El Primo

Going fishing, soon

[El Primo @logicalself]

What happened to the KOSPI doomers? You an idiot if you think the Korean plunge protection team did not convene over the weekend $EWY

[El Primo @logicalself]

👀

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang: We might reveal some announcements tomorrow

[El Primo @logicalself]

👀

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: President Trump says the Trump Administration might buy equity stakes in US AI companies and that he will host a meeting with AI executives as soon as next week, per Reuters.

[El Primo @logicalself]

@ConsensusGurus You guys never consider graduates from the MidCap 400. That should always be your first pick.

[El Primo @logicalself]

@AustinsStocks “Hey, my dad owns pepsi, McDonalds, home depot and Low’s . Yes, he is down 30% YTD but he survived the crash of June 2026”

[El Primo @logicalself]

@volisdead KOSPI has mechanics to stop selloffs. $EWY sold off way more than the KOSPI can between Friday and Monday. High probability of a huge bounce on $MU and $SNDK.

[El Primo @logicalself]

@Dallasvlla9901 This was an insane call by the way. You timed it perfectly lol

[El Primo @logicalself]

@DextersTheName Did you listen sir?

[El Primo @logicalself]

@DextersTheName 👍

[TheValueist @TheValueist]

$MRVL $BE $FLEX $ALAB The $26 Trillion Portfolio Manager That Everyone Calls Passive
Contributing Analysts Rob Du Boff (ESG)
(Bloomberg Intelligence) -- Passive investing has a dirty little secret: somebody is still making the decisions. Roughly $26 trillion is tied to the S&P 500, where Friday's announcement will determine which stocks receive Wall Street's most valuable golden ticket. Thirty-six companies appear to qualify for entry, while more than 130 existing members no longer meet the index's market-cap hurdle. Yet only a handful of changes are expected because the committee can override the rulebook whenever it chooses. The world's largest index may also be its most influential active manager. (06/04/26)

1. Over $26 Trillion in S&P 500 Linked Products Return to Top

Additions to the S&P 500 Index matter because they can spark billions of dollars of buying pressure as passive S&P 500 trackers with trillions in assets seek to replicate the index. According to S&P Dow Jones, about $13 trillion of assets were in products tracking the S&P 500 at the end of 2024. Adjusting for index performance and fund flows, we calculate that the figure has likely risen to at least $17.4 trillion (including derivatives). An additional $9 trillion may be held by funds benchmarked to the index, bringing the total to nearly $26.5 trillion.

Changes will be officially announced on June 5, and index-tracking products will have to obtain exposure to any newly added stocks around market close to June 19. Stock weightings will be determined by their market capitalization from June 10. (06/04/26)

Cohorts of Products in the S&P 500 Universe

Website

2. Buying Pressure Follows Addition to S&P 500 Return to Top

Among the 36 stocks that appear to meet all inclusion criteria, even smaller firms would face billions of dollars in buying pressure if added to the index. Our calculations are based on an estimate of nearly $12.1 trillion in assets in S&P 500-tracking funds, which likely understates buying pressure because it excludes exposure to derivatives and active managers. Marvell's theoretical $48 billion in buying pressure is the largest and would be 1,700% of average daily trading volume, but other smaller stocks would have even higher relative pressure. Fifteen stocks from the S&P MidCap 400 would face comparatively low buying pressure because they'd be hit by simultaneous selling from the $470 billion in funds tracking that index.

There may be stocks beyond the 36 on our list that are technically eligible for inclusion. (06/04/26)

Est. Buying From Theoretical SPX Inclusion (Excel)

Excel

3. At Least 36 Stocks Meet S&P 500 Criteria Return to Top

At least 36 stocks currently appear to meet inclusion criteria. The top candidates ranked by size are Marvell, Bloom Energy, Flex, Astera, Ferguson, Alnylam and Twilio. Flex and Twilio are upgrade-eligible S&P 400 members. The rest are Bloomberg 500 Index (B500) members, which has looser inclusion criteria and often adds stocks before the S&P 500. We track an additional 56 stocks that are nearly eligible but fail due to their domiciles, market caps, profitability, or other metrics. Credo gets an honorable mention despite being in zero indices.

Just because a stock meets the criteria doesn't mean it will be added; it's a committee decision, and stocks must be removed to make room for new ones. The committee pays attention to the index's sector balance and may opt against a move involving the largest eligible stocks. (06/04/26)

Potential S&P 500 Inclusions (Click for Link)

Table

4. Over 130 Stocks That Could Be Removed From S&P 500 Return to Top

Figuring out which stocks could be removed from the S&P 500 isn't as simple as looking at the inclusion or exclusion criteria, because final decisions rest with the index committee. Over 130 stocks in the index have market caps below the $22.7 billion inclusion threshold, while many have had recent issues with profitability. Some 64 stocks are below $15 billion in market cap, and 19 have a market cap in the single digits. The smallest stocks facing potential exclusion are led by Conagra, Campbell's, Pool Corp and Molson Coors. But the index committee explicitly aims to limit the S&P 500's turnover and can override mechanical rules to keep a company in it. That's why there are typically only a few changes at a time.

The committee's level of discretion means that even an S&P 500 Index fund isn't truly "passive." (06/04/26)

Candidates for Removal From S&P 500 (Link To Tool)

Table

5. Governance Woes Not Enough to Keep Reddit Out of S&P Return to Top
Contributing Analysts Rob Du Boff (ESG)
Voting Rights of Potential S&P 500 Additions

Data
Reddit is the only likely candidate for inclusion in the S&P 500 this quarter with limited shareholder rights due to a dual-share structure. S&P Dow Jones dropped its voting-rights restrictions in April 2023, creating a backlog of names that would have been eligible but for dual-class shares, with 2025 additions including Carvana, DoorDash, and Robinhood. Reddit founder Steve Huffman controls 76% of votes via irrevocable proxy, despite only a 3% economic ownership. Low voting rights may have little share price impact, but it could also amplify financial or operational underperformance due to poor governance.

Reddit shareholder unease with this structure is reflected in the fact 20% of non-insiders voted against the board chair, and over 60% voted against the other members of the governance committee. (06/04/26)

6. Relevant Dates and Requirements to Be Added to S&P 500 Index Return to Top

Criteria for S&P 500 Inclusion

Website
The changes to the S&P 500 will be based on market values from the reference date, which is the Wednesday before the second Friday of the month. That means the market cap and respective relevant values are based on the close of business on June 10. The index changes go into effect after the close of business on June 19 (the third Friday of June). Funds tracking the index will have to update their exposure to these new stocks and away from the removals before the market opens on June 22. In the vast majority of funds, the trades will be done on June 19, at or around the close of trading.

Eligibility for the index is based on data from the last business day of the month before the rebalance date -- May 29 in this most recent case. (06/04/26)

7. Database Shows Trillions in S&P 500 Trackers Return to Top

Funds on Bloomberg Tracking S&P 500

Excel
About $7.5 trillion in passive assets track the S&P 500, while actively managed funds with $3.4 trillion use the index as a benchmark, according to Bloomberg's fund database. The vast majority of the passive assets are in funds tracking the S&P 500 directly. There's also $1.7 trillion in products with alternative S&P 500 weighting schemes or subsets, $93 billion in leveraged ETFs and $122 billion in products that use derivatives and options overlays as key parts of their strategies.

Bloomberg's fund database doesn't fully represent all assets tied to the S&P 500, given its incomplete coverage of pooled vehicles such as SMAs and CITs. However, the figures still underscore the potential magnitude of buying or selling pressure caused by index inclusion or removal. (06/04/26)

To contact the analyst for this research:
James Seyffart at [email protected]

[El Primo @logicalself]

@DaikokuXX This can see 100 soon. Too many people missed Dell.

[El Primo @logicalself]

@DaikokuXX Nice play!

[El Primo @logicalself]

@DaikokuXX I’d advice caution. $HPE’s server business is more clunky than $DELL and $SMCI. Big risk of a good quarter with a poor guidance, or even a bad quarter with an equally poor guidance. Go look at what happened in Q4. If o was in calls, i’d also hedge with PUTS.

NFA

[El Primo @logicalself]

@jokeexpert @TradingThomas3 Actually, you are right. Jensen speaks pre-show on Monday. So market will have the info by Monday open.

[El Primo @logicalself]

@jokeexpert @TradingThomas3 Computex June 2, Taiwan. So you are looking at wednesday for market reaction.

[El Primo @logicalself]

@JaguarAnalytics The courts have blocked the strike. Stop doom-posting.

[El Primo @logicalself]

@Dallasvlla9901 @EgorBezel @BankofVol I was seeing the future lol

[El Primo @logicalself]

@oldwonder2121 @TrendSpider He gets it

[El Primo @logicalself]

@Dallasvlla9901 Monster ER. Algo games

[El Primo @logicalself]

@undrvalue You are wrong. ASML does not have THAT issue. It gets the “Europoor” discount, similar to Korean and Japanese stocks.

[El Primo @logicalself]

@Dallasvlla9901 @EgorBezel Yes man, send it