Léon

文系大学生です。
AI / 為替 / 金利 / 株/ 債券関連をツイートしてます。
/ Investor / suit

[Léon @leon_ficc]

トランプ氏の国連演説「合意か壊滅か」直後、原油は急伸→反落。結局Brentは1%安の99.25ドルで引けた。
強硬なレトリックより、ホルムズ海峡再開の可能性・サウジ復旧見通しという供給側の具体情報が価格を動かした。

詳しくは👇
https://t.co/vaAByNQsxD

[Léon @leon_ficc]

ECB理事会メンバーのマクルーフ氏は、エネルギー高が賃金やサービスなどへ波及すれば、ECBは再利上げを迫られるとの見方を示した。
現時点で2次的なインフレ効果は確認されていないが、物価高が定着すれば金融引き締めが強まる可能性がある。

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

After a brief intermission, back to the regularly scheduled programming.

The 10Y Note Yield is back to its highest levels since 2023 and the 30Y Note Yield is up to 5.35%, matching 2007 levels.

Despite numerous intervention attempts by the US Treasury, nothing is working.

It is becoming increasingly clear that the only way to drive yields lower over the short-run would be an end to the Iran War and the ongoing global energy crisis.

However, over the long-run, this is a structural problem, with deficit spending and years of compounding inflation at its core.

The reality is that the era of ultra-low rates that Americans and the world became used to will not return anytime soon.

"Higher for longer" is the new normal.

[Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter]

They keep calling $NVDA a bubble. Its valuation just hit the lowest in more than a decade.

Nvidia now trades at roughly 13 times estimated earnings, down from 65 in 2022, and below the S&P 500 for the first time in over a decade.

The multiple did not fall because the business broke. It fell because earnings grew faster than the stock. A dominant AI franchise this cheap is what fear looks like, not a bubble.

[Léon @leon_ficc]

ロンドンの不動産価格下落は適正価格への再調整の点で重要だ。
高金利や税制変更、海外富裕層の需要減が重なり、資産価格の再評価が進む。世界的な金利上昇が実物資産へ波及する象徴的な動き。

[Rob Moore @robprogressive]

London property prices are crashing and the numbers are shocking

In prime central London, the falls are brutal

Just 15 years ago London was booming & everyone from all over the world was fighting to get property in the capital

Now all the millionaires & billionaires are leaving, prices are crashing, & local businesses are closing down

Mayfair sold prices down 50 to 60% year on year

Kensington & Chelsea down 40 to 50%

Belgravia & Westminster seeing 10%+ yearly drops

London used to be the best property market in the world. Now it’s leading the collapse as it ripples out

Brutal, yes, but prime central London is finally cheap enough to buy

Will you invest or leave the UK like so many others?

[Léon @leon_ficc]

利上げ予測が強まっている

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

TWO-YEAR U.S. TREASURY YIELDS LAST UP 6.63 BASIS POINTS AT 4.843%

[Léon @leon_ficc]

ストレスがかかり始めている

[kristen shaughnessy @kshaughnessy2]

Apollo and Morgan Stanley just did it again.

Third quarter in a row.

Investors asked to pull far more than the funds would pay.

Both capped redemptions at 5%.

[Léon @leon_ficc]

ホルムズ海峡そのものが米・イラン交渉のレバレッジになっているが、まだ交渉は終わっていない。
望み薄ではあるが中国からの制裁が行われるという夢物語をトランプは描いているだろうか。

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

IRAN SAYS IT’S IN NO RUSH TO NEGOTIATE

Iran’s security chief Ali Rezaei says Tehran is “not in a hurry” to negotiate, maintaining a firm stance toward potential talks.

Rezaei said Iran’s conditions have now been finalized and handed to Qatari and Pakistani mediators.

Tehran is effectively waiting for the other side’s response before determining its next move.

[Francesco Sassi @Frank_Stones]

🚨 American "Energy Dominance" is turning inward as Trump weighs a U.S. diesel export ban.

Spurred by record fuel costs and election vulnerabilities, Washington's potential shift toward energy nationalism could upend global trade flows.

Here is the breakdown: 👇🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷🇧🇷🇲🇽🛢️

[Léon @leon_ficc]

ドル円一時158円ですか。
穏やかに円安

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

If Bolsonaro wins the election, the Brazilian Real should quickly go to $/BRL 4.80. It was in the first half of 2022 that $/BRL almost went to my long-standing fair value of 4.50. That faded in H2 2022 as the odds of a Lula victory became insurmountable...
https://t.co/tIBUSIcU9S

[Léon @leon_ficc]

利上げの口実は必要十分。それに合わせて世界各国も金利を引き上げておきたい。
25bpの利上げであれば金融市場も安定したまま推移できるだろうという思惑

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

There's more and more people who think the Fed will hike in October and again in December, i.e. the Fed is in a full-blown hiking cycle. I don't think that's called for given the inflation picture, nor do I think that's politically remotely realistic...
https://t.co/3JBbnvcnnV

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

U.S. DIESEL EXPORT BAN COULD DEEPEN GLOBAL SHORTAGE

A potential U.S. diesel export ban would hit Latin America and Europe hardest, Capital Economics warns.

Higher U.S. exports this year have offset roughly half the global supply losses caused by disruptions in Russia and the Iran war.

A full ban could cut global seaborne diesel supply by another 30%, potentially pushing fuel prices higher worldwide.

[Léon @leon_ficc]

中国の輸出過多は国内需要を引き出せず国外へ依存し貿易摩擦を生む。結局国内での死闘が繰り広げられ崩壊する。

https://t.co/ARR9yPXDRH

[Michael Pettis @michaelxpettis]

Xijing Research Institute dean Zhao Jian: "For years, the conventional wisdom was that China’s economy was held hostage by its real estate sector. Today, Beijing faces a new, equally perilous predicament: an economy dangerously overreliant on exports. The core issue is not that Chinese manufacturing is too competitive, but that this advantage is essentially subsidized by the severe compression of domestic consumption and labor costs. Rebalancing is no longer optional; it is urgent."

Interesting Caixing article. I wouldn't say this is the policymaking consensus yet, but the speed with which similar views have been spreading in public suggests that we may be nearing a turning point in the narrative.
https://t.co/Q2eSxcONum

[Léon @leon_ficc]

ディーゼル輸出禁止は短期的には米国内の供給を増やして価格を下げても、長期的には精製業者の生産縮小を招き、国内外の価格上昇につながる可能性がある。

[Joseph Brusuelas @joebrusuelas]

U.S. Diesel Export Ban

The elimination of 1.67 million barrels per day of diesel exports will create a short-term domestic surplus which will have to then be sold at a discount thus providing short-term pricing relief for U.S. households and talking points for policy actors to claim that they are addressing a growing affordability crisis.

However, once one examines such a policy approach the ill-logic of a diesel export ban is all too easy to spot: a temporary increase in supply following such an export ban will quickly turn into a supply shortage and rising prices.

Because the U.S. exports it surplus production-total production is roughly 5.3 million barrels per day which is above the approximately 3.6 million barrels per day of domestic demand-once that inventory is absorbed by the domestic energy firms would then pull back on production until it reaches the new and lower equilibrium level which of course would result in lost revenues and a probable increase in industry unemployment on the back of that intervention into the marketplace.

An export ban intending to increase supply results in a shortage of not just diesel but also likely gasoline as the crude that was previously dedicated to the production of diesel then needs to be sold resulting in increased exports of raw crude at higher prices.

As a result a bifurcated price structure domestically that would ensue-there are multiple markets within the U.S. with the Gulf Coast seeing a lower price versus higher prices on the West Coast and prices remaining closer to the internationally set price on the East Coast-creating further uncertainty across the economy.

Even with the logistics constraint-the Jones Act-which required all goods transported by water between U.S. ports to be on American owned and staffed ships-being temporarily lifted this will not eliminate the bifurcated price structure that would ensure in the aftermath of such an energy export ban.

Increasing complexity within an antiquated energy infrastructure is in no one’s economic or policy interest.

Second, such a ban would result in the elimination of that 1.67 million in U.S. diesel exports reducing the total global supply by just over 18%.
That will send global prices higher creating conditions in which those costs will be passed along to the production of other goods which the U.S. imports.

Given global supply and inflation dynamics this would result in a negative feedback loop that would result in an already deteriorating international pricing environment that would likely cause global central banks to send policy rates higher than they already are prepared to do.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

US AGENCY OPENS SAFETY PROBE INTO DRIVER ASSISTANCE START-UP https://t.co/RskRW5yHW4 AFTER REPORTS OF FIVE CRASHES AND THREE DEATHS

[The Macro Paper @macropaperr]

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 US 2-year bond yield hits 2.795%, its highest level in 26 months.

Bond market is expecting the Fed to remain hawkish.

[Léon @leon_ficc]

カナダは防衛費を大幅に増額する一方、国内産業基盤と調達能力の不足が課題となっている。外国企業への依存が防衛費増加が国内の技術・雇用・輸出に波及しない。
AI、宇宙・量子技術、北極圏向け監視・通信などを成長分野とし、長期的で予測可能な調達計画と国内企業の高度化が焦点となる。

[Léon @leon_ficc]

FRBがインフレ抑制を優先し引き締め姿勢を維持するとの見方が強まり、米国債利回りとドルへの資金流入を支えている。

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

FED RATE HIKE BOOSTS DOLLAR APPEAL

Standard Chartered says the Fed’s rate hike has removed a key obstacle to buying the dollar, easing concerns that Chair Kevin Warsh would avoid tightening despite pressure from President Trump.

Warsh’s confidence in the U.S. economy also strengthened the case for U.S. yields and investment flows.

The DXY dollar index climbed to an eight-week high of 100.967.

[Léon @leon_ficc]

米30年固定住宅ローン金利は7.12%と2024年5月以来の高水準。国債利回り上昇を受け、購入・借り換え申請は減少し、ARM比率は9.8%に上昇。
中東情勢による原油高も金利を押し上げ、住宅市場を冷やしている。
住宅在庫の増加とクレジットカードローンの消費控えが国内消費にストレスをかけている。

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

Iran has been in negotiations with the U.S. through a Qatari mediator in New York, and communicated its conditions for ending the seven-month war on all fronts, according to regional media reports.

Tehran’s conditions include a halt to what it calls U.S. “acts of aggression,” an end to the naval blockade and economic warfare, and the release of Iranian assets, Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said.