北冥有鲲

美股观察、AI 工具、vibe coding
场内纳指 · 标普 ETF跟踪:

[北冥有鲲 @letsfree2024]

@jltyycm 这一堆东西，品控怎么做

[北冥有鲲 @letsfree2024]

民主党找不出人了？

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

BREAKING: Kamala Harris is laying the groundwork for a third presidential run, per WSJ

[北冥有鲲 @letsfree2024]

@BullTheoryio 强盗拿劫持航线感觉筹码已经不够用了，要连网线，数据中心也要劫持。

[北冥有鲲 @letsfree2024]

关税战导致外资撤离中国，这才是对中国经济的根本影响，中国本土的制造业出口可以在别国找个跳板继续卖，但外资，跑了就是跑了。

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

JAPANESE COMPANIES ARE LEAVING CHINA IN RECORD NUMBERS

The number of Japanese companies operating in China down 22% since 2024 to its lowest level since Teikoku Databank started tracking in 2010.

4,137 Japanese companies completely withdrew from China between 2024 and 2026, while only 1,221 new ones went in.

Teikoku says Japanese business in China has shifted from an expansion phase to a restructuring phase, and expects the exit to continue.

Three main reasons:

1. US tariffs have hit revenue for 60% of Japanese manufacturers in China.

2. China's slowing economy, collapsing property prices and rising labour costs.

3. A year-long diplomatic freeze over Taiwan has led China to restrict critical mineral exports to Japan.

For the first time, Guangzhou's major travel expo ahead of China's National Day had no Japanese exhibitors.

Japan isn't completely abandoning China. It's reducing its dependence on China and shifting supply chains toward India, Thailand and Southeast Asia.

[北冥有鲲 @letsfree2024]

普京这是使劲扇他这个川儿子巴掌啊

[北冥有鲲 @letsfree2024]

这又吃错了什么💊，有段时间没提这事了

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

BREAKING: 🇺🇸🇺🇦 President Trump calls for Zelensky to be replaced, saying Ukraine needs a new leader who can make a peace deal with Russia.

[北冥有鲲 @letsfree2024]

https://t.co/ZznAfTdib4

[北冥有鲲 @letsfree2024]

如果你觉得 $PEP 跌了很多，想要抄底，一定要听一听

[北冥有鲲 @letsfree2024]

https://t.co/ITGbmQoqW4

[北冥有鲲 @letsfree2024]

https://t.co/ITGbmQoqW4

[北冥有鲲 @letsfree2024]

离谱的是他把 $ORCL 都列为做模型的，oracle既不自己做模型，也没有投资做模型的公司，顶多算个neocloud

[北冥有鲲 @letsfree2024]

不要看别人喊单什么就买什么，他们分别离一年最高点： $OKLO -80%, $IREN -53%, $APLD −52%, $CRWV −43%, $ORCL −56%, $NOW −26%， $TSLA −23%

[Mike Investing @MrMikeInvesting]

The $NVDA CEO, Jensen Huang just revealed the entire 5 layer stack that the AI super cycle is constructed on…

These 5 layers include:

1. Energy ~ $CEG, $VST, $OKLO, $BE, $GEV
2. Chips & Computing ~ $NVDA, $AMD, $AVGO, $MU, $SNDK
3. Cloud & Data Centers ~ $NBIS, $IREN, $CRWV, $APLD, $DOCN
4. AI Models ~ $MSFT, $GOOGL, $META, $AMZN, $ORCL
5. Applications ~ $PLTR, $TSLA, $NOW, $SNOW, $CRM

These companies quite literally built AI from the ground up; which is exactly why they will continue to see major upside.

Bookmark this to look back on later…

[北冥有鲲 @letsfree2024]

场内的纳指与标普ETF溢价率都已经10起步， 最高的纳指ETF国泰已经高达16%， 等于已经计价了27年的价格

[北冥有鲲 @letsfree2024]

@AZED063 @op7418 @bot claude

[北冥有鲲 @letsfree2024]

📺 完整解读视频
https://t.co/pyowO7RFTo

[北冥有鲲 @letsfree2024]

$MU 毛利率 87%，比 $NVDA 还高，我为什么还是把它当周期股

📊 毛利率高得少见
$MU 这一季调整后毛利率 87%
上一轮景气最好是 2018 财年，单季最高约 61%
$NVDA 最近一季 75%
一个行业要是好几年都有这么高的毛利率，别的厂商肯定也想扩产，进来分一杯羹

🧱 护城河没那么深
市场对扩产消息很敏感
10/2 日经报道东芝要把 AI 用的硬盘产能翻倍
当天 $WDC 跌 10.2%
当天 $STX 跌 10.2%
要是三星、SK海力士哪家宣布大幅扩产，$MU 往下震荡两成，我觉得也不奇怪
扩产不一定在财报里宣布，平时的扩产新闻要多留意

💰 估值：便宜，是因为怕到顶
$MU 2025 财年调整后每股收益 8.29 美元
2026 财年是 75.52 美元
是上一年的 9 倍多
股价约是 2025 年初的 12.4 倍
把下一季每股收益指引乘以 4，约 153 美元
对应市盈率大约 7 倍
市盈率这么低，我的理解是，市场还是拿周期股的眼光看它
担心利润到了顶，没人想在顶上追

🤖 AI Agent 会让这一轮周期更长
$META 的 Muse、Grok Bot、OpenAI 的 Dots，都是在云端给每个用户配一台电脑 ，内存、存储、CPU 的需求肯定还要不少上涨空间
CEO 在电话会上说，看不到供应什么时候能赶上需求
这一点我认同

周期再长，也还是周期
从产品和技术护城河看，$MU 逃不过周期股的宿命
投资 $MU，最后还是得把它当周期股来对待
别指望它变成 $NVDA 那样的平台公司

#北冥聊美股 #美光 #美股

[Chandu Thota @ChanduThota]

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[北冥有鲲 @letsfree2024]

纳指创下历史新高

[北冥有鲲 @letsfree2024]

@MichaelHXHX 特斯拉总部搬了没意义，厂搬不了

[北冥有鲲 @letsfree2024]

https://t.co/vDuvUcoDlR

[北冥有鲲 @letsfree2024]

@tart_egg25188 @Ai20777 摸都摸不硬，还要关注大小吗😂