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Over the next week, $354M worth of tokens (per @Tokenomist_ai ) are hitting the market across top projects.
Unlocks can crush token prices, unless a project is built to survive them.
But for smart investors, they can also be an opportunity!
Most unlocks = sell pressure, but some teams have fared better than others and strong projects have rebounded beyond the initial drop:
High sell pressure impact + recovery:
- @Aptos ($APT): –11% in 7 days post-June 12 unlock (~$54.3M), recovered from $4.80 to $5.10 (27 Jul)
- @LayerZero_Core ($ZRO): –15.5% in 2 days post-July 20 unlock (~$492M), since rebounded from $1.82 to $1.97 (27 Jul)
- @zksync ($ZK): 14% drop in 3 days post-June 17 unlock ($45.8M), now up from $0.051 to $0.059 (27 Jul)
High Sell pressure:
- @PiCoreTeam ($PI): –9.8% in 3 days post-July 4 unlock (~$152M), stuck around $0.44 vs. $0.49 pre-unlock
- @VenomFoundation ($VENOM): –9.5% in 2 days post-July 25 unlock (~$11M) - tbf, 2 days is not long to see if it recovers.
Minimal sell pressure impact:
@AvailProject ($AVAIL): ~$19M unlocked on July 23 and the price only dipped 1.2% over the last 4 days - currently $0.0193 (27 Jul)
So why have some done better than others?
Take the Avail token, the unlock happened on July 23 releasing 972.85M tokens (~38.2% of circulating, ~$19M) and the price barely flinched in comparison.
In part could be timing. Ethereum has increased ~57% during the last month pushing towards a $4k breakout, a major resistance level that could lift the entire altcoin market if cleared (we all keep praying). Strong infra. projects like Avail are likely to follow the same momentum.
But it’s just not timing. AVAIL has a strong cap table: $75M raised from Dragonfly, Founders Fund, Mirana, Cyber Fund amongst others, who are long-term ecosystem investors rather than short-term dumpers.
Add in their strong ecosystem growth this year with the likes of Lens Chain, Sophon, Space and Time, Lumia amongst others, combined with key product upgrades to their tech stack including TurboDA (pre conf. ~250ms), EnigmaDA (fully encrypted DA for institutions), and Avail Nexus upgrade that streamlines interop and liquidity movement, provides real long-term utility for the Avail token which investors believe in.
While most unlocks signal weakness, AVAIL suggests a different playbook. When a project has strong fundamentals and aligned long-term stakeholders, even a massive supply release can be absorbed without major sell pressure.
And even when strong projects do suffer short-term price dips, it’s often credit to great execution from their product, marketing, and commercial teams that drives recovery. That’s what we’re seeing with the best infra. teams mentioned above.
Smart investors know the opportunity is in the post-unlock shakeout.
Avail looks like one to watch!
What other projects do you think could weather unlocks well? or who will be the unexpected crash? Drop your thoughts👇