lesser fool

Algo Trader // Accidental Buddhist // Composer in a former life

[lesser fool @lesser_fool]

$TWO

[lesser fool @lesser_fool]

@Merridew__ If you’re looking for a credible catalyst that would spook dip buyers, how about $200 oil later this year?

[lesser fool @lesser_fool]

@taobanker Trade in your Herman Miller for an exercise ball. It’s literally in the name

[lesser fool @lesser_fool]

@tradingchartftw @Vaelis_X Not clear enough, you need way more lines bro

[lesser fool @lesser_fool]

@Crussian17 Im focusing on Holmgren’s BMI

[lesser fool @lesser_fool]

@DangerousThinkg Was news to me that we have a capitalist economic system

[lesser fool @lesser_fool]

@DeanO_Lytics Caruso 8/14
Harper + Castle 2/13

massive 18 pt differential there you have to expect will even out over the course of the series?

[lesser fool @lesser_fool]

@DeanO_Lytics - Castle’s 11 TOs prove the Spurs need Fox

But if we’re playing the “what-if” game OKC is in bigger trouble imo bc Caruso 8-14 from 3 was the flukiest outlier performance from that game

[lesser fool @lesser_fool]

@417Hyp @DeanO_Lytics He’s making this point about the difficulty of measuring individual defensive stats

[lesser fool @lesser_fool]

@BowTiedLobster I do have that trade on but not in size. I think it’s riskier than my naked shorts. But that’s quibbling. Convex oil calls vs JETS + cruises shorts are close r/r imo, with the latter benefiting from a recession vs Oil being capped by one

[lesser fool @lesser_fool]

@BowTiedLobster Oh we certainly haven’t seen demand destruction yet. And yes I think it’s obvious we see much higher oil. But it is a naturally mean-reverting asset so it’s hard for me to view it as a total home run. I don’t think any long is a home run here because of demand destruction

[lesser fool @lesser_fool]

@BowTiedLobster There’s just not a lot of juice there… I legit think I can ride cruises to bankruptcy and with relatively minimal risk. And no one has to be an expert to see that imo

[lesser fool @lesser_fool]

@BowTiedLobster You don’t have a view on cruises, but you have strong views about the timelines with the Strait. Please consider how fucked cruises would be if we maintain ~$150 average oil for 2 years

[lesser fool @lesser_fool]

@BowTiedLobster Fair enough—more accurately I would say I want to target the thesis with the pocket of the market where I see truly unbounded downside (and like I said initially, it’s also a plus that general AI momentum isn’t a reasonably upside risk vs much of the market)

[lesser fool @lesser_fool]

@BowTiedLobster I don’t agree that i want trade “the factor” necessarily. I just want to own asymmetric risk/reward. People will still buy goods, so trucking/shipping isn’t going away completely. There’s a realm of possibility that many cruise-lovers never buy another cruise again. CCL could die

[lesser fool @lesser_fool]

@BowTiedLobster Well I’ve addressed it from the get go. The shock will be distributed in an unpredictable ratio of oil price + demand destruction. Do you think Trucking and Shipping will experience demand destruction as intensely as more discretionary products like travel?

[lesser fool @lesser_fool]

@BowTiedLobster Ok, I concede that JETS does not have cruises. Hence why I like JETS + CCL. If we add the other two cruise stocks that’s fine, but I don’t think that’s a dealbreaker either way in this trade. Now what? Still not enough diversification? My goal is to target my thesis directly here

[lesser fool @lesser_fool]

@BowTiedLobster JETS has 56 individual holdings… if you genuinely didn’t understand the ETF we can just move on. Otherwise I don’t understand this hill you’re dying on

[lesser fool @lesser_fool]

@BowTiedLobster Ok man, you’ve made it clear you have no intention of being helpful. FWIW you’re a fun follow but I guess I can’t ask you any specifics without it getting confrontationally pedantic

[lesser fool @lesser_fool]

@BowTiedLobster I included the ticker attachment and everything so I would be clear about this. $JETS ~= “all airlines”

https://t.co/LtUdyHBJQT

[lesser fool @lesser_fool]

@BowTiedLobster $JETS is -7% YTD. You think that counts as priced in? I think that pricing is consistent with the rest of the market’s *temporary* supply shock assessment. Terminally higher oil should absolutely crush airlines and cruises, no? First their margins, then their demand

[lesser fool @lesser_fool]

@BowTiedLobster Are you not aware that JETS is primarily an airlines ETF?