Leverage69420

[Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand]

After reflection, this new narrative by Palantir is probably much more consequential than people may assume.

Palantir is basically being the canary in the coal mine announcing the death of two major assumptions propping up the US economy right now:

1) that AI labs will be able to extract significant economic rent - as opposed to AI models being mere commodities

2) that other countries can accept structural dependency on US technology and services without pushing back on sovereignty concerns

Why are Palantir specifically starting to be vocal about this?

First off, major middle-powers, even US “allies”, are one by one showing them the door. In June, France announced that the DGSI - its domestic intelligence agency, which had relied on Palantir since the 2015 Paris attacks - would replace it with French firm ChapsVision, with Prime Minister Lecornu explaining (https://t.co/SLhEGprBZC) that France “cannot accept new strategic dependencies in the digital sphere” and shouldn't depend on the goodwill of companies “capable of turning off the tap.”

Germany moved even earlier: its domestic intelligence service, the BfV, also selected ChapsVision over Palantir (https://t.co/pDZVj4SYUY), and the German military has said it will no longer use Palantir at all. Then, just this week, Spain instructed state-controlled companies - including strategic firms like Telefónica, Indra and Navantia - to avoid signing any new contracts with Palantir (https://t.co/0ik4UAFrT7).

Even in the UK, Washington's most loyal vassal, the NHS's £330 million data contract with Palantir is under review following parliamentary pressure (https://t.co/uJl6g4BMsW), and London Mayor Sadiq Khan blocked a proposed £50 million Palantir contract with the Metropolitan Police.

Palantir making a lot of noise around them caring about sovereignty makes a lot of sense: it's damage control since they keep being told they're a sovereignty risk.

I doubt it will work - because it's true: they are a sovereignty risk - but the fact that they feel the need to be vocal around this tells you where the wind is blowing: they're not shaping the narrative, they're reacting to one they're losing.

What they're saying against closed-source AI (basically a broadside attack on OpenAI and Anthropic), is again highly self-serving. Palantir's sudden love of open-weight AI models conveniently coincides with them launching 2 days before a partnership with Nvidia to sell exactly that: open models models (NVIDIA's Nemotron) in sovereign environments.

So it's essentially a product launch.

It doesn't make what they're saying wrong: it is factual that the value proposition of closed-source AI labs looks increasingly unsustainable. I mean: you're paying 10X the price of Chinese open-source AI models for something that's not really better (or just marginally) and on top of that you have zero control over your data, or the models themselves.

When Palantir says that "the architecture that maximally preserves sovereignty is one that enables institutions to own their tribal knowledge, and to compound it as alpha," they're right. I'd add that this also means you shouldn't trust Palantir either with that "tribal knowledge"... they obviously left this part out 😉

When you take a step back, these two things have major implications on many other US companies.

SpaceX - which just went public at the largest IPO valuation in history - is one clear example as I describe in my latest article on the new space race with China (https://t.co/JK3ELAyEVO).

If countries like France concluded with Palantir that they couldn't depend on a company “capable of turning off the tap” when it’s merely analyzing their data, what should they conclude about a company that aims to literally control their entire connectivity - at one man's whim, from space?

What percentage of SpaceX's crazy market cap is based on the assumption that foreign governments will not do to Starlink what they're currently doing to Palantir?

And SpaceX - or Palantir - aren't alone: a significant proportion of the top US tech giants, who rose in a world where no one questioned American technological hegemony, now face an environment that's much less conducive to the kind of lock-in their business models - and valuations - depend on.

When you pair this with the fact that it increasingly looks like the US made a wrong bet with closed-source AI - an extremely expensive wrong bet - the picture that emerges is of a country that bet its economic future on two things - proprietary AI and captive allies - and is losing both at the same time.

And to compound the problem, it doesn't help that the official narrative of the US government - via the voice of Jacob Helberg, the Under-Secretary of State (https://t.co/Z1rotPl9Ee) - is to be vocally opposed to "AI Sovereignty": essentially telling everyone "you know what, your worst fears are real, our tech companies are really out to undermine your sovereignty."

Read Helberg's post (the one I linked) and put yourself in the shoes of - say - a European or Asian leader and ask yourself how you'd react to being told that building your own AI capabilities is "marching in perfect formation into the past," that your pursuit of sovereignty is really just "synchronized mediocrity," and that your only path to the future runs through American technology.

If it was me in a position of power, I'd read this as a massive wakeup call: when another country's official position is that your sovereignty is a problem, history says you're about to need it.

So yes, it looks like - unexpectedly - Palantir, of all companies, is being quite the canary in the big tech mine. Yes they obviously do this for self-serving and cynical purpose, and yes they're of course also very much part of the problem and not the solution. But it doesn't make them wrong: sometimes it takes a vulture to tell you something is dying.

[Vivek Sen @Vivek4real_]

PALMER LUCKEY MIGHT BE THE ONLY BILLIONAIRE IN SILICON VALLEY WILLING TO SAY THIS OUT LOUD.

[Leverage69420 @leverage69420]

@PlisskenPatriot

[Leverage69420 @leverage69420]

Barron already trying to get his lick back for Poatan

#UFCWhiteHouse

[J @JoeHallenbeck17]

T H E F U C K I S A K I L O M E T E R ! ! !

[Dovy🔌 @DovySimuMMA]

Mom I threw up

#UFCWhiteHouse

[Leverage69420 @leverage69420]

@MartinShkreli All while marketing it as buying a contract

[Leverage69420 @leverage69420]

@rorypiant Does it mean the token will continue to plummet?

[Leverage69420 @leverage69420]

@Mano_East @BladeoftheS

[BladeoftheSun @BladeoftheS]

It's virtual PC's that you have to rent from these guys for extortionate prices after they have made normal PC's unaffordable.

If you haven't guessed yet.

[Leverage69420 @leverage69420]

@Cernovich Space gamblers*

[Geiger Capital @Geiger_Capital]

Kevin Warsh refreshing bond yields right now

[Greg Price @greg_price11]

Be Zohran Mamdani solving a fiscal crisis:

> Take $8 billion bailout from the state
> Defer pension payments and saddle future generations with debt.
> Briefly solve the problem which will immedietly become a $7B deficit next fiscal year
> Make a smily TikTok video with a lot of jump cuts.
> Declare that socialism has won
> Get praised by retarded supporters as a governing genius.

[Possum Reviews @ReviewsPossum]

"We weren't allowed to trick voters with a deceitfully phrased measure which was put on the ballot illegally after violating the state's rule that proposed amendments must be posted in circuit clerk offices for 90 days beforehand, so we have to kill you now."

[Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag]

My guest today is Paul Tudor Jones (@ptj_official), one of the greatest macro traders of all time.

He correctly predicted the 1987 stock market crash and shorted the Japanese bubble in 1990. For over 40 years, his flagship fund has had a negative correlation to the S&P 500. 100% of his returns are alpha.

He says today's market has so many similarities to 2000, "the easiest bear market I've ever seen in my whole life."

He makes the case for going long dollar-yen, why Bitcoin beats gold as an inflation hedge, and why he was wrong about Warren Buffett.

But what I'll remember most from this conversation is Paul's zest for life. He's 71 and still wakes at 2:30 every morning to trade the London open. He works out for two hours a day. He walks with his wife every evening. He travels the country chasing peak spring and peak fall. He's so excited about the songs picked for his funeral that he wishes he could be there to hear them.

Paul has lived five lifetimes in one. He's one of the most entertaining and interesting people I've met, and the conversation will leave you searching to be as passionate about what you do as he is about what he does.

Enjoy!

Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
1:00 The Kindest Thing
13:19 Trading vs. Investing
17:33 Lessons from Warren Buffet
22:24 The Existential Risks of AI
29:54 The Nature of Trading
31:46 Bitcoin
35:55 Bubbles
42:08 A Day in the Life of PTJ
46:00 Information Overload
47:07 Passion for Markets
50:49 The Robin Hood Foundation
54:18 The Workless World
56:03 Journalism
1:00:00 Principal Components of a Great Life
1:05:06 Kill Them With Kindness

[Leverage69420 @leverage69420]

Instead of fed posting we should start calling it SPLC posting

[PsyopAnime @PsyopAnime]

BREAKING

[Coffee House Stocks @CoffeeStocksGuy]

https://t.co/1oOpSkqYUf

[Claudia Tenney @claudiatenney]

.@AriFleischer please stop saying Texas started this redistricting mess. New York started it. After an extreme gerrymander by NY Dems in 2022, completely ignoring the Independent Commission they created in 2014, the Court of Appeals in NY restored fairness. Then, the Dems sued again in 2024 to overturn the Court of Appeals decision. They bullied 2 Court of Appeals judges off the bench and forced new Dem. favorable maps and the Reps lost 4 seats. In 2026 they AGAiN sued to gerrymander and eliminate the Rep seat in Staten Island and were looking for even more power. The US Supreme Court stopped the nonsense for now. The Dems plan to gerrymander again in 2028. They will stop at nothing and do not care about the people or fairness. This is a bloodsport. The Republicans need to wake up and recognize this fact.

Sign the Save America Act into law for starters. And do whatever it takes within the law to ensure that the citizens of this country win.