LST

Investment Analyst at Gotham City Research LLC since 2012 Expertise: Discovering new ways of losing money. “Question unchallenged assumptions.”

[LST @LongShortTrader]

The three most dangerous words in finance:

“Guaranteed minimum return”

[Andrew Curran @AndrewCurran_]

OpenAl is offering private-equity firms a guaranteed minimum return of 17.5%, as well as early access to models not yet in public release.

[LST @LongShortTrader]

@Biohazard3737 Would chasing out the Middle Eastern and American visitors make London more affordable?

[LST @LongShortTrader]

@CyrusdeWeck Move!

[LST @LongShortTrader]

“30 year yields look coiled on the 50 year chart #study”

- some chart guy, somewhere

[QE Infinity @StealthQE4]

We’re approaching 20+ year highs on the 30 year bond yield.

I’m sure it’s nothing 😏

[LST @LongShortTrader]

Don’t blame Buffett for your own mistakes…

Man up.

[DEBT SERIOUS @debt_serious]

The amount of damage Buffett has done to thousands of his fans by making them believe they’re good enough to outperform the market, and share out-of-context anecdotes like this, is immeasurable. But hey, at least they have a stock-picking hobby now that makes them happy.

[LST @LongShortTrader]

@LowAlphaHighVol I was with you… until you said moisturisers !!!

[LST @LongShortTrader]

“Plug me into the Matrix.”

- prequel to the Matrix, where humans voluntarily plugged themselves into AI.

[Alec MacGillis @AlecMacGillis]

This is pretty bleak.

[LST @LongShortTrader]

“Money does not buy more sex or more partners. Higher family income had essentially zero correlation with sexual frequency or number of partners. Rich and poor Americans reported very similar sex lives. (This was one of the findings that surprised the researchers.)”

[Hereafter @idyllicmusing]

Increasing sexual frequency in a regular relationship from once a month to once a week delivers a happiness boost equivalent to the happiness gain from a roughly $50,000 annual salary raise.

More sex = monotonically higher happiness: The effect got larger with frequency. Sex 2–3 times a month, weekly, 2–3 times a week, and 4+ times a week all showed positive associations relative to no sex or very rare sex. Having sex at least 4 times a week was linked to a happiness increase roughly half the size of the marriage effect on happiness.

The happiness-maximizing number of sexual partners in the previous year was calculated as one. Zero partners or multiple partners both correlated with LOWER happiness than monogamous frequency with a single partner.

Money does not buy more sex or more partners. Higher family income had essentially zero correlation with sexual frequency or number of partners. Rich and poor Americans reported very similar sex lives. (This was one of the findings that surprised the researchers.)

Married people had significantly more sex than single, divorced, widowed, or separated people. Roughly 90% of married respondents reported exactly one partner in the past year. Marriage itself had one of the LARGEST positive coefficients in the happiness equations.

Typical American frequency was modest. The median person had sex 2–3 times a month. About 25% reported no sex in the previous year (higher among older women). Only about 7% reported 4+ times a week.

Paying for sex or having extramarital sex was associated with LOWER happiness. Homosexuality had no statistically significant effect on happiness in their equations. Highly educated women tended to have fewer partners.

In a time of declining marriage rates, falling sexual frequency among young adults, rising loneliness, and cultural messaging that endless novelty and “options” are the path to fulfillment, the data points the other way. The people reporting the HIGHEST happiness were disproportionately those having consistent sex with exactly one partner.

* This is a correlational pattern across 16,000+ people.

[LST @LongShortTrader]

@nachkari What do you think about 1 cup per day ?

[LST @LongShortTrader]

@nntaleb Do you count sesame seed oil as a seed oil ? Serious question, because: (1) it is a bona fide seed oil and (2) sesame oil is ancient and has been and is consumed by large populations in Africa and Asia.

Or by seed oil, do you mean seed oils invented in the last 100-200 years?

[LST @LongShortTrader]

Given the unfortunate reign of tribalism and polarization, we give thanks to God almighty for uniting us all (albeit briefly) in our reaction to the Tate Bros.

[LST @LongShortTrader]

Andrew Tate, March 2025: “Florida, everyday you don’t arrest me proves you’re clowns talking lies for political points”

Today: Andrew Tate has been arrested in Miami, Florida”

[LST @LongShortTrader]

@ConsensusGurus So can I, but extraordinary claims merit extraordinary evidence

[LST @LongShortTrader]

There were 160 million registered voters in America in 2020.

Question: what does “China freaking hacked 220 million vioter files in 2020” even mean ? Math anyone ?

[LST @LongShortTrader]

@niubi What did Trump used to call Rubio and visa versa? Or Vance ?

[LST @LongShortTrader]

If I make it to 95 years old and function as well as WEB is at 95…

I’ll count that as a win.

[Dynamicmoats @DynamicMoats]

Wow, WEB really sustained himself for so long but age has really caught up with him in the last year

[LST @LongShortTrader]

@mattyryze If you steal billions and donate $300,000 , do the donations matter ?

[LST @LongShortTrader]

UNICEF: “Save a child for only 50 cents a day.”

Olive Garden: “eat unlimited pasta and get fat for only $1.00 a day.”

[LST @LongShortTrader]

“On just $1 a day, you can get as fat as possible.”

- Olive Garden

[Dexerto @Dexerto]

Olive Garden is bringing back its Never Ending Pasta Pass for the first time in six years

The $100 pass gives customers unlimited pasta dishes for 13 weeks with no limit on visits

[LST @LongShortTrader]

@John_Chungus_5 @calvinfroedge Looks like a scene from a Hangover movie

[LST @LongShortTrader]

Some idealize long term investing (investing with time horizon of 3-5 years +).

But as I see it, all investing is hard, including long term investing.

$IBM , QED

Just because TCI or Buffett are good at it doesn’t mean it’s not hard. The exceptions don’t make the rule.

[LST @LongShortTrader]

$IBM as of today is underperforming $SPY over a 5 year time horizon.

$IBM as of yesterday was handily outperforming $SPY over a 5 year time horizon.

Investing is hard, Q.E.D.