Leslie Brown

[Sina Toossi @SinaToossi]

👇Indeed, one important caveat when assessing reports of rising oil flows through Hormuz's US-backed "southern corridor": not every barrel that gets out necessarily represents a victory for Washington.

Some Iranian sources say that the picture is more complicated: some flows could include Iranian crude mixed into the exports of friendly neighbors such as Iraq, or traffic Tehran permits in exchange for revenue or other concessions that help it better withstand the blockade.

Remember: this is ultimately a contest between two clocks. Iran is trying to minimize the economic damage of the blockade, while Washington is trying to minimize the costs of prolonged disruption in Hormuz.

The irony is that increased oil flows, even through the southern route, could offer something to both sides: relief for energy markets benefiting the US, and, *if* Iran can extract additional revenue or concessions in the process, greater capacity for Tehran to withstand the blockade.

It is therefore in the realm of possibility that each side would tolerate arrangements that also benefit the other, betting that the balance of benefits ultimately favors itself.

That is why the strategic picture is more complicated than simply counting barrels. Tehran’s wager is that it can endure the economic pressure while still preserving enough leverage over Hormuz to make prolonged disruption unsustainable for the US. Washington is betting the opposite. But this is not a zero-sum contest at every turn.

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🇵🇰🇮🇷 Pakistan says it will keep trading with Iran unless the UN orders otherwise...

Foreign Ministry spokesman Tahir Andrabi told a briefing today that Islamabad is under no obligation to observe unilateral American sanctions unless the United Nations imposes them, that bilateral agreements with Tehran stand, and that "there is a desire to expand."

Trade ministers from both countries met this month and reaffirmed a target of lifting annual trade from roughly $3 billion to $10 billion.

Pakistan has separately asked the U.S. Treasury for a $10 billion stabilization facility to shore up its reserves and ease pressure on the rupee.

Islamabad has real leverage here and is using it.

Asim Munir was in Tehran on Monday pushing the mediation Washington needs, and Pakistan is banking on that goodwill while refusing the sanctions regime the same administration is building.

Whether Treasury pays for a mediator who won't enforce the pressure campaign is the question now.

Source: @DropSiteNews / Writer: Daniel

[Stephano🍁Barberis @HelloStephano]

Every ship entering the Great Lakes goes through the Welland Canal, located fully in Canada. There’s no other option. $26.3 billion of US trade depends on it. Would be a shame if tolls skyrocketed or it was transit-taxed heavily…

Thank you for your attention to this matter.

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🇰🇼 A Kuwaiti tanker was hit above the waterline in the Strait of Hormuz

The Joint Maritime Information Center confirms the Al Salam II was struck on August 25 while transiting eastbound, with Omani Maritime Security Centre confirmation following.

The hit landed just above the waterline, opening a small hole and starting a fire the crew put out themselves.

All hands are safe, no environmental impact was reported, and a tug is expected.

The advisory keeps the regional threat level at SEVERE and describes drone overflight, targeted surveillance of merchant ships and VHF hailing continuing across key transit lanes.

Traffic is running in single digits in both directions.

CENTCOM declared the lanes clear today, and the JMIC is telling mariners what the last 48 hours actually looked like.

Source: UKMTO / Writer: Daniel

[Clinton Desveaux @ClintonDesveaux]

Almost every ocean ship entering the Great Lakes goes through the Welland Canal. Eight locks, all of it in Ontario. There is no other route.. The biggest beneficiaries are Ohio, Michigan and Indiana - we need to increase the levy substantially

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: The Trump administration has now officially rejected every Iranian demand to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Trump no longer interested in reviving the MoU and demanding more hardline terms or a change of demands, per WSJ / Times of Israel.

Meanwhile, a senior Iranian official says the US "should know that no proposal outside the framework of understanding will be accepted," rejecting Trump's demand for a change of the demands.

Trump is no longer prepared to accept the previous MoU terms after feeling that the Iranians "burned" him repeatedly at the last minute.

[Brett Erickson @BrettErickson28]

Man… I am just SHOCKED that Iran does not want to become an American vassal state… 🙄

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump may not actually be trying to solve the Iran crisis right now. According to Trita Parsi, the more likely strategy is to keep it quiet.

No major diplomacy. No major escalation. No Iran headlines dominating American politics before the midterms.

Parsi argues that Washington’s new sanctions may therefore be deliberately limited: enough pressure to look aggressive, but not enough to provoke the Iranian retaliation the administration knows could follow.

The problem is that this only postpones the underlying conflict.

Iran still refuses to return to an agreement that leaves Lebanon out, while Israel continues pushing deeper into Lebanon and testing American red lines.

And Parsi believes one red line matters in particular: Beirut.

If Israel strikes Beirut, he expects Iran to respond directly, especially as Tehran accumulates more reasons to counter-escalate.

Then there is the blockade.

Parsi argues that as long as Washington maintains a naval blockade on Iran, the war has not actually ended.

Without a deal to lift it, the conflict will keep oscillating between diplomacy, economic warfare and renewed military confrontation.

Which is why he is not ruling out another U.S.-Iran war after the midterms.

Not because it makes strategic sense.

But because, as the last round already demonstrated, wars do not always begin because someone has found a convincing path to victory.

Sometimes they begin because nobody found a way out.

@tparsi

[Leslie Brown @lesmasoodb]

@Polymarket Stealing a puppet governments oil reserves is not a "deal" it's theft🤨

[Leslie Brown @lesmasoodb]

@MarioNawfal The only Country that has ever threatened Canada and went to war with Canada is ... The United States🤨🤷‍♂️

[Leslie Brown @lesmasoodb]

@RyanRozbiani Oops! 😬

[Ryan Rozbiani @RyanRozbiani]

Trump: The Hormuz is Open

Iran 30 Minutes Later: Two explosions in the Strait of Hormuz due to an Iranian attack on a ship.

Actions speak louder than words

[Leslie Brown @lesmasoodb]

@philippilk Well, even a broken clock can be right twice a day🤷‍♂️

[Philip Pilkington @philippilk]

The diesel market is going to crack. Any day now. 🛢️

[Aaron Rupar @atrupar]

White House official Peter Navarro agrees with Steve Bannon that Canada is now a "wholly owned subsidiary of the Chinese Communist Party"

"Vancouver is now big Hong Kong," Navarro says

[Heather Exner-Pirot @ExnerPirot]

Canada posted its first current account surplus in four years, led by strong gains in goods exports, including energy products.

Some of you are overly pessimistic about the US trade war; some of you are overly pessimistic about Canada’s ability to build and develop resources. Let me tell you that Canada will produce and export more potash, uranium, copper, oil, natural gas and gold next year and in the years following. It’s baked in already. The only question is how much global market share we will gain.

[Jiggly News 🇨🇦 @JigglyPants44]

😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

[Douglas Macgregor @DougAMacgregor]

BREAKING: Iran strikes tanker attempting to navigate the Strait of Hormuz.

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🚨🇬🇧🇮🇱 British PM Andy Burnham is being warned that tougher UK sanctions on Israel could risk triggering a trade clash with Trump...

The news comes as Burnham prepares “robust” measures to target goods and services linked to Israeli settlements in the West Bank, with more than 140 Labour MPs backing tougher action.

Some Labour figures fear Trump may retaliate with tariffs or other trade penalties, potentially putting UK-U.S. relations under strain ahead of the PM's first meeting with Trump next month.

Why should tougher sanctions on ISRAEL necessitate an AMERICAN response of any kind?!

Source: GB News / Writers: Mhedi, Michael

[Leslie Brown @lesmasoodb]

@MarioNawfal Delusional hopium, Israel has never made any attempt to live in peace with it's neighbours let alone the Palestinians it is ethnically cleansing from Gaza and the West Bank🤦‍♂️