Lewis Smith

[Lewis Smith @lewismsmith1]

@walletzerosan Are you going? Few have seen both the Bees and the Wasps in the same season!

[Lewis Smith @lewismsmith1]

@TomWatersEcon @_OliverStanley I suspect 40% may overstate it. Feels like you've taken 2m numerator from 'benefit unit' count in statxplore vs ?5.2m? 'households' count from FRS? But numerator likely to include multiple claims within single 'household' and/or some addresses/tenancies outside survey scope?

[Lewis Smith @lewismsmith1]

@TomWatersEcon I don’t think the ‘reduce if the new 30th percentile is lower’ step is used in the post covid version. Which would explain Reading, but not Blaenau?

[Lewis Smith @lewismsmith1]

@film_quiz All the Heinekens to be digitally replaced by

[Lewis Smith @lewismsmith1]

@film_quiz @samuelkimmusic The YouTube algorithm is getting good, it spotted the ?inadvertent? omission and suggested Big Hero 6 as next video

[Lewis Smith @lewismsmith1]

@stevewebb1 Isn’t the £66 the same as the £400 EBSS and ONS already said it would not affect CPI? This decision is the price cap and support for business EBRS? https://t.co/KsBAPt0JmZ

[Lewis Smith @lewismsmith1]

@tonywilsonIES @tom_stewart_ @PollardTom @Helen_Barnard @LWpaulbivand Maybe also some upward pressure recently from ‘Mixed Age Couple’ changes preventing people in mid-60s moving on to Pension Credit? And upward pressure since 2010 from SPa equalisation and SPa-66?

[Lewis Smith @lewismsmith1]

@stevewebb1 ?maybe 50 because SPa now 66 but have to still use 49 for COD if the deduction still has to be pegged more closely to occ pen rules/calculations?

[Lewis Smith @lewismsmith1]

@karlhandscomb @PaulieTandoori Maybe also some claimants - not just partners -in unconditional ‘HB only’ cases with sporadic or v low earnings would go through the LCW route under UC?

[Lewis Smith @lewismsmith1]

@PaulieTandoori @karlhandscomb Maybe also significant numbers who in legacy system would be partner in ESA, TC or HB claim but show up in their own right in ‘people on UC’ stats?

[Lewis Smith @lewismsmith1]

@film_quiz Sounded like it could be Vin Diesel - was he in a post-apocalyptic one called ?Babylon 2000?

[Lewis Smith @lewismsmith1]

@djmgaffneyw4 I think there is something around property size - LOndon more likely to be squeezed into property that is smaller than the LHA rooms, Wales likely to have ‘extra’ bedroom above LHA calculation (to some extent same points you and others have suggested but maybe quantifiable?)

[Lewis Smith @lewismsmith1]

@stevewebb1 DWP ‘benefit expenditure & caseload’ tables have it averaging 40k in the 1980s for ‘non contributory only Category D’ , but not sure if this might exclude lots getting it as a top up?

[Lewis Smith @lewismsmith1]

@djmgaffneyw4 I suspect that there could be a small overlap at the moment where people moving from HB to UC get an extra two weeks of ‘run-on’ HB but doubt it is material

[Lewis Smith @lewismsmith1]

@AreciboTV Mark Zuckerberg, did you insinuate my lighthouse.... https://t.co/Tk8hxWSHur

[Lewis Smith @lewismsmith1]

@AreciboTV @ verylargeTV is already taken https://t.co/K7iGe3rbtx

[Lewis Smith @lewismsmith1]

@LWpaulbivand @jdportes @billwells_1 @StrongerInNos I think Paul’s point about grossing quarterly would allow for single months still to look volatile. The 16+ population - series MGSL - is quite steady and if you chart the quarterly or annual change you can kind of see it is linearly interpolating between the mid-year figures

[Lewis Smith @lewismsmith1]

@jdportes @StrongerInNos Is the apparent increase in uk born down to the LFS being grossed up to a fixed (or if not fixed, inflexible) view of the total population? Vol 1 of the user guide says the population is grossed up to match projected population and the total pop in ons spreadsheet is quite linear

[Lewis Smith @lewismsmith1]

@film_quiz IP infringement or guerilla marketing sighted in Edinburgh