Leandro Gastaldi

Investment. Economics. Politics. Portfolio Manager @BQCapital . The quest for Utopia will eventually lead to Dystopia.

[Leandro Gastaldi @leogas77]

Lots of hype about BEV battery costs. question remains whether costs can remain competitive assuming an industry at scale. https://t.co/1tc1yL5YSj

[Leandro Gastaldi @leogas77]

Why an ANC/DA coalition (if it happens) will solve nothing if there is not a wholesale rethink of macro policy priorities.
https://t.co/cSJxt6tQmf

[Daniel King @DanielKing043]

Nominal GDP growth in SA was just 4% y/y in Q1'24.

The gap between the repo rate and my smoothed measure of growth has never been higher.

Its highly debatable whether this has been the optimal path for monetary policy in South Africa.

[Daniel King @DanielKing043]

The cost of capital in South Africa is too high relative to growth potential, and real private sector investment activity is still 14% below its 2008 peak, 16 years later.

[Leandro Gastaldi @leogas77]

Going to be funny when the DA loses more support from 2019 (% wise) vs the ANC. https://t.co/NAbMZ8YPxu

[Karin Richards @Richards_Karin]

Tony Leon:
The ANC high command genuinely believes they will get 50%+ and all this is just media chit-chat. So even if, by media standards, they do OK by getting to the high 40s, they will be wounded. And a wounded party does not make rational decisions.
~BizNewsTV with @alechogg

[Leandro Gastaldi @leogas77]

Carmakers bet on hybrids as shift to EVs slows https://t.co/Nj8xgcnRFR via @ft

[Leandro Gastaldi @leogas77]

EV Narrative violation
https://t.co/04ZTnfFLj5

[Dan Tsubouchi @Energy_Tidbits]

Bad 2024 for German EV sales, Good 2024 for Hybrid, Petrol, Diesel car sales.

Apr YoY % & YTD Apr 30 YoY %

Total: +19.8%, +7.8%.
BEF: -0.2%, -10.8%
Hybrid: +26.4%, +16.1%
Petrol: +18.6%, +7.5%
Diesel: +28.2%, +9.5%

#Oil will be needed for longer.
#OOTT

[Leandro Gastaldi @leogas77]

@SheDrills Final BOEM ruling is out. https://t.co/Qf6wBpdaOV would be good if TALO IR put out a news release confirming any additional liability.

[Leandro Gastaldi @leogas77]

To be sure, battery technology could still improve, solid state batteries show promise but mass commercialization is probably at least 5 years away.

[Leandro Gastaldi @leogas77]

Lots of hype about BEV battery costs. question remains whether costs can remain competitive assuming an industry at scale. https://t.co/1tc1yL5YSj

[Leandro Gastaldi @leogas77]

But the real issue that implies a BEV penetration ceiling is range anxiety. Not only absolute range but varying range under different climate scenarios. https://t.co/1vNzBU0VQ8

[Leandro Gastaldi @leogas77]

not to mention lengthy charging times. Wealthy households can afford to have BEVs and a "backup" ICE vehicle. Most households cannot afford this.

[Leandro Gastaldi @leogas77]

How do they consciously and morally justify it.

[Leandro Gastaldi @leogas77]

Would love someone to interview all the “green” activists in SA constantly litigating in a country with 40% unemployment while giving China a pass. https://t.co/oU061OBOEG

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

I truly amazes me how many within the green lobby are willing to overlook, minimize, and excuse the ongoing coal expansion in China.

I'm going to rebrand the "China syndrome" as a new form of "Stockholm syndrome."

#EnergyTransition

[Leandro Gastaldi @leogas77]

@WhitburnPaul Indeed.

[Leandro Gastaldi @leogas77]

Every South African should watch at least the last 10mins of this documentary. https://t.co/dfKgiGx6Bq

[Wide Awake Media @wideawake_media]

Climate the Movie: The Cold Truth

The final nail in the coffin for the "human-induced climate change" scam. An absolute MUST-WATCH!

Directed by Martin Durkin (@Martin_Durkin), director of 2007's 'The Great Global Warming Swindle'. Produced by Tom Nelson (@TomANelson).

Please share far and wide!

[Leandro Gastaldi @leogas77]

@SheDrills Reserves value must cover liability 3x , with the shortfall being made up by surety / collateral. But hard to know how BOEM will value reserves , also discount factor for liabilities etc .. I would pencil in an extra $1bn but could be way off .. either way

[Leandro Gastaldi @leogas77]

@SheDrills We did some very rough calcs. Based on 100 active wells , 50 temp capped at $17 ARO per well implies $2.5bn ARO based on BOEM methodology.

[Leandro Gastaldi @leogas77]

@SheDrills The final ruling is due in April as per W&T Offshore IR .. they said they could not quantify at this stage either

[Leandro Gastaldi @leogas77]

@SheDrills Reserves are taken into account but may not be sufficient. The lack of disclosure and information from their IR is frustrating ..

[Leandro Gastaldi @leogas77]

@SheDrills Talos debt is not IG rated , it’s IDR is B? But outlook positive re Fitch. If IG rated they would be the exempt , yes.. so majors and MUR not impacted , I think

[Leandro Gastaldi @leogas77]

@SheDrills Try this .. https://t.co/cbQHvMg8tL