lesser fool

Algo Trader // Accidental Buddhist // Composer in a former life

[lesser fool @lesser_fool]

$TWO

[lesser fool @lesser_fool]

@goosecaps @taobanker I actually look forward to these Saturdays. I even blame myself less for the initial procrastination—I’m just saving the task for my big fun errand day

[lesser fool @lesser_fool]

@passedpawn I’m with you if you think Trump, Hegseth, etc truly call the shots. If they can’t even capture the Federal Reserve are they really capable of controlling the US military? Trump decides to bomb Iran, military strategists tell him it’s a bad idea, but they do it anyway?

[lesser fool @lesser_fool]

@passedpawn We don’t have an engine to consult here, but our Venezuela mission seemed to hint that Chinese oil imports is a primary military concern. What else would you need to see to change your mind?

[lesser fool @lesser_fool]

@passedpawn So when Magnus loses his knight, Occam’s Razor says he blundered?

[lesser fool @lesser_fool]

@passedpawn I know Trump is vocal but my understanding is that military strategists actually run this shit so I’ve never gotten past the idea that this blockade surprised us in any meaningful way

[lesser fool @lesser_fool]

@passedpawn Have you entertained the hypo that this is all a proxy war with China and thus our goal is to kneecap the strait indefinitely?

[lesser fool @lesser_fool]

@goodalexander @guy__76 ntm Elon is top 5 dem enemy

[lesser fool @lesser_fool]

@toiletkingcap Yes all smart people force a nuanced spectrum of probabilities within a dynamical system into a binary statement that fits in a tweet and makes brain feel relaxed ☺️

[lesser fool @lesser_fool]

@DrewPavlou The corruption was partly why it was social suicide

[lesser fool @lesser_fool]

@goodalexander that’s not simple at all

[lesser fool @lesser_fool]

@tleilax___ what are you even talking about

1. Netanyahu is surely losing
2. Trump is not up for election

[YachtLifeRadio @YachtLifeRadio]

@annvandersteel I work in private aviation. We are swamped with Private jets leaving the region past 48hrs. Not just wealthy expats and diplomats, royals leaving undercover. This started on Monday night for us, meaning they knew way before the announcements today 👁️

[lesser fool @lesser_fool]

@biteme_suckas Wanted to follow him but all I see is him calling people retards and making broad claims. What does “right” look like?

I don’t understand what “capturing the initiative” means in a war without clear goals or even a clear direct enemy?

[lesser fool @lesser_fool]

@YoungGroypClips “WHO ELSE IS DOING THIS?”

idk, Kim Kardashian, trans, etc

[lesser fool @lesser_fool]

@SamKovX $300

[lesser fool @lesser_fool]

$34 -> $26

Back in 2020 you could sell stock picks for the rest of your life off of one trade like this

[lesser fool @lesser_fool]

@dalibali2 Short $JETS

[claw @wit_tomahawk]

Back in 2022/2023, I was full time in real estate selling DH Horton concrete prisons to the normiecattle. If you called Zillow in PHX on a house in my zip code, there was a high likelihood I would get to flirt with your wife behind your back that friday touring a house.

Back in 2022 (even during 120° summer) I would receive HUNDREDS of phone calls a week. About 20% losers without money. Almost half were illegals who sometimes showed up to a showing smelling like a rat covered in shit and thought you could buy a house with a VISA. But some of those were solid leads—people who are stupid enough to think $3500 /month for a toasty gray floor whitewash shitbox in a sand-colored favela was somehow going to improve their life. Those watery-eyed Disney Adults who would flop out of a Honda Odyssey with a useless Rocket Mortgage pre-approval gripped tightly in their grimy paws. On average during off season I probably did about 15 house showing appointments a week.

I had my fun, made some money along the way, and got out of the industry. But I get calls every now and again from former clients and colleagues. Usually shooting the shit. Just had one call me earlier this evening asking what I think about selling his house I bought him (VA loan, great floor plan, very affordable). Military wants him to relocate so he's been on the market for 100+ days. Price cut down to the lowest in his area (300s). Open house every weekend. Nothing. He's panicking and asking me what to do.

I get a wild hair and text my old head-taker (MLO who won loan officer of the year twice in a row) to see what's shaking. Turns out he had to sell his boat last month and considering his house. He used to sling refis and HELOCs like a drug mule does fent on Indian School and the 17. Guy made close to a million a year 2020-2023. You wouldn't know it because he's a few bad more months before going broke.

I do not see a future where real estate doesn't crash. There's simply too many illiquid deranged boomers who are drunk on decades of cheap money, shitty margaritas and will either be forced into selling or die like a 3% interest rate pharoah. I worked with too many of them (I have hundreds of stories) of Deborahs and Chucks, Dales and Sues, Bobs and Jeanies who are do not understand that Zoomers cannot afford the lifestyle inflation nor want their decrepit upranches.

Remember; every day 10,000 boomers hit 65. Then 5500 die daily. Consider that real estate supply is already high, demand is already low and this is before a wave of Margaritaville Shitboxes hit the market at delusional prices. If Meemaw and Peepaw are calling the shots they are going to drag their feet until their heels turn to hamburger—even if nobody puts an offer in. That means buyers will wait longer and make them bleed because a $4800 a month payment at 7+% interest rate is not feasible for an Amazon Prime Ring Doorbell goyserf family. And if they get put in a house or croak the kids always want cash out. They'll price cut until they sell, which means tanking the whole neighborhood's value.

Enjoy the show 🍿

[lesser fool @lesser_fool]

Translation: we will attack Iran after the midterms

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

🚨 TRUMP: WE WILL NOT BE ATTACKING IRAN AT ANY TIME PRIOR TO MIDTERM ELECTIONS TO BE HELD IN UNITED STATES ON NOVEMBER 3RD