L2L

🎾 #ATP #data #matchup #valuebet

[L2L @longdeligne]

🤔 Est-il utile de regarder les matches pour bien parier (en pré) au 🎾 ? #thread

➡️ SELON MOI, et SAUF SI vous êtes expert 🎾 & betting (2-3% des parieurs tennis ?), regarder les matches n'est pas un facteur important pour gagner à LT.

Voici pourquoi.

1/12

[DRX @drxtennis]

C’EST PARTI 🎾

Analyse & bets sur la carte de cette nuit, je vous attends 👊🏻

https://t.co/Qb5EuO06ys

[L2L @longdeligne]

La 🇧🇪 qu'on aime 🤐

[International Tennis Integrity Agency @itia_tennis]

Seven Belgian tennis players have been suspended from the sport after admitting to breaches of the Tennis Anti-Corruption Program.

[Nishi @nishikoripicks]

On Monday, I sent a pick over here, that Nishioka would beat Khachanov. I gave it a 50% prob., so I saw value in the 2.40 odds.

But the Pinnacle closing odds were 2.56 😠, Khachanov won and I, along with those who followed me, lost money.

Was it then a bad bet? Read this if you want to know my take on it:

First of all, when I assign a probability of 50% to a match, it doesn't mean that I expect the match to be even. It means that, out of 1000 or however many times they play, I think approximately half of the matches will be won by one player and the other half by the other.

Even if Nishioka had lost 6-1, 6-2, we cannot affirm that the bet was bad. Because, what if, out of those hypothetically 1000 times the match is played, Nishioka had won 600, despite having lost easily this time?

Similarly, if Nishioka had won the match, we also cannot affirm that the bet was good. Because he could have lost 800 out of the 1000 times they would have played.

That said, how do we assess whether a bet has been good or bad? It is not the final result, at all. The most “scientific” way is to see what the closing odds are.

I made the bet at 2.40, I spread it, and the bettors who followed me drove the prices down to 2.20. But a few hours later, the price started to bounce back and ended at 2.56 just before the start of the match. That is, the market did not agree with my probability estimate, it went against me, what suggested the bet had a negative expected value.

In light of this info, can we say it was a bad bet? Well, probably yes, but we cannot affirm it. Although on average the market is sovereign and is right (I repeat, on average) sometimes it can have a different view than yours and be wrong. The problem is that in only one bet, this cannot be known.

My credentials in the 4417 bets recorded on Pyckio (https://t.co/JqKrRtCoZi) to date, at Pinnacle odds, are a Yield of 6.4% in 4417 picks. The average odds of my bets are 2.60. This means that, on average, the real true odds of my bets are 2.60 / (1+0.064)-1 = 2.443. That is, on average, I have placed bets at 2.60 when the real price, the true odds, was 2.443.

What do I mean by this? Firstly, that we can never know a priori whether a bet is well or poorly made. The actual result does not determine whether this is so because variance is everything in a bet. The value that a bettor is able to provide is seen in the long run. But it is true that the estimates of someone who has demonstrated the ability to provide value in the past will be more reliable than those who have not.

Secondly, that the closing price (2.56) is well above the price at which the bet was made, implies that it probably was not a good bet. In the long run, if we make hundreds of bets with this difference between the real odds and the closing odds, the negative result is almost guaranteed. So it is obvious that we all want the closing odds to be lower than our bet prices. There will be times when we can be convinced of the value of the bet, even in these situations. But in the long run, it is not good business.

In summary, if the market does not accompany you, you will lose money in the long run. But I also don't want to be a CLV (closing line value) fanatic. There may be times when your bet has value even if you go against the herd. Of course, we will never know that. In my personal experience, I am sometimes convinced of the value in one bet, even if the market is against me. I repit, "sometimes". You cannot be right if this happens repeatedly.

So try to beat the closing odds always, it will be better for you in the long run. But CLV is not everything, especially in the sport of Tennis. In this article written at @Pinnacle by Joseph Buchdahl @12Xpert (https://t.co/I0msV0lvPq), he analyzed the market and suggested that in Tennis, the closing odds may not be as efficient as in other sports.

[L2L @longdeligne]

🐐🏐🐐🏐🐐

[L2L @longdeligne]

Break Point (la série) : L'association Ferreira - Tiafoe est un (beau) clin d'oeil à l'histoire : le sudafricain blanc baigné dans l'apartheid qui coach l'ex-pauvre immigré sierra-léonais. Et la différence de tempérament ne gâche rien : la discipline sudaf VS le déjanté US.

[L2L @longdeligne]

En gros, elle se met une trop grosse pression, je trouve, et cette pression se retourne probablement contre elle à chaque contre-performance. Or en tennis, et c'est dit aussi dans la série, je crois, tu dois apprendre à perdre... car tu perds souvent, même quand tu joues bien.

[L2L @longdeligne]

Un truc m'avait marqué dans la série Break Point de Netflix : MS semble se fixer des objectifs très élevés en termes de résultats. Sans évidemment connaître l'ensemble des problèmes qu'elle traverse, je ne suis pas trop surpris de la situation actuelle. Force et courage à elle !

[L'Équipe @lequipe]

La Grecque de 28 ans Maria Sakkari, battue cette nuit au premier tour de l'US Open, a déclaré qu'elle envisageait de prendre une pause dans le tennis après les mauvais résultats de son année 2023. https://t.co/p3qjtbTfZP

[L2L @longdeligne]

@nishikoripicks The physically issue seems a bit weak here as ALL the players are concerned, in september... and january, isn't it ? For the UO, doesn't Djokovic play less than the other players in july/august, and therefore shouldn't he be fitter for the UO ?

[L2L @longdeligne]

@EndlessTennisT Ton meilleur trade de cette première journée ?

[Nishi @nishikoripicks]

1⃣🎾 This thread is about the 1st SET BET in Tennis.

Over the years, I have managed to achieve a 13.7% Yield in 402 1st set bets, always at Pinnacle odds.

Even though the price of these bets on dogs is lower than that of the money line, I like 1st set bets. Here the reasons:

[Le monde de Seb @sebworldtennis]

Allez, on ne s'en lasse pas !
Pour patienter, allons faire un tour avec l'excellent @padamecour à la Benoît Paire Académie. 😂
J'vous jure que je peux le regarder 100 fois de suite.

[L2L @longdeligne]

Pauvre de lui celui qui n'a pas connu cette équipe 🍿😍

[Basket-Infos @Basket_Infos]

Il y a 31 ans la Dream Team débutait son tournoi olympique😍

Les écarts de leurs 8 matchs 😱
+68
+33
+43
+44
+41
+38
+51
+32

[L2L @longdeligne]

@leonolger42 @KrosisL @TennisLegende Je pense qu'il voulait dire que Gaston a de l'expérience en matière de matchs perdus. 🙂

[L2L @longdeligne]

Thread sur les matches truqués en ATP.

[Nishi @nishikoripicks]

Match fixing definitely occurs in Tennis. It's the ideal sport for it. Liquidity is high and players don't even need to arrange anything with their opponents; they can simply lose on purpose. It's easy to miss balls, make errors and not be as intense.

[L2L @longdeligne]

@GG_RightClick @TennisLegende Raison de plus pour être frustré ?

[L2L @longdeligne]

@munestennis Voilà qui a le mérite d'être clair 😅

[L2L @longdeligne]

L'UTS est une bénédiction pour le tennis !

[L2L @longdeligne]

L'UTS est une bénédiction pour le tennis !

[Nishi @nishikoripicks]

Reaching 4,300 picks, with a 6.8% Yield (Pinnacle odds). After a bad 2022, in 2023 I've made a 11.3% Yield in 279 tips so far.

I cannot guarantee profits. You could even lose all your bankroll if you follow me, THIS IS BETTING!! Do not trust any tipster who promises otherwise.