing will come for $HYPE and especially $LIT
Beautiful piece by @defi_monk & @RyanWatkins_
Well damn!
Looks like @vnovakovski got added to the Innovation Advisory Committee.
The list includes names like Brian Armstrong, Vlad Tenev, Shayne Coplan, Adena Friedman and Jeff Sprecher
A seat at the table.
Glighter.
https://t.co/qDlvhk1rHP
$LIT: Dimmest Before the Dawn?
Full disclosure: I'm a private investor in Lighter and continue to hold and stake 100% of my $LIT airdrop. Take everything below with that in mind.
Below is my attempt at an honest audit of what I think went wrong and what's quietly working.
Gm.
Regarding $LIT
TLDR;
Bothered. Dehydrated. Distraught. Out of my lane. Distracted. Perishing.
Still holding full, thesis still stands.
Based on glimpses of the timeline coming in it was a good decision to largely refrain from the whole X conversation.
Onwards.