🐔 e/acc

truth machine @polymarket

[🐔 e/acc @linglingfarmer]

on bell curve meme:

this meme we've always seen is suggesting that overthinking actually leads to adverse effects.. it's most clearly and frequently applied in the context of 'getting on the train' in our space

we might question, isn't overthinking bad? for financial/investment matters, we need to analyze this and that, considering factors, the market, news, etc. yes, those are the pieces of information used for crystallizing our decisions (but how much or in what way is another story).

however, the problem with midcurve is that if all that thinking isn't truly of quality, filled with biases and narrow perspectives, full of beliefs in trying to predict market directions, including many midcurve theses that lack clear inferential support, overwhelmed by emotional biases, etc

..

and when we really look into it, people with similar thoughts/behaviors and ways of thinking are mostly not geniuses (many are well aware of whether they are 'gigabrain' or not, i believe deep down we all know) hence choosing information, envisioning the future, seeing new perspectives, having unique ways of thinking becomes difficult.. when there's no differentiation, everything goes in the same direction, instantly becoming part of the majority, representing a large segment of the market population.. and when that happens, of course, in the financial world, the majority will not make money or even lose money, always. This is the reason

now let's look at the other two remaining groups, which are the left curve & right curve

..

the left curve group, to put it bluntly and simply, are the slow thinkers with low iq, not very insightful, dull and muddled, with below-standard literacy. but because of their lack of overthinking, this group doesn't try to outsmart the market. they don't act all-knowing, don't play hard, but live in the present. they're clueless about news, can't interpret/don't get it, only know that oh, they say it's good, so they join in. even if they get hurt, they still learn from the actual experiences, unlike the midcurve filled with 'should haves' and waiting for the 'perfect moment', leading to analysis paralysis and not getting around to doing anything

plus, there aren't many people who don't think at all like that (i myself don't understand how much or how they do it because i'm also midcurve). and when there are not many, there's a higher chance that the market will favor the upside of the right curve group.

for the right curve, this group doesn't need much explanation. it's straightforward, geniuses who see things most people can't, have skills and a way of thinking that seems to be right from the start in a way that's not easy to explain. it's their nature, the smart people, to outperform

but everything above is not the point of this writing. actually, when viewed from another angle, this meme may convey another aspect we haven't considered. this meme is semi-serious, but we may be thinking too seriously and one-sidedly.

in reality, the left curve may not learn anything at all because they just follow what they hear, a little bit of something and they hop on the ride first. even if they gain a lot/easily, they also lose it just as easily; aping in without studying the project/token information might prevent gradual accumulation of various knowledge for the future. the chance of losing capital is high because they often buy out of greed, FOMO, fearing missing out.

and when the 'beginner luck' runs out, the left curve doesn't have the tools or mindset to survive in the market long term, eventually having to leave the market (but the few who are talked about become a case of survivorship bias). moreover, they miss various retroactive airdrops and when leaving the market (or not being attentive and serious about the market enough), they end up with no experience. so, they don't get anywhere. when another wave comes, the pico top of the bull market returns, this group pops up again, gaining and losing as before.

..

as for the unfortunate midcurve, in reality, they might be the group that could develop into the right curve. because this group tends to be obsessive, thinks a lot, but even if they think too much, they still think (while the left curve doesn't think much). thinking a lot means being serious about the market, spending time with it, and seriousness reflects having a stake or interest in the market. they gain experience; this group may not catch the ride in time but still preserves their capital, progressing bit by bit. even if they miss out as mentioned, the feedback loop; will lead to gradual development (whether slow or fast is another matter, each person is different, plus they must not give up too soon)

ps, however, the left curve can gradually develop into the right curve, and not all midcurves will evolve into the right curve. In the end, most will remain stagnant and eventually leave the market

[X Freeze @XFreeze]

Grok Build is way more powerful than most people realize. SpaceXAI has quietly shipped a ridiculous number of features in a very short time that most people don’t even know exist. Here are the biggest ones you should know about

[Rivelino @alpharivelino]

What you do = who you are

[Purely Green @worldclick56]

Life always find a way 🌼🌸

[Deep Psychology @DeepPsycho_HQ]

7 ways to spot Low-IQ people:

1. They worship celebrities

[🐔 e/acc @linglingfarmer]

@AerodromeFi cant withdraw usdt0/usdg on ink mate, no pool to do so

[Polymarket Traders @PolymarketTrade]

https://t.co/Yk52qtampq

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

CLARITY Act: How many Senators will actually vote "Yea"?

House passed: 294-134 (78 Democrats)

Senate Banking: 15-9 (saved by D's Alsobrooks & Gallego)

Republicans hold 53 Senate seats. Cloture takes 60.
At least 7 Democrats must cross party lines

The main bottleneck is ethics

A key bloc of 7 Democrats (Alsobrooks, Gallego, Cortez Masto, Warner, Warnock, Booker, Hickenlooper) says the latest text "falls short" - demanding strict crypto rules for officials and the Trump family. Republicans offer a weak version with a 2029 sunset clause

Pressure is massive: BlackRock, Fidelity, Schwab, and Goldman are publicly calling for a vote

Yet Majority Leader John Thune is packing the calendar with sanctions and judges before the August 8 recess. The window is closing fast

Polymarket (new market - highly volatile):

Above 55 - 52%
Above 58 - 48%
Above 60 - 34%

The market is pricing in a real chance they won't even hit 60

For context: the narrow GENIUS Act (stablecoins only) passed 68-30

CLARITY is full market structure - a completely different hurdle

Crucial Polymarket detail: only the vote on final passage counts. If cloture fails and no final vote happens before 2027, ALL strikes resolve to NO

What do you think?

[🐔 e/acc @linglingfarmer]

🙌🏻

[Ti Morse @ti_morse]

My first interview with @sama, Co-Founder of @OpenAI.

0:04 How to start a startup
3:30 Trusting exponentials
4:57 Operating in chaotic environments
6:12 Learning to enjoy painful experiences
8:03 Creating abundant intelligence
11:15 Keeping core suppliers on OpenAI’s timelines
12:10 Invention of the joint-stock company
15:30 The best CEOs aren’t sociopaths
16:46 We are in the singularity
18:09 AI authoritarianism vs liberty
19:24 Texting 300-400 people a day
20:32 Having a small number of deep beliefs about the future
21:41 Critical path
22:25 Thinking about what’s next
23:38 Getting on planes in marginal situations
28:16 Buying lots of compute
30:51 Ambition
34:00 Google shouldn’t have let OpenAI survive
37:54 Having his life shot through a cannon after the launch of ChatGPT
41:20 The growth of Codex
42:02 The Death Star tweet
44:46 Status games and desire to be useful
47:57 Not being ambitious enough on compute investments
50:26 Execution
51:45 Ask for what you want
54:11 First few weeks of OpenAI
55:15 Shutting down Sora to focus on Codex
57:44 Designing beautiful products
59:01 Getting addicted to TikTok
1:01:03 Inventing a new device
1:02:53 Try to get better at your strengths
1:05:57 Masa is an n of 1
1:07:11 Real trends vs fake trends

[🐔 e/acc @linglingfarmer]

@Evan_ss6 interesting

[🐔 e/acc @linglingfarmer]

@maynkydvv wrong, it’s mutually exclusive

[🐔 e/acc @linglingfarmer]

new fav term: 'statistically improbable'

[🐔 e/acc @linglingfarmer]

@Evan_ss6 i eat it

study, lessons in there

[Chamath Palihapitiya @chamath]

https://t.co/vPrPSUjTJG

[Sterling Crispin 🕊️ @sterlingcrispin]

I was driving home from the store today and imagining life remapped to a single day.

Both my parents are gone now and I've been reflecting more on mortality. It feels so unreal and intangible. It's 4:30 pm for me, I still have time left but it's finite. It all goes by so fast

[🐔 e/acc @linglingfarmer]

@PlasmaThailand @Plasma wen physical card 🙌🏻

[🐔 e/acc @linglingfarmer]

@gemchange_ltd im sure vi’s theme couldnt beat soviet connection

[🐔 e/acc @linglingfarmer]

@BrokieTrades richest brokie

[🐔 e/acc @linglingfarmer]

@PlasmaThailand @Plasma physical card มันมายังครับ ของ plasma

[🐔 e/acc @linglingfarmer]

@SundayBoyInvest @ppppcuddle ไม่พอครับ ต้อง 800 แสนล้าน