Leon Simons 🌍

Host of Climate Chat | Plain climate science & DATAVIZ | Mission: To Understand and Protect the Home Planet

[Leon Simons 🌍 @LeonSimons8]

I posted this 2 years ago.

After which we experienced 2 years of 1.6°C above the Paris' pre-industrial (1850-1900) baseline.

We expected a big jump in global warming because greenhouse gas emissions keep increasing, aerosols decreased and Earth's Energy Imbalance had doubled.

[Leon Simons 🌍 @LeonSimons8]

This might be the year everything changes, as those who don't count joules and radiative fluxes are too starting to feel the heat from reducing air-pollution.

Many great scientists have tried to inform on this in the past decades (e.g. James Hansen, James Lovelock, Paul Crutzen and Veerabhadran Ramanathan).

Policy makers and media have paid very little attention so far.

This was the reason for me to start using my largely dormant Twitter account 3.5 years ago. To create awareness about rapid warming from rapidly reducing air pollution.

There's mainly been a small crowd of 'climate doomers' and slightly anoyed climate scientists to interact with.

In the past months this changed, as the additional accumulating heat is starting to surface.

My amount of followers has tripled, the graphs we make receive millions of views and media around the world are paying attention.

This is bigger than any one of us. We need specialized scientists to assess what this means for changes to monsoon systems, others that look at how ocean and atmospheric currents (might) change and how that could impact melting ice and sea level rise.

We need politicians, legal experts and social scientists to learn what is at stake and debate the effects of unintentional and intentional emissions on climate, not just health and the environment.

There are no easy choices in this.

How much warming will the world except? And how fast can the rate of warming be until we are unable to adapt?

When will we learn how high our dikes really need to be?

How extreme will droughts get?

How many people will lose their homes and need to move to greener pastures? Be it a locally overflowing refugee camp or to another country?

Will we have the stability of global governance to face these accumulating challenges?

Uncertainties are very large, which might be the main problem.
We don't know how bad it will get, and anyone who tells you one way or another is lying.

The precautionary principle tells us we have the duty to act.
For ourselves, for our children and for strangers we will never meet.

We are the most adaptable species known to ever have existed.

I believe that with a more thorough understanding of our planet, humanity could become a beneficial force to life on Earth.

If we soon aquire collective will to do so.

[Indonesisches Bergwiesel @IBergwiesel]

Now that the month is over, it's time to look at some regional SST series. The Mediterranean had its warmest July on record with a 2.08K anomaly.

My autofit function chose a quadratic trend based on the Bayesian information criterion. Which means acceleration.

[Dan Miller @danmiller999]

Sunday 8/2 at 10am PT on Climate Chat: Just the Beginning: Global Heat & Local Extremes with @LeonSimons8 & Dan Miller. YouTube link:
@drivingmzstacey @radsci @DrJamesEHansen
#ClimateCrisis
https://t.co/MvbwsCFsL1

[Dan Miller @danmiller999]

@LeonSimons8 @drivingmzstacey @radsci @DrJamesEHansen Sunday 8/2 at 10am PT on Climate Chat: Just the Beginning: Global Heat & Local Extremes with @LeonSimons8 & Dan Miller. LinkedIn link:
@drivingmzstacey @radsci @DrJamesEHansen
#ClimateCrisis
https://t.co/vu1fLGiHdT

[Matthew Todd 🌏🔥 @MrMatthewTodd]

. @skynews is doing some good coverage of the increasing wildfires, but it’s important the media stop asking ‘is this the new normal?’.

Scientists are very clear; this is not the new normal, it is going to get hotter and hotter and impacts worse and worse.

The farmers union is talking about the risk to food production and this needs to be urgently highlighted by the media

@TrevorPTweets @SkySarahJane @markaustintv @WilfredFrost @SophyRidgeSky @skygillian @CliveMyrieBBC @bbcnickrobinson @JustinOnWeb @tombradby @lbc @vicderbyshire @Emmabarnett @susannareid100 @IainDale @TomSwarbrick1 @ShelaghFogarty

[Leon Simons 🌍 @LeonSimons8]

Wait for it....

[Prof. Eliot Jacobson @EliotJacobson]

Here are the daily Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomalies (1991-2020 baseline), from 1982 to present. The latest data from July 31th shows an anomaly just under 2.5°C.

It's already the 4th warmest El Nino on record with 3 months of additional heating ahead.

[Leon Simons 🌍 @LeonSimons8]

Anyone denying accelerated global warming should start by explaining how +2 W/m² of increased Absorbed Solar Radiation (from decreased Earth reflectivity) doesn't lead to much faster warming.

I just had to extend my y-axis again, with a new month of NASA CERES satellite data:

[Leon Simons 🌍 @LeonSimons8]

Europe’s Summer of Reckoning Is ‘Just the Beginning’

“2026 is just the beginning,” Professor @jrockstrom added. “It will inevitably get worse. It will get worse and worse and worse to the point where, I’m afraid, we’ll be passing the limits of adaptation.”
@nytimes

[Leon Simons 🌍 @LeonSimons8]

Models don't take into account the reduction of aerosols over western-central Europe and underestimate regional warming by ~0.5 °C!!

And summer warming by ~1.0 °C!

Exacerbated summer European warming not captured by climate models neglecting long-term aerosol changes

📎👇

[Ben Noll @BenNollWeather]

The brand new CanSIPS model run is in, and it has intensified its El Niño forecast yet again.

It now shows a record-breaking El Niño for six months straight, from September to February, peaking just shy of +4˚C in December.

[Self-sufficiency @downshifting___]

Learning to manage in turbulent times is not hard. Start small. Learn how to grow and preserve food, keep poultry, live without a car.
On this account, I give countless tips on becoming more skilled in living modestly.
I am not preaching, just giving you ideas.

[Nahel Belgherze @WxNB_]

Bordeaux, France, has now recorded more days above 40°C in 2026 alone than during the entire 105-year period from 1920 (when observations began) to 2025. This is deeply shocking.

[Zeke Hausfather @hausfath]

2026 El Niño models continue their inexorable march upwards. CanSIPS (which used to be among the cooler ones!) released their August runs today, and now show a Nov/Dec peak of 3.6C (CanESM5) and 4.2C (GEM-NEMO).

For reference, the prior record El Niño peaked at 2.8C.

[Sabine Hossenfelder @skdh]

All the focus on Fauci is burying the more important story, which is that scientists enforcing a common narrative to the detriment of truth has become extremely common. It's a strong case of in-group behavior in academia that, I believe, most of them are not fully aware of.

As @LocasaleLab put it so aptly "the academic system punishes honesty".

And this is the real story: This isn't just about Fauci. Fauci is just an extreme and very visible example in a case that has attracted a lot of public attention. But misleading the public about the status of scientific research has become extremely widespread.

[Leon Simons 🌍 @LeonSimons8]

@Dragias2657201 @hausfath I haven't seen him ever cover the (let alone regional) NASA CERES data, which is the smoking gun.

The annual indicators paper he coauthors excluded the flux data, while it is included in AR6 WG1.

I can respect Zeke's great writing and dataviz skills and still point out flaws.

[Leon Simons 🌍 @LeonSimons8]

@hausfath I'm sorry, but you seem to be wholly uninterested/uncurious to understand the evidence and assessment that lead to the high forcing, global and regional radiative flux changes, energy imbalance and global temperature trend and peaks.

[Climate Dad @ClimateDad77]

We’re going to be hearing the word ‘Unprecedented’ quite a lot, right up to the point we no longer hear anything at all. https://t.co/ypvia7IreF

[Leon Simons 🌍 @LeonSimons8]

What difference a few months make..

We're about to relive 2023-2024, with many surprised by the temperature records being shattered and the associated weather extremes.

The observational evidence shows rapid forcing and Earth's Energy Imbalance increase, as predicted.

[Zeke Hausfather @hausfath]

2027 is now expected to reach 1.7C in my model – exactly where Hansen predicted it would land (albeit in the GISTEMP dataset) back in December 2025:

[Leon Simons 🌍 @LeonSimons8]

US embassies are quite subtle, aren’t they?
Could barely tell which country this one represents.

[Leon Simons 🌍 @LeonSimons8]

Governments solemnly pledge they are up to no good..

[Leon Simons 🌍 @LeonSimons8]

I haven't seen any indication of a notable decreasing of global coal use.

As we see again and again, pledges are completely worthless

[Leon Simons 🌍 @LeonSimons8]

"Current forecast highs of about 47°C in Las Vegas and Phoenix, 50°C in Needles and pushing 54°C in Death Valley?!"
🥵🌡📈

[Ben Noll @BenNollWeather]

The planet's most powerful heat dome will be located over the Desert Southwest on Saturday, with numerous temperature records expected.

Current forecast highs of 116 degrees in Las Vegas, 117 in Phoenix, 122 in Needles and pushing 130 in Death Valley?!