It’s remarkable how much of life is about finding something to work on that gives you energy and surrounding yourself with people you love and then ruthlessly and militantly blocking out every single thing that gets in the way of maximizing your time spent on those two things
It's Sunday June 12th, 2016 and the world is mourning the victims of the Pulse nightclub shooting. Trump, who recently clinched the Republican Party nomination, posts on Twitter that Obama should leave office over the shooting.
You walk to a nearby cafe thinking about the possible implications of Move 37 (played a few months prior) and how neat the SpaceX reusable rockets are.
On the way, a mysterious gentleman pulls a newspaper out of his cloak and hands it to you. It's dated June 12th, 2026.
Top Headlines:
- Elon Musk Becomes World's First Trillionaire as SpaceX IPO's
- Department of War Publishes Third Release of Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena Files
- Citing Safety Concerns, Trump Administration Places Anthropic's New 10T Parameter AI Models Under Export Control
Huh? Still holding the newspaper, you look up... but the mysterious gentleman has already vanished. You look down... the headlines are also gone. Sipping your coffee, you think to yourself "Wow, these art students sure are are getting stranger and strfr!"
Before heading home, you find yourself checking the price of BTC... honestly, $600 per BTC seems pretty high. Maybe it's time to sell??
1.1. Question 28: What happened 1973 and 1974 when your investment firm lost over half?
Charlie: Oh, that’s very simple. That’s very easy. That’s a good lesson. That’s a good question. What happened is the value of my partnership where I was running, went down by 50% in one year. Now the market went down by 40% or something. It was a once in 30 year recession. I mean monopoly newspapers are selling at 3 or 4 times earnings. At the bottom tick, I was down from the peak, 50%. You’re right about that. That has happened to me 3 times in my Berkshire stock.
so I regard it as part of manhood. If you’re going to be in this game for the long pull, which is the way to do it, you better be able to handle a 50% decline without fussing too much about it. And so my lesson to all of you is conduct your life so that you can handle the 50% decline with aplomb and grace. Don’t try to avoid it. (applause) It will come. In fact I would say if it doesn’t come, you’re not being aggressive enough.
1.2.
“I regard it as a part of manhood. If you’re going to be in this game for the long haul which is the way to do it. You better be able to handle a 50% decline without fussing too much. Conduct your life so you can handle a 50% decline with aplomb and grace. Don’t try to avoid it. It will come. And if it doesn’t come I’d say your not being aggressive enough”.
Welp, that happened faster than I predicted. Thought it would be end of 2027, then early 2027, but agentic traffic growing so fast that bots have now passed human traffic online for the first time in the Internet's history. https://t.co/2zX5bHdhsa
Welcome to the most asymmetric trade in modern financial history.
The thread below lays out why. The opportunity exists because capital has chased the AI trade while ignoring the physical assets AI requires to run — assets that have quietly become the best-performing asset class of the decade. Since October 2020 when we first called for the commodity super cycle: QCI Total Return +217%, GSCI Total Return +205%, Gold +140%. NASDAQ trails at +130%. S&P 500 at +85%. The top three are all commodities. Yet oil cannot get out of its own way while copper and the broader atom complex prints fresh highs . That is the dislocation. That is the trade.
Get long. Buckle in. Hang on for the ride.
Forgive the longer posts in this thread — attempting to mimic my old 10-bullet commodity takes. On to it.
"We're still running under 30 day breakeven on the dollars we're spending. We're doing a mix of paid marketing and sponsorships."
...none of us own enough $APP
I have been following every $AMZN 's earnings calls closely for over a decade, and I have never seen $AMZN management this excited and bullish on their business as they were on yesterday's call.
Shifting from an investor... to a trader. A few thoughts.
LT Investing died for me in 2022. The nature and structure of markets, the geopolitical paradigm and how asset pricing works today meant I had to shift my approach.
Tech companies’ plans to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on AI infrastructure depend on a one-of-a-kind Dutch equipment maker most Americans have never heard of. https://t.co/JK9qqo34h8
When simulation becomes the norm, it weakens the human capacity for discernment. As a result, our social bonds close in upon themselves, forming self-referential circuits that no longer expose us to reality. We thus come to live within bubbles, impermeable to one another. Feeling threatened by anyone who is different, we grow unaccustomed to encounter and dialogue. In this way, polarization, conflict, fear and violence spread. What is at stake is not merely the risk of error, but a transformation in our very relationship with truth.
Two weeks without mobile internet improved mental health more than antidepressants and reversed roughly 10 years of attentional decline.
Screen time dropped 49% (314 to 161 min/day).
🧡 Number Go Down 🧡
an attempt by @sacha_meyers and myself to comprehensively understand and analyse deflation as an economic phenomenon.
we hope enjoyable as a standalone essay, but more excitingly, the first novel content we are releasing from what will become the second edition of Bitcoin Is Venice, loosely aiming to be published by @BitcoinMagazine Q2 2027 🥳
Incredible profile on @chameleon_jeff and the necessary mindset to succeed in the “game of investing”
Hands down my favorite part was:
https://t.co/i5NC2tE2TX