Limeinhalf - O Jardineiro

Nihil nobis inattingibile est ||| Finanças | Macro | Política | Geopolítica Estratégica | Inteligência | Natureza Humana.

[Limeinhalf - O Jardineiro @limeinhalf]

“Be water, my friend.”
— Bruce Lee

[Tatiana Stanovaya @Stanovaya]

Some thoughts on the current situation around the war

📌Putin appears to believe that Russia is winning and will ultimately win the war. In his view, taking Donbas is only a matter of time. He seems ready to pay almost any price to achieve that goal because he sees it as an existential issue for Russia. Those who expect that increasing pressure on Putin will create more room for negotiations are likely to be disappointed. More pressure is more likely to lead to further radicalisation in Moscow and a stronger military response.

📌Economic difficulties, which are becoming more serious, together with battlefield losses and the fuel crisis, are unlikely to make Putin reconsider his approach to the war. Instead, they are more likely to harden his position, encourage further escalation, and increase the risk of scenarios that many have previously dismissed as bluff.

📌There is a growing gap between the political leadership and the rest of the country, particularly the business community, which increasingly wants the war to end. At present, there is little room for internal debate or for questioning Putin’s course. Instead, the leadership appears committed to further escalation, with no clear limits. This is likely to make these internal contradictions more acute over time.

📌Ukrainian strikes inside Russia are strengthening anti-Ukrainian and anti-Western sentiment, making it easier for the Kremlin to justify further escalation. At the same time, Russian public opinion is divided. Some argue that the war should end roughly along the current front line, while others call for far more extreme measures, including the destruction of Kyiv, the use of nuclear weapons, and mass violence against Ukrainians. A prolonged war of attrition will further strengthen both camps.

📌The year 2026 appears to be a particularly important stage in the war. For the first time, the cumulative effects of the conflict are having a visible impact on Russia’s domestic situation, raising questions about the state’s ability to continue functioning in the same way. This weakens Putin politically, but it also appears to make him more radical, contributing to a growing sense among parts of the Moscow elite that a catastrophe may be approaching.

📌There is a strong and growing expectation that significant changes lie ahead. There is little understanding on what form they will take, who will drive them, or how fast they may begin. However, there is an increasingly widespread belief that, if the current war of attrition continues, Russia’s resources will come under growing strain, while the economy remains constrained and growing numbers of businesses become unviable.

The overall conclusion is that two processes are unfolding at the same time: increasing external escalation and deepening internal contradictions. The West should be prepared for unexpected developments.

[Limeinhalf - O Jardineiro @limeinhalf]

@drewcrawford_ @LogInfra

[Philosophy Quotes @philosophors]

“Nothing is so necessary for a young man as the company of intelligent women.”

— Leo Tolstoy

[Limeinhalf - O Jardineiro @limeinhalf]

@Trotes936897 Ambipar?? Não sabia que estavam nessa linha de negócios.

[Dalai Lama @DalaiLama]

Finding Inner Peace - His Holiness the Dalai Lama on inner peace — anger is its real destroyer, rooted in self-centeredness. The antidote — remember your existence depends on others. Compassion isn't just kind, it's realistic. Video originally recorded on November 4, 2017.

[Limeinhalf - O Jardineiro @limeinhalf]

@CentralDireitaB Nada como @polling_data pra agregar todas…

[Limeinhalf - O Jardineiro @limeinhalf]

@DefenseLrca Você tem notícias da Akaer?

[Limeinhalf - O Jardineiro @limeinhalf]

Eu não sei se a @policiafederal e a @AnatelGovBR percebem que a grande maioria das chamadas de spam são originadas na rede da @ClaroBrasil … Por que será?

#spam #fightspam @GSI_oficial

[Limeinhalf - O Jardineiro @limeinhalf]

@LogInfra U.S. Postal Service
https://t.co/j1uvh9VscD

[Limeinhalf - O Jardineiro @limeinhalf]

@Gabrielmg_OB95 Vem com transferência de tecnologia ou acordo de industrialização local? Ou é só uma compra simples?

[Limeinhalf - O Jardineiro @limeinhalf]

@VECERTRadar @GSI_oficial @gestaogovbr @casacivilbr

[Limeinhalf - O Jardineiro @limeinhalf]

@thinkdefence Have you tried @NotebookLM ?

[Dalai Lama @DalaiLama]

Hygiene of Emotion - His Holiness the Dalai Lama explains why emotional hygiene is just as essential as physical hygiene — and why teaching children about the mind, compassion, and nonviolence from an early age is the key to creating a happier, more peaceful world. Video originally recorded November 28, 2019.

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

The Brazilian Real has just gone below $/BRL 5.00. What's happening is the perfect storm for the Real. The US and Iran are negotiating, which buoys risk appetite. But oil prices are still elevated, which lifts Brazil's terms of trade. We're going to 4.50.
https://t.co/6FPSc1Z02s

[Limeinhalf - O Jardineiro @limeinhalf]

@PauloFilho_90 Já perguntaram pro @Grok por que o Japão entrou na Segunda Guerra Mundial? Acho que é alguma coisa relacionada com embargo de petróleo…

[Limeinhalf - O Jardineiro @limeinhalf]

@RobertoReis Pô, em estúdio e tudo mais! Top! Parabéns.

[Limeinhalf - O Jardineiro @limeinhalf]

@tom_doerr I guess it’s because OpenAI was supposed to be open source…

[Council on Foreign Relations @CFR_org]

“This is a book about intelligence,” writes @scmallaby in The Infinity Machine.

In his new book, Mallaby, an international economics expert at CFR, profiles Demis Hassabis—the tech visionary behind Google DeepMind.

“On the one hand, it’s a portrait of a remarkable human, a chess prodigy, a Nobel laureate, a polymathic thinker. On the other hand, it tells the story of his quest to build remarkable machines: systems that are intuitive, creative, and even original.”
https://t.co/lJEYT6OZDa

[Limeinhalf - O Jardineiro @limeinhalf]

@timecaptales @RobertoReis

[Limeinhalf - O Jardineiro @limeinhalf]

@RobertoReis O picolé de chuchu tem chances Robertão?