You are a taker, not a maker. All you’ve done your whole life is take from the makers of the world.
The zero-sum mindset you have is at the root of so much evil. Once you realize that civilization is not zero-sum and that it is about making far more than one consumes, then it becomes obvious that the path to prosperity for all is just let the makers make.
Regarding Tesla, the reality is that I have been given nothing.
However, if I lead Tesla to become the most valuable company in the world by far and it stays that way for 5 years, shareholders voted to award me 12% of what is built. Anyone who wants to come along for the ride can buy Tesla stock.
If Tesla “merely” becomes a $1.999 trillion dollar company, I get nothing. This is a great deal for shareholders, which is why they voted so overwhelmingly to approve this, for which I am immensely grateful.
And they did so by a margin far more than you won your political seat.
The best investors don’t win by knowing more than others.
They win by controlling their emotions better than others.
Investing is a mental game first, a financial game second.
In May of 2017, I presented at the Ira Sohn conference for the second time. My first pick, in 2016, was $AMZN. In 2017, my pick was $TSLA at a split adjusted price today of ~$22.
https://t.co/ufpQvLyfDu
The comparison I made at that time was that Tesla was like Apple and the Model 3/Y was its iPhone moment.
I thought this quarters’ results were a bit dumped on but I had the opposite reaction.
I think Tesla’s iPhone moment is now at hand:
1) high interest rates today generally diminish demand. Supply chain inflation increases cogs which generally results in higher end prices. Taken together, these phenomenon usually drive lower consumer demand for most companies. But Tesla cut prices and demand grew. While these price cuts eat into their short term margins, higher demand allowed them to make huge profits (because of volume). The takeaway for me is to rationally keep cutting prices to saturate the world with their product. You rarely get a chance to build a monopoly. When given it, take it. Sacrifice GMs in the short term to drive worldwide saturation in the long term - especially if you can be profitable doing it!
2) cogs are now flattening and margins will start going back up as supply chain inflation eases. And as rates eventually start going lower, demand will naturally go up all else equal. Tesla should then be able to flow as much of these to the bottom line but if they keep cutting prices, demand will go nuts while total profitability also still goes up - that’s a unique place to be.
3) they’ve struck deals to share their charging network with other OEMs and now are also in discussions to license FSD. This is Tesla becoming a true platform company that has their “apps” (Model S/3/X/Y) but also enables other “apps”. And a take rate on 3rd party apps is a very lucrative business (see Apple).
4) when Apple ran this similar playbook towards global domination, they took GMs down about 15-20% for a few years between 2012-2014. And they kept them there until 2020 or so and then brought them back up along with prices. The outcome was a $3T company.
Tesla’s upper bound seems still unwritten even while they’ve essentially told us they are going to run the same play.